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We’re only a few weeks away from the start of training camps across the NFL and soon after we’ll be heading out for races for the start of the 2021 regular season. Although you can’t beat the streak. Legitimate NFL action that takes place during the season, I admit I also love the last few weeks of summer. Not only are there position battles to digest, but the time is spent analyzing each team in the league and trying to predict how each will perform throughout the year (I also like to use this period to put the finishing touches on my fantasy football preparation project in what will no doubt be a .500 season on my part, but that’s a conversation for another day).
Trying to understand some of these teams and their prospects for a successful 2021 season has been a recent focus here at CBS Sports. My colleague Cody Benjamin recently discovered some of the league’s most underrated teams ahead of this season and now it’s my job to go in the opposite direction. Yes, we will be highlighting some of the clubs which are a bit overrated as we are on the doorstep of the camps opening. We’ll be using the Over / Under win totals and Super Bowl odds along with some extra odds on William Hill Sportsbook as some of the key barometers as we take the temperature of these teams and highlight why they may be a little too high. . .
Super Bowl Odds: +1400
Over / Under Total Wins: 10 (Over -150)
If all goes well for the 49ers in 2021, they could easily win the Super Bowl. With that said, when does every piece fall into place perfectly for an NFL team? The Niners are currently tied for fourth best odds to win Super Bowl LVI and are tied for second best odds to win the NFC.
While there are a lot of talents to love on this list, there are some pretty important questions. First off, what’s wrong with the quarterback? San Francisco has been making waves this offseason by moving up to the third overall pick to ultimately select North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, signaling he is the franchise’s future sub-center. Despite this monumental move, the team still clung to former franchise QB Jimmy Garoppolo.
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The common thought is that Garoppolo will at least start the year as a starter for the 49ers while Lance – who has played at FCS level for the Bison – will develop behind the scenes. While the ideal situation for San Francisco is for Garoppolo to play and perform well in 2021, and then hand Lance the starting job in 2022 after a year of seasoning, that may be too much of a demand. When in good health, Garoppolo has shown he can lead a team to the Super Bowl. The problem, however, is that he is never healthy. He’s only played a full season in the league at this point (which was precisely the year San Francisco qualified for Super Bowl LIV). With that in mind, Garoppolo’s sustainability is hardly something you can bring to the bank. If he falls, the Niners can throw Lance into the deep end a little sooner than they want. It’s also worth noting that a rookie quarterback has never won a Super Bowl and couldn’t even make it to the big game. Essentially, you’d be asking Lance to make NFL history right off the bat if he’s pushed as a starter at any time.
Finally, it’s also worth pointing out that San Francisco has lost defensive coordinator Robert Saleh this offseason and no longer has corner veteran Richard Sherman, who was playing at an All-Pro level in that Super Bowl race a few years ago. years.
Super Bowl Odds: +2500
Over / Under Total Wins: 8.5 (Over -130)
The Broncos are a weird team to try and project. There is no better proof than Cody having them as an underrated team before 2021 when I consider them a bit overrated. They’re tied for the sixth-best chance to win the title this year and it depends only on their ability to acquire reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers as he continues to feud with the Packers. While it appears Rodgers is firm in his desire to be traded out of Green Bay and Denver continues to be seen as the favorite to land him, it’s a pretty big if and not something I’d be ready for. to throw money at when looking at a future bet to win the Super Bowl.
Yes, the Broncos have some interesting offensive position players and a defense that could easily be a top 10 unit this year, but their cap is capped with what they currently have as a quarterback. Right now, Denver is gearing up for a training camp battle between 2020 starter Drew Lock and veteran Teddy Bridgewater. It doesn’t matter who comes out on top and wins the starter job, it doesn’t really change my opinion as to whether this team can be a viable threat in the AFC. Again, if Rodgers ends up at Mile High, it’s a whole different ball game. But with that roster currently being built – especially in the quarterback – it’s hard to have much confidence that the Broncos will live up to some of those high odds that have been put on them.
Super Bowl Odds: +3000
Over / Under Total Wins: 9 (Over -150)
New England grabbed the headlines this offseason, thanks in large part to its free agent spending spree. This foreshadows the Patriots will be able to bounce back quite well from their under-500 campaign in 2020. While all of these players are talented and much-needed additions for a Patriots team that lacked top talent per season. When was the last time the team that broke the bank in free agency turned around and won the Super Bowl or even come close?
Adding the tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith should help the New England offense, but this unit still has some question marks. Will Cam Newton improve on a 2020 season where he struggled powerfully in the passing game? If not, will first-round rookie Mac Jones be able to learn Josh McDaniels’ complex offense to the point that he can start over on Newton? Also, is the wide receptor group good? The Patriots have moved on to add Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, but this unit still lacks a true No.1 option.
Defense is expected to improve after the arrival of Matt Judon, Kyle Van Noy and Jalen Mills as well as the return of Dont’a Hightower, giving New England some hope for a fight in the division. However, the Patriots will have to work things out with star corner Stephon Gilmore, who is currently resisting due to a contract dispute. If they can lock him up and fix this, Bill Belichick’s defense should be tough. Having said that, can they score any points?
Super Bowl Odds: +1400
Over / Under Total Wins: 10.5 (Less than -130)
The Rams are one of the sexy picks to win the Super Bowl this year, and for good reason. They improved at quarterback after making the successful trade for Matthew Stafford who sent Jared Goff back to Detroit. This change creates a much higher cap for Los Angeles, although it could possibly shorten its championship window. Although I love the job and overall I love what the team did in the offseason, I have some pause on how we talk about it. I think Tom Brady’s immediate success in his first year with the Buccaneers clouded the minds of fans about how difficult it was to change teams and fight instantly. It’s not easy to get out of an offense when you’ve had your entire 12-year NFL career and expect to be so masterful in a short story after just one summer of experience. I’m also a little curious how Stafford will fare in the playoffs if the Rams pull off a deep run. These will be uncharted waters for the former No. 1 overall pick, who is 0-3 in all three of their playoff games at this point.
Meanwhile, the Rams have lost star defensive coordinator Brandon Staley to the Chargers this offseason. Raheem Morris will replace him as DC and I will be interested to see if this unit continues to sail the way it has in recent years. The presence of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey will certainly make Morris’ life easier as he transitioned into the role, but will he have the same impact as Staley? It remains to be seen.
Again, I’m high on the Rams and expect them to be a playoff team, but maybe I’m not as high as the general public in the NFL in terms of the Super Bowl given the big changes at key locations, making it technically an overrated touch.
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