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The return of the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game after a year without any events is quite exciting. Add to that this season’s Home Run Derby will take place in the rarefied airs of Denver’s Coors Field with long-ball specialists including Shohei Ohtani, Joey Gallo and Pete Alonso highlighting the pitch and, well, tonight. is going to be a lot of fun.
To celebrate the midsummer festivities, we asked ESPN MLB pundits Alden Gonzalez, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to predict everything from who will hit the longest home run of the entire derby to who will provide. the moment we are all talking on Monday night about the team that will emerge victorious from the Midsummer Classic and the game they want to see the most.
Check out our predictions ahead of Monday night’s fun and come back for live updates during the Home Run Derby and our biggest takeaways after a Long Ball King is crowned in Denver.
Watch: All-Star Home Run Derby, 8 ET on ESPN
Who will win the Home Run Derby?
Past: Ohtani. It’s my fault.
Schoenfield: What, you want me to bet against Ohtani? Certainly not.
Olney: Alonso. He won in 2019 despite the fact that his cousin was really, really nervous and struggling to pitch strikes. Now he has bench coach Dave Jauss throwing him – and you can see him setting off on an incredible momentum.
Rogers: Gallo. He finished the first half with 11 home runs in his last 12 games. He will wear it until the derby.
Gonzalez: I’m going to go against the grain here and choose Trevor Story. He knows the park well, of course, and has actually walked a greater distance on average on the circuits than Ohtani. (Yes, with 21 homers less. And he plays half of his games at Coors Field. But come on, work with me here.) Specifically, that would be just a cool time for a Colorado Rockies fan base that is. still mourns the departure of Nolan Arenado and will soon do the same for Story.
Who will hit the longest home run of the evening and how far?
Past: Joey Gallo, 496 feet.
Schoenfield: While Ohtani has certainly pulled off a few taps this season, I’m going with Gallo as well. He hit a 495-foot homerun throughout his career in 2018, and since 2017 he and Giancarlo Stanton are tied with 16 homers of at least 450 feet. Now factor in the elevation of Coors Field and I’m off with a 529ft explosion.
Olney: Ohtani. Moon stroke; I will say 586 feet, in honor of Frank Robinson, who has hit so many home runs in his career.
Gonzalez: It’s Ohtani, without a doubt. Mike Trout thinks he could ‘leave the stadium’, which seems impossible given the distance and height of Coors Field’s roof in right field. But it’s Ohtani … at Coors Field … minus the basement … hitting baseballs that will likely be coiled very tight. I will go with 515 feet.
Roger: Ohtani will throw one over the Rockies at the start of the contest. It will go to 509 feet.
What moment will we all be talking about long after this Home Run Derby is over?
Olney: Something that Ohtani does – whether he wins or loses or destroys the upper deck at Coors Field.
Past: Ohtani is going to have a ride for the ages. While the Derby format might mean it doesn’t win everything, it will do in 2021 what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did in 2019.
Schoenfield: Ohtani defeated Alonso 23-22 in the second round, including a five-straight 450-foot run that puts Coors Field into a frenzy.
Gonzalez: I think Ohtani will be the story here, but I also think Gallo is going to get hot and put on an epic ride at some point. Gallo would only face Ohtani in the final, and it would be a really fun duo.
Roger: I agree with Jeff. At the start, Ohtani will come out and hit like 10 consecutive pitches. We might not see him in the final, but we’ll talk about this first round.
Who will win Tuesday’s All-Star Game and by what score?
Schoenfield: The American League wins 11-10 as the batters go wild to tie 21 points in the 1998 All-Star Game in Coors.
Past: National League, 3-2.
Gonzalez: I agree with Dave. Let’s go with the American League victory by a score of 13-8. More importantly: The offense has increased over the past few weeks, in part due to Major League Baseball’s crackdown on foreign substances, and it will reach another level in this environment.
Olney: American League to increase winning streak to eight; I will say 7-3.
Roger: The NL is stacked on the mound. They win 7-3.
Who is your choice of All-Star Game MVP?
Olney: Everyone will be looking for a reason for Ohtani to be the MVP, which will be a boon for the night – and let’s face it, he’s more likely to do damage than anyone else, on the mound and to the plate. The calculation says: Ohtani.
Schoenfield: Rafael Devers goes 3-for-3 with a home run, a double and four RBIs.
Past: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Gonzalez: Guerrero registers three hits, including two for extra goals, and paces the AL.
Rogers: Nick Castellanos. Why? Because he’s the kind of player who wants be the All-Star MVP. It’s good enough for me.
What’s the All-Star Game you can’t wait to see?
Schoenfield: Well, Ohtani would have beaten Jacob deGrom, but deGrom won’t pitch, so let’s go with Ohtani’s throws of the inning. Hopefully it will be early in the game when the NL starters are still around, as I would love to see him take on Tatis and shoot some fast balls at 100mph.
Olney: Tatis versus Ohtani. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but it will be the chicest match in All-Star Game history.
Gonzalez: I really hope we see Ohtani take on Tatis, as they are arguably two of the most dynamic and fascinating players in the sport. I’m also interested to see how Ohtani reacts to the potential launch in this game. He would probably do it in relief, which he’s not really used to, and will have to find time to warm up at some point between innings. Just watching him walk to the bullpen would be a cool moment.
Rogers: I’ll take Aroldis Chapman against Tatis with the match on the line, please. Tatis wins this battle.
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