America is in a race to vaccinate before variants overwhelm us

America is in a race to vaccinate people before the country is overwhelmed by variants that trigger a fourth wave of COVID-19.

Why is this important: Spring arrived, and when cases dwindled, hope arose for a more normal summer. But experts warn that will only happen if people keep their social distances, wear masks and get vaccinated as soon as they can.

Inventory: Growing evidence shows that all three licensed vaccines currently offer protection against variants, Larry Luchsinger, assistant member of the nonprofit New York Blood Center, told Axios.

• But Luchsinger and several other experts warn vaccinations need to ramp up in the United States and around the world before a more serious variant emerges and renders the first generation of vaccines ineffective.
• Experts aren’t the only ones worrying: A recent Harris poll found that a majority of Americans from all political parties are either “somewhat” or “very” concerned about the variants.

What is happening: Viruses are constantly mutating, most of the time without impacting public health, unless the changes converge in a trait beneficial to the virus. For the most part, these changes did not have a significant impact on SARS-CoV-2.

• None of the variants currently in circulation have been labeled by the CDC as “high consequence,” which would require serious medical countermeasures.

Yes, but: The agency is monitoring five “variants of concern” that may alter public health measures by having characteristics such as increased transmissibility, more severe disease or higher death rate, and the ability to interfere with treatments or the effectiveness of vaccines.

• These five variants, and the places where they were originally detected, are: B.1.1.7 (UK), P.1 (Japan / Brazil), B.1.351 (South Africa), B. 1.427 (California) and B. 1.429 (California).

“The B.1.1.7 is a super-spreader, in a sense. It has a greater chance of spreading – about 50% to 70% more likely, ”says Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics science at IHME at the University of Washington.

• This variant is mainly responsible for the rise of several hot spots in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin and elsewhere, Mokdad tells Axios.
• B.1.1.7 tends to dominate other variants in one community, has been found to double roughly every 7-10 days, and now accounts for about 26% of cases nationwide.
• Good news: Vaccines are effective against this. Bad news: It is more contagious and can lead to complications or death. Additionally, only 150 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered in the United States so far.
• “Basically we are in a race against time, where we have to make sure that everyone who is eligible for a vaccine has access and gets it in order to ensure that the cases will continue to go down until the end of the summer, ”said Mokdad said.

Californian variants (B.1.427 and B.1.429) are about 20% more transmissible than the original SARS-CoV-2, “but the vaccines are still fantastic and do a really good job,” says Stacia Wyman, a genomics researcher who heads the sequencing effort within the Innovative Genomics Institute at UC Berkeley.

• “But I’m a little worried because I feel like the seats have opened up too early. Just because business is declining doesn’t mean that it’s safe to eat next to someone or ‘go to a bar,’ Wyman adds.

The South Africa and Brazil variants (B.1.351 and P.1) seem to make current vaccines slightly less effective in experimental data. B.1.351 is also about 50% more transmissible, but the rate for P.1 is not yet known, according to the CDC.

• “B.1.1.7 seems to be ahead of B.1.351 and P.1 at least for now. Although they are of concern, they do not play a big role in our epidemiology at this time”, Caitlin Rivers, senior researcher at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, tells Axios.

To note: The E484K mutation, nicknamed Eek, is also under close surveillance.

• This is “of particular concern” because it has appeared in different variants (B.1.351, B.1.1.28 and now B.1.1.7), may help the virus escape the immune system, and may become resistant to current vaccines and to monoclonal antibodies. treatments, says Allison Greaney, a graduate student at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

And after: Strengthening the US genomic surveillance strategy and contact tracing programs is essential, according to Rivers. The American Rescue Plan Act had $ 1.75 billion for surveillance that “will build our capacity,” she said.

• Developing new technologies to explore the role that biomarkers or other characteristics of a person play in leading to different responses to the virus and its variants would be “a real technological leap,” says Luchsinger.
• Second generation vaccines are already in development. For example, Moderna has just started the Phase 1 clinical trial of its variant of the COVID-19 vaccine which aims to treat key mutations in the South African variant.

The bottom line: “Summer could be very good for us, provided we behave for the next two weeks” with social distancing, masking and vaccination, Mokdad says.

Go further: Check out our new live coronavirus variant tracking.