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That whoosh you just heard? House Democrats have breathed a sigh of relief now that Democrat Rita Hart has withdrawn her challenge to contest the result in the 2nd Congressional District of Iowa, which she lost to Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks by only six votes last November – one of the closest federal elections. in the history of the United States.
Democrats were said to have been worried they would have to vote on whether to overthrow Miller-Meeks, especially as they strongly protested former President Trump and Republicans’ attempts to quash the election from 2020 earlier this year. Additionally, there were fears it would undermine Democrats’ efforts to pass a massive voting rights and electoral reform bill. That, along with the slim Democrats’ majority, suggested it was going to be very difficult for Democrats to reverse the outcome – even if they felt Hart had a valid case.
Moreover, the Republican messages had put the Democrats on the defensive. For example, parliamentary minority leader Kevin McCarthy pretended they were trying to “steal” the election, while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell pointedly called on large corporations and organizations critical of GOP objections to the Electoral College on January 6 to hold Democrats “to the same standard To challenge the Iowa result.
The situation in Iowa was quite unusual, as contested elections are quite rare these days – and reversal of election results is even rarer. As the table below shows, contested parliamentary elections were once commonplace, especially in the years after the Civil War, when many disputes involved congressional races in the south, according to data compiled by Jeffery Jenkins. at the University of Southern California. But now the number has dropped dramatically, averaging just one case every five congresses.
Contested elections were much more common
Average share of contested U.S. House seats, by decade
| Years | Congress | Not contested | Avg. Seats / Congress | Avg. % contested |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1789–1798 | 1–5 | 18 | 90 | 4.0% |
| 1799-1808 | 6–10 | ten | 128 | 1.6 |
| 1809-1818 | 11-15 | 14 | 167 | 1.7 |
| 1819–1828 | 16-20 | 9 | 202 | 0.9 |
| 1829–1838 | 21-25 | 11 | 230 | 1.0 |
| 1839–1848 | 26-30 | 36 | 233 | 3.1 |
| 1849–1858 | 31–35 | 14 | 234 | 1.2 |
| 1859–1868 | 36–40 | 50 | 205 | 4.9 |
| 1869–1878 | 41–45 | 75 | 273 | 5.5 |
| 1879–1888 | 46–50 | 60 | 312 | 3.8 |
| 1889–1898 | 51–55 | 85 | 347 | 4.9 |
| 1899–1908 | 56-60 | 34 | 375 | 1.8 |
| 1909–1918 | 61–65 | 36 | 418 | 1.7 |
| 1919–1928 | 66–70 | 29 | 435 | 1.3 |
| 1929-1938 | 71–75 | 30 | 435 | 1.4 |
| 1939–1948 | 76-80 | 17 | 435 | 0.8 |
| 1949-1958 | 81–85 | 12 | 435 | 0.6 |
| 1959-1968 | 86–90 | 15 | 436 | 0.7 |
| 1969-1978 | 91–95 | 15 | 435 | 0.7 |
| 1979-1988 | 96 to 100 | 9 | 435 | 0.4 |
| 1989–1998 | 101–105 | 6 | 435 | 0.3 |
| 1999–2008 | 106–110 | 8 | 435 | 0.4 |
| 2009-2020 | 111–116 * | 4 | 435 | 0.2 |
In the past 50 years, the House has voted only once to overturn the outcome of an election: in 1985, the Democratic-controlled House investigated and recounted the votes in the 1984 election for the 8th district of the Indiana Congress and determined that Democratic Representative Frank McCloskey won by four votes after the Republican candidate led by 418 votes after a state-led recount. The House then voted 236 to 190 to seat McCloskey, prompting House Republicans to stage a walkout.
But Democrats had a much larger majority in 1985 than they do today, so they could have afforded 30 or more defections when they voted for McCloskey’s seat. By comparison, fewer than five “non” Democrats could have derailed an attempt at Hart’s seat because Democrats currently only hold a majority of 219 to 211 seats. And some Democrats had made it known privately – and even publicly – that they did not want to vote to topple Miller-Meeks.
Ultimately, the math wasn’t there for Democrats to reverse the outcome, and the potential fallout doesn’t seem to be worth it either.
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