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Both themes could provide a glimpse of what will come in next year’s midterm election, with progressives poised to take on veteran Democrats in multiple primaries and Trump seeking to settle old scores and oust his critics. within the party.
In the strongly Democratic 11th District, which stretches from Cleveland to Akron, Cuyahoga County Democratic President and establishment-backed County Council member Shontel Brown – who was backed by Hillary Clinton, Representative Jim Clyburn and the Congressional Black Caucus – defeated former state Senator Nina Turner, a longtime ally of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Turner remained critical of Clinton after the conclusion of the primary in 2016 and in 2020, once compared voting for Biden to eating half a bowl of human excrement.
Meanwhile, Republican voters in Ohio’s 15th District – which includes parts of Columbus and rural areas south of the city – have selected Mike Carey, a Trump-endorsed coal lobbyist. Carey’s victory averted potential embarrassment for Trump a week after a candidate he had backed lost to another Republican in a second round of Congress in Texas.
Both primaries drew attention due to the nationally known personalities involved. But neither should be competitive in special general elections. Brown is now almost certain to win the 11th District seat on Nov. 2, while Carey is the big favorite in the 15th District.
Here are four takeaways from the Ohio primaries:
The establishment defends itself
Progressives saw Ohio a chance to lead the more left-wing Democratic House caucus. Turner – a longtime ally of Sanders who became a national figure before any member of the left-wing “Squad” was elected to Congress – is said to have joined their ranks.
But, in what could be a glimpse of how establishment forces will rally to protect incumbent Democrats facing major challenges next year, more moderate Democrats have fought back. On crowded ground, they rallied around Brown, a candidate more likely to support Biden and his program in Washington.
And again, it was Clyburn – the kingmaker in the 2020 Democratic primary, when his endorsement propelled Biden to a massive victory in the South Carolina primary and a game three days later, the Super Tuesday – playing a central role.
Clyburn intervened when rapper and activist Killer Mike, appearing at a campaign event with Turner, said House Democrat No.3 was “insanely stupid” in backing Biden without getting more concessions. Clyburn backed Brown and warned that leftist “sloganings” – such as calls for police funding – are politically damaging.
The political arm of the Congressional Black Caucus backed Brown, and Clyburn and other leading black Democrats campaigned for her on the race’s closing weekend.
2016 loop
The race between Turner and Brown provided a glimpse of how Democrats never completely got past the 2016 presidential primary. It even pitted Clinton, who backed Brown, against Sanders, who campaigned for Turner – l one of his most loyal allies in his two presidential campaigns.
Seen through this lens, however, it should come as no surprise that Turner encountered some severe headwinds.
The 11th Ohio District backed Clinton against Sanders by a 2: 1 margin in 2016. Turner started the race with a financial edge and the advantage of years of national television appearances as an expert. and pro-Sanders substitute. But there was still room for Brown’s support to grow.
In the final weeks of the race, Brown and his allies were spending more than Turner and his supporters on TV commercials.
Jewish voters and pro-Israel groups played an important role along the way. The Democratic Majority’s super PAC for Israel has spent a lot against Turner, who has occasionally criticized Israel. And Brown’s support of Jewish Democrats in the district proved crucial – a reality Brown acknowledged in her victory speech, in which she thanked “my Jewish brothers and sisters” and explained how a trip to Israel in 2018 shaped his vision of the United States-Israel. relationship.
Leadership of the Democratic Party
It is difficult to distill much of the Democratic Party leadership on key generational and ideological issues of individual races – especially low turnout primaries in out-of-year special elections like the 11th District contest. Ohio.
Moderate and establishment-aligned figures have now won a streak of significant victories over more progressive candidates, dating back to Biden defeating Sanders in the 2020 presidential primary. In Virginia, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe fended off the challengers for win the primary while running for another term. In New York, centrist Eric Adams won the mayor’s primary.
But at the same time, the progressives claimed their own victories. New York City chose a progressive candidate for the post of comptroller at the same time as it picked a moderate for the post of mayor. Buffalo voters ousted their incumbent mayor in favor of India Walton, a self-proclaimed socialist and political newcomer. A progressive challenger, State Representative Ed Gainey, toppled Pittsburgh mayor Bill Peduto.
What seems clear is that progressives have yet to figure out – especially in high-turnout contests – how to break down the Biden coalition of working-class voters, black voters, and suburban moderates who play an increasingly important role in the Democratic primaries.
Trump approval propels Carey
A week after his misstep in Texas, Trump can again credibly state that his approval is a deciding factor in the Republican primaries.
Trump-backed candidate in Ohio’s 15th District Republican primary Carey has beaten a host of rivals – including one backed by former Rep. Steve Stivers, the man they all wanted to replace.
Trump’s Texas pick had lost a runoff in Congress to another Republican last week, and a second straight loss would have raised serious concerns about whether GOP primary voters – which polls still support overwhelmingly the former president, even though he is toxic with the wider electorate – are interested in continuing to follow his example in the reduced ballot races.
“Big Republican victory for Mike Carey. Big numbers!” Trump, taking a victory lap, said in a statement Tuesday night. “5
The district, which includes part of Columbus and the rural area to the south, is strongly Republican and is expected to remain in party hands in this fall’s special general election. Carey will face Democratic State Representative Allison Russo on November 2.
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