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by Brad Brevet
February 21, 2019
The winter season of the box office is coming to an end, which is good news for the start of the year rather rough for 2019. Fortunately, before all eyes are turned to Mars and Captain Marvel and We, it seems that one of the last big versions of the season seeks to close the file in beauty with the beginnings of Universal How to train your dragon: the hidden world, their first version of DreamWorks Animation since the acquisition of the animation studio in 2016 for $ 3.8 billion. The film has already started well internationally since its launch abroad seven weeks ago and now seeks to maintain momentum in the domestic market. MGM also goes away this weekend Fight with my family, after a limited start last weekend, and Roadside debuts Running the race in moderate version.
At $ 129 million, How to train your dragon: the hidden world carries the lightest budget of the three animated franchise movies, and it looks like a first weekend will be held near its two predecessors. Universal is the third studio to release a film in the How to train his dragon The franchise with the original version of Paramount in 2010 was launched with $ 43.7 million before reaching over $ 217 million gross domestic market and nearly $ 495 million worldwide. Fox took over for the sequel in 2014, which did not show up to its predecessor in the domestic market, making its debut with $ 49.5 million and bringing in more than $ 177 million in the United States, but the film exploded in the world with $ 621.5 million.
At this point, The hidden world has already generated more than $ 181 million in international revenue in 49 markets, ranked # 1 out of 40 and opened the largest openings in the series on 39 of these markets. This weekend, nine other international markets will be added to its national release, including Russia and Spain, and debut in China (3/1) and Japan (8/23) remain to come .
With regard to the domestic arc, the film already has $ 2.5 million in its national coffers through an advanced projection partnership with Fandango.com that took place on February 2. Stealth performance nearly doubled the $ 1.3 million in ticket sales from the partnership between Amazon Prime and Sony before the launch of Transylvania Hotel 3, which debuted with $ 44 million last July.
That said, Hidden world will open in 4,259 theaters from which the studio anticipates an opening of approximately $ 40 million. On the basis of what we see, it would be the lowest level with our research going to start from $ 43 million to $ 45 million. Comps we are focused on including Cars 3 ($ 53.7 million opening) and Kung Fu Panda 3 ($ 41.3 million opening), compared to what we see Hidden world do the paces behind Cars 3slightly behind Kung Fu Panda 3 when viewing IMDb's viewed pages in the two weeks prior to publication. All of this predicted a $ 44 million debut this weekend.
After a first performance that exceeded expectations, Fox Alita: Battle Angel enters its second year as a kind of question mark. He received a solid "A-" CinemaScore crowds on the opening day and the audience score on RottenTomatoes was 94%, with a solid score of 7.6 / 10 IMDb users. The question here is to know if he can continue to outperform. On the basis of what we observe historically, an ideal scenario looks like a drop of about 48% this weekend and $ 14.8 million three-day performance for domestic consumption of $ 63 million by the end of the weekend. This, however, is based primarily on his three-day performance over the three-day holiday weekend, which he had a quick start on the previous Thursday, what kind of effect on his performance this weekend will be to watch.
WB The movie LEGO 2 is looking for a third place because we have to wonder just how much a bite How to train his dragon will come out of its third weekend potential. the LEGO The film debuted well below expectations and is expected to continue its momentum, as we expect a drop of about 45% this weekend and three days in a row. $ 11.5 million. If our forecasts are maintained, we expect a cumulative total of $ 85 million.
The fourth place is where MGM's expansion is Fight with my family, whose studio debuted in four different venues last week with an average weekend per theater of $ 34,695. This weekend, the film will expand to 2,711 theaters and industry expectations base on a performance of around 8 to 10 million dollars. Based on historical performance and an overview of the display performance of IMDb pages on the eve of publication, we anticipate higher or even potentially higher performance, thanks to a powerful "A" CinemaScore and at a score of 93%. on RottenTomatoes.
WB and New Line complete the top five Is not it romantic, which has met expectations last weekend and is expected to dive around -43% around this weekend for a $ 8 million and more three days and a cume approaching $ 35 million by the end of the weekend.
Elsewhere in the top ten, STXFilms The rise will strive to reach a maximum of $ 100 million by the end of the weekend if it manages to record a decline of nearly 34% in three days. At the moment, we are planning to barely make the note with a $ 3.6 million three days.
The last new "wide" outing of the weekend is actually more a moderate start to the film's release by Roadside Tim Tebowfootball drama produced Running the race. The film will open in 854 places and it would not be at all shocking to see him claim a place in the top ten, possibly at 2-3 million dollars This weekend.
Fox International will debut in the limited version Total Dhamaal in 202 places.
The forecast for this weekend is directly below. This article will be updated on Friday morning with the results of Thursday night's preview followed by Friday's estimates on Saturday morning and a full weekend's recap on Sunday morning.
- How to train your dragon: the hidden world (4,259 rooms) – $ 44.0 million
- Alita: Battle Angel (3,820 screens) – $ 14.8 million
- The movie LEGO 2: The second part (3,833 theaters) – $ 11.4 million
- Fight with my family (2,711 rooms) – $ 10.0 million
- Is not it romantic (3,444 rooms) – $ 8.1 million
- What men want (2,389 theaters) – $ 6.3 million
- Good death 2U (3,212 screens) – $ 4.5 million
- The rise (2,148 theaters) – $ 3.6 million
- Cold pursuit (2,320 rooms) – $ 3.3 million
- Glass (1,440 theaters) – $ 2.3M
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