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Hardware announcements are rare, but we’ve seen two major stories emerge in less than two weeks.
First, Nintendo dispelled the Switch Pro myth by unveiling the Switch OLED model; almost the same as the standard version, but with a bigger and better screen mainly for those who play in portable mode.
Then, the day the pre-orders for the OLED model went live, Valve dropped the bombshell that the Switch-type portable gaming PC actually existed. The company has announced three versions of the Steam Deck, which will start shipping in December – although you can wait quite a while if you only register your pre-order today.
Having already shared our own thoughts, we reached out to various analysts to get their thoughts on each new machine and the strategies behind them, and those who were able to comment agreed on one thing: despite the form factor. similar, the two devices are not in direct competition.
“[Steam Deck appeals to] a large audience when you include inactive Steam users who could be invigorated by this new product ”
Piers Harding-Rolls, Ampere Analysis
“The Steam Deck is for die-hard Steam users who want to access their library on the go, and perhaps PC gaming newbies who want to be on Steam but with the convenience that only consoles offer,” said the CEO and founder of Kantan Games, Dr. Serkan Toto explains.
“The OLED model is for Switch users who primarily used the standard model in portable mode and now want to upgrade or new buyers opting for the high-end model from the start.”
In terms of business prospects, Toto believes there is “no doubt” that the OLED Switch will move more units, given that it is the more common of the two products. But he adds, “That doesn’t mean the Steam Deck is going to crumble – it won’t – but the audience sizes the two companies are looking at are vastly different.”
Piers Harding-Rolls, head of games research at Ampere Analysis, agrees, adding that he doesn’t even expect the Steam Deck to appeal to many non-Steam games.
“I see this less as a device to reach an entirely new audience and more as a device that enables a new way to play for existing or expired Steam players. Judging by the pre-order numbers leaked, stock availability this year. will be small – – much smaller than Switch OLED, for example – and I think part of this can be explained by the general supply chain issues that occur in technology markets. In this context, the process The pre-orders that Valve has put in place to try and stop the scalpers who buy devices and resell them are great for consumers. ”
Let’s move on to the Switch OLED model first. While not the bloated 4K version many had hoped for, it is nonetheless a potential boost for the Switch during this year’s all-important holiday season – especially at a time when Xbox and PlayStation still suffer from global component shortages when deploying their new consoles (just like Nintendo, to an extent).
“The Switch OLED model makes sense to Nintendo, and my interpretation is that it’s one of many different iterations we’re going to see over the lifecycle of the device,” Toto explains. “I’m aware that I look like a record now, but I think Nintendo will always release a really beefed up Switch, before an entirely next-gen device.”
“The biggest selling point of Steam Deck is clearly the price and the nailing which is still extremely important in our industry”
Serkan Toto, Kantan Games
Since speaking to Toto, Nintendo has – in an extremely rare turn of events – commented on unverified reports on the costs of manufacturing the new device, adding that it had “no plans to launch another model for it. the moment “.
Harding-Rolls views the OLED model as Nintendo’s “sound movement” and is consistent with its previous product strategies.
“Improving the flagship version of the Switch will give the platform a new boost and refresh it for the next few years of the cycle,” he said. “The small price differential over the current flagship means that many subsequent users who were considering the Switch will now opt for the OLED version.
“I think these traditional users will be put into action by the larger screen, its improved readability and the better sound in the context of in-person social gaming. It will also inspire some existing Switch users to upgrade, especially those who use the Switch a lot in portable mode and have the original Switch before the battery upgrades. ”
He predicts that the OLED model will sell around five million units by the end of 2021, after which it “will slowly replace the current flagship. [model]”during 2022. Ampere Analysis expects this to contribute to increased sales of the Switch family of devices, which are expected to sell over 155 million units by the end of 2025. If Nintendo is there manages, that would make Switch the best-selling console of all time, just ahead of lifetime PS2 sales and a million ahead of the DS family, Nintendo’s current record holder.
Harding-Rolls also believes that another Switch is still in the works, but doesn’t expect to see it anytime soon: “I don’t see the OLED Switch as a draft version until a more powerful version of the Switch is released. is marketed. – I don’t expect a ‘Pro’ Switch in 2022 and I think it’s probably too late in the cycle to introduce this kind of device. I think Nintendo will wait to introduce more power into their next-gen console, which I think will launch in late 2024 right now. “
The Steam Deck, meanwhile, is perhaps the most interesting proposition. Even if limited to the Steam marketplace, it would offer a library of titles unmatched by any console, but the ability to access other stores and streaming services makes it one of the most popular gaming devices. open to date.
But, Harding-Rolls reminds us, it’s not the first portable gaming PC to hit the market, but probably the one with the best chance of commercial success.
“Valve has been successful in delivering a product attractively priced for specs and sacrificing cost-effectiveness of hardware to launch what it hopes will be a new category of PC gaming devices,” he explains. “I would expect this to appeal the most to existing Steam users who wish to have a companion device to play games in different use cases away from their main gaming PC.
“However, that does represent a significant audience when you include outdated Steam users who could be invigorated by this new product. While only a subset of Steam games will be available on Steam Deck – those supported by Proton, which acts as a compatibility layer between SteamOS and Windows games – potential buyers will be delighted to see that it acts like a normal PC and how open the platform is. ”
“I don’t see the OLED Switch as an interim version until a more powerful version of the Switch is released”
Piers Harding-Rolls, Ampere Analysis
Valve is no doubt hoping that enabling portability will lead people to spend more time, and therefore money, on Steam, helping to offset the hardware costs for the business. But Harding-Rolls points out that Steam Deck is an experiment, an experiment that makes it difficult to forecast long-term demand and is therefore “commercially quite risky.”
“The previous gaming hardware that Valve has developed has been hit and miss, but the company is very profitable because of its storefront, which gives it the ability to make those riskier business bets,” he said.
“As Valve aims to establish a broader appreciation of laptops, it will be difficult for PC makers to enter this market and compete with Valve on price, especially since these companies will not have access to content revenue to offset material costs. . I think that might hinder the emergence of this new form factor from third parties. ”
Toto is particularly excited about the Steam Deck – “[it] looks awesome, “he tells us – although he adds that the stick and button layout” looks a bit busy and remote on sight “.
“It’s clearly the price and the nailing that is still hugely important in our industry,” he says. “Of course, the idea is that users will stay on Steam longer and buy even more games, but such a low price can only be achieved by a company the size of Valve.”
The ghost of the steam engines has appeared since Deck’s unveiling, with commentators already wondering if Valve can avoid the mistakes it made before by bringing PC games to more accessible devices. But Toto is more optimistic about the chances of the new handheld.
“It’s true that Valve is struggling to start a computer hardware business, but it makes sense for them to use their tons of money to find ways to expand the reach of the business and try to keep it going. users in their ecosystem with their own devices. ,” he says.
“The Steam Deck is different from other Steam hardware in that there aren’t many portable PC gaming machines on the market right now. Valve seems to have identified a niche among its user base that is quite large. to put resources to develop the Steam Deck.
“Compared to Valve’s excellent VR system, it doesn’t take a lot of the imagination to predict that the Steam Deck will be more successful due to the extremely aggressive pricing, a larger addressable audience, and less competitors to face. “
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