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For Governor Gavin Newsom, the only thing that matters in the recall election he faces is how California voters fill out the part of the ballot that can keep him in office. That they understand that they also have the right to choose a potential replacement is not part of his equation.
But the singular goal of Newsom and prominent Democrats could be a high-stakes bet with the party’s political and political platform. It could also leave millions of voters who will soon receive a ballot in the mail not knowing they can vote on both questions on the recall ballot – even if their preference is to retain Newsom as governor.
“I think it’s unfortunate that the Democratic Party isn’t giving voters any guidance on what to do on the second question,” said Kim Alexander, president of the non-partisan California Voter Foundation. “This is going to leave a lot of people confused. “
And if a majority of voters voted to kick Newsom out, it could produce a new governor chosen by only a small fraction of the electorate.
“I know a lot of very smart and very political action people who still don’t seem to understand that there are two questions on this reminder ballot,” said Marcia Hanscom, longtime environmental activist and Party delegate. state democrat. “And the answers to these two questions are essential. “
The confusion over the rules for recall is understandable. It has been almost 18 years since the first statewide recall election in California, when a majority of voters ousted the government of the day. Gray Davis and a large majority have chosen Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger as their successor from a list of 135 contenders.
The intervening years saw a handful of local and legislative recall elections, but the September 14 contest will be the first of its kind for voters who were not there in 2003 and had no experience with the two-way ballot. Questions. Many of these new entrants may be perplexed, for example, as to why they would be allowed to choose a new governor if they voted to keep the incumbent.
“I can understand why people are wondering,” Alexander said. “It’s a counterintuitive vote.
While some Los Angeles County voters will begin receiving ballots this week, most counties will begin distribution one week from Monday. National and local election officials say they intend to communicate to voters that the two issues – whether Newsom should be removed and who should take his place in the event that it does occur – are separate from one of the other and can both be answered. But Newsom’s campaign largely claims that the second question does not exist.
“Leave it blank,” Nathan Click, a Newsom adviser, said of the replacement election. “Voting no on the recall is the only way to block the Republican takeover and prevent a Republican takeover of California.”
This message, while simple, is misleading. Twenty-two of the 46 replacement ballot candidates are not registered with the Republican Party: nine are Democrats, three are minor party affiliates and 10 are “no party preference” candidates.
Hanscom, who expressed disappointment that Newsom has not done more so far to tackle climate change, plans to vote against the recall nonetheless. On the second question, however, she leans for a vote for criminal defense attorney Dan Kapelovitz, one of two Green Party candidates on the replacement ballot.
“I’m afraid that if [Newsom] doesn’t get 50% plus one, so who could we end up with? Hanscom asked.
Neither Democratic leaders nor powerful party-aligned interest groups have given guidance on how to deal with the second ballot question.
The governor’s powerful allies, however, have publicly and privately discouraged established Democrats from throwing their hats in the recall ring. In doing so, they said it was important to avoid a repeat of 2003, when then-Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat, urged party voters to reject Davis’ recall, but also ran as a replacement candidate as election insurance policy.
No Democrat on this year’s recall ballot has the electoral gravity Bustamante brought to the 2003 race, in which he finished second behind Schwarzenegger. The only Democrat with a measurable name identification is Kevin Paffrath, a real estate investor from Los Angeles and host of a self-proclaimed YouTube channel that has not held a position.
But it is also likely to have limited scope. A recent UC Berkeley Institute for Government Studies poll and co-sponsored by The Times found that Paffrath was the choice of only 3% of likely voters, tied for fifth place with the TV star -reality Caitlyn Jenner.
The presence of Bustamante and others on the ballot may help explain why so many voters answered the two recall questions in 2003. Of the 9.4 million Californians who voted that year, only about 755,000 left the second part blank. Much more could do it this time around: 40% of all Democrats polled in the Berkeley / Times poll said they had no intention of filling the second half of the ballot, possibly leaving Republicans to dominate in the poll. race between replacement candidates.
As the deadline for applicants has passed, the only option for those who want another option is a written application. The deadline for this process comes at the end of August, although millions of ballots may have already been cast by that time.
An election with disinterested or discouraged Democrats would be an apocalyptic scenario for the party. It would also be a particularly bitter pill to swallow given that every registered and active voter – over 22 million Californians – will receive a ballot in the mail, an extension of the rules put in place for the November 2020 election due to public health issues in person voting during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Voters can choose to deliver the ballot by mail and participate in person at a polling location in their county on September 14 or a few days before. The month-long voting process is one of the most notable changes since Davis’ recall in 2003, when more than 70% of all ballots were cast in person on election day.
The California Constitution clearly states that voters have the right to impeach Newsom during his tenure, an amendment added by voters in 1911. Less clear, perhaps, is whether the recall ballot should have two questions. The Constitution states that an election to choose a successor should be held “as appropriate”, perhaps recognizing that the removal of a member of the Legislative Assembly, for example, leaves a vacancy which can only be filled by the electors.
“But that’s not ‘appropriate’ when a governor is removed because the Constitution already provides a clear mandate on how a post is to be treated,” said Mark Paul, former deputy state treasurer and author of a book on California government reform. .
“The lieutenant governor will become governor when a vacancy occurs in the governorship,” said Paul, citing section 5 of the California Constitution.
The phrase “where applicable” was adopted by voters in 1974, drafted by a bipartisan reform commission, and removing 1911 language that explicitly required the list of replacement candidates to appear alongside the question of whether the holder had to be revoked. Paul said he believes the current language is ripe for court challenge if Newsom loses.
For now, Democrats are focused on changing their voting chances.
Democrats and Republicans have been saying for some time that the energy of this election is with Republicans, so Newsom’s party members have their work cut out for them.
“I always knew it was going to be tight because of the energy on the Republican side,” said former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who ran unsuccessfully against Newsom in 2018. “And we’ve got it. a lot of work ahead of us. ”
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