Will I need a boost? Here is what we know.

Text size

Weeks after

Pfizer‘s

the announcement that she would seek authorization for a booster dose of her Covid-19 vaccine has led to open conflict between the company and U.S. health authorities, the tide seems to be turning towards recalls for at least some Americans.

On Thursday, an influential committee that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported early support for giving booster shots of Covid-19 to people who are immunocompromised.

Meanwhile, the Israeli Ministry of Health released data showing that

Pfizer‘s

the vaccine was only 40.5% effective in preventing symptomatic Covid-19 while the Delta variant was dominant in the country, although it remains very effective in preventing severe cases of the disease.

And Friday, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) and its partner

BioNTech

(BNTX) said the U.S. government has agreed to purchase an additional 200 million doses of their Covid-19 vaccine, a purchase that will place the number of doses of messenger RNA-based Covid-19 vaccines purchased by the States. United well above the number required to give each American two doses.

The companies do not mention the booster doses in their press release, and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in a statement that the doses “will help the US government ensure widespread access to vaccines next year.”

The US government has, however, already purchased 600 million doses from Pfizer and

Modern

(MRNA) combined, enough to immunize virtually the entire American population. This suggests that newly purchased doses are likely being purchased for the purpose of having doses on hand for a recall campaign, should regulators decide to approve one.

The developers of messenger RNA-based Covid-19 vaccines have argued for months that booster doses will be needed. The assumption of at least one short-term surge market is likely built into the actions of companies like Moderna and BioNTech.

On Friday, BioNTech shares were up 1.4% in pre-market trading, while Moderna shares were up 1.3% and Pfizer shares were down 0.2%.

S&P 500

Futures rose 0.4% as the market wiped out Monday’s rout when concerns over Covid-19 caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop 2.1%.

Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the United States, with the average number of new daily cases now increasing by 180% in the past two weeks, according to the New York Times.

“It seems likely that a 3rd dose of vaccine will be needed at least for the elderly / immunocompromised, if not more,” wrote Evercore ISI analyst Josh Schimmer in a note released Thursday.

At a meeting Monday of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which sets recommended vaccination schedules in the United States, a CDC official told the committee that people with compromised immunity do not respond as well to Covid vaccines. 19 than healthy people, and that the data suggest that a booster dose increases both their antibody response and the proportion of respondents.

The CDC official noted in the presentation that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration must allow a booster dose of the vaccine in immunocompromised people before ACIP can allow it. ACIP members were in favor of recommending a booster for immunocompromised people, according to one the Wall Street newspaper minutes of the meeting.

Meanwhile, Israel’s health ministry on Thursday released figures reflecting its data on the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine during a recent four-week period in which the Delta variant was dominant in the country.

The ministry said the vaccine was 39% effective in preventing infection with the virus that causes Covid-19 and 40.5% effective in preventing symptomatic Covid-19, but 88% effective in preventing hospitalizations due to Covid-19, and 91.4% effective at preventing what he called “serious Covid-19,” a category that includes deaths from the virus.

These figures seem to contrast with the findings published in the New England Journal of Medicine this week by scientists from Public Health England, a government health agency in the UK, who wrote that Pfizer’s vaccine efficacy against the Delta variant was 88% after two doses.

In a statement to BarronPfizer said no variant, including Delta, has escaped the protection of its Covid-19 vaccine.

“An ongoing analysis of the Phase 3 study showed decreased efficacy against symptomatic infections over time – from 95 percent in the first two months to 80 percent low to medium after 4-6 months after the second dose, ”the company said. “Initial data from a third dose of the current vaccine shows that a booster dose given at least 6 months after the second dose causes high neutralization titers against wild type and beta [variant]. “

Pfizer said it will release more data on the analysis and share its data with the FDA and other regulators in the coming weeks. He said if a third dose of his original vaccine doesn’t protect against Delta, he could make a bespoke version of his vaccine to protect against that strain or any other within 100 days.

Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at [email protected]