AC Governor Gavin Newsom faces bigger-than-expected threat in upcoming recall election

California Governor Gavin Newsom could face a tougher battle in the upcoming recall election than originally anticipated.

Counties will send out ballots to every registered voter in mid-August, giving the Democratic governor a month to increase turnout in the September 14 special election.

The odds may seem in Newsom’s favor, especially as registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state, and the money raised by supporters of the recall is eclipsed by the war chest by nearly $ 47 million from the governor.

However, the complacency of Democratic supporters and the rollout of new health orders in the event of a coronavirus pandemic may pose real threats to Newsom’s chances of survival.

“Democrats haven’t had an emergency, and that’s Newsom’s biggest challenge at this point,” Democratic consultant Michael Soneff said. “His ability to convince Democrats to hand in their ballots within a month is going to make all the difference in whether or not he wins against the recall.”

Recent polls show more voters oppose Newsom’s recall than they support it, but a gap in enthusiasm between Republican and Democratic voters has created uncertainty.

In a poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times in late July, 36% of registered voters in the state would vote for Newsom’s recall, while 51% would vote to keep him in office.

The numbers among likely voters were more evenly divided with 47% in favor of Newsom’s recall and 50% in favor of keeping it.

This indicates disproportionate interest among Republicans, who have been the mainstay of the recall, according to the poll.

Democratic and non-party-preference voters may have less interest in the election because they believe Newsom will easily defeat the recall, the poll found.

“If everyone voted, then Newsom would actually be in a safe place right now. But that’s not the way elections work in this country. I think the governor and his team understand that even his supporters aren’t not so excited about it right now, ”said Dan Schnur, a professor of politics at three California universities who previously headed the California Fair Political Practices Commission.

“Over the next few weeks, you’ll see him spending less time trying to persuade the recall supporters to change their mind, and a lot more of his time and energy just trying to motivate his own base to give it a go. bother to show up, ”said Schnur.

The governor and his campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Newsom’s ads denouncing the recall cover airways and digital spaces in a bid to reach Democratic voters. More recently, an ad featuring Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., condemned the “Trump Republicans” behind the recall effort.

Unions like the California Federation of Labor Also playing a role in the governor’s anti-recall campaign by organizing volunteer canvassing efforts and rallies last week.

But Newsom’s chances are also threatened by its handling of the pandemic, the same politically charged issue that allowed the recall campaign to gain traction last fall.

As Covid cases rise again in California and across the country, Newsom’s response could further stimulate Republican opposition and potentially discourage Democrats from voting in September.

“It will be very difficult for any Republican candidate to beat Gavin Newsom. But Covid certainly can,” Schnur said.

The highly contagious delta variant is the most common cause of new infections in the state, the California Department of Public Health said Thursday.

The CDPH added that California is experiencing “the fastest increase in Covid-19 cases during the entire pandemic”, with 18.3 new cases per 100,000 people per day and case rates increased nine-fold in two months .

In response, the governor issued new pandemic health orders, more recently requiring all of California’s nearly 2.2 million healthcare and long-term care workers to be fully immunized by September 30. , according to the CRPD.

Los Angeles County also reinstated an indoor mask mandate for fully vaccinated people last month, and several other counties in California followed suit last week.

As Newsom left counties to make those decisions, he issued a statewide warrant last month that requires K-12 students to wear masks indoors during the next school year, NBC Los Angeles reported.

The move sparked an intense reaction from state school boards, with an Orange County filing a complaint against Newsom on Wednesday for allegedly “abusing his power” by forcing children to wear masks, according to NBC Los Angeles. .

If Covid conditions worsen and Newsom decides to impose state lockdowns, its chances of surviving the recall could be jeopardized, Schnur said.

“The recall first qualified when closures were the worst last winter. This spring when things started to open up, Newsom’s numbers started to improve. are now heading into a more difficult time for Covid, shutting down again could be a real problem for him, “Schnur said.

The Republican candidates vying to replace Newsom took hold of his response to the pandemic, slamming it during the GOP recall debate last week for his mask mandates and state shutdowns last fall.

Businessman John Cox, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Assembly Member Kevin Kiley and former Rep. Doug Ose all took part in the debate, calling for greater personal autonomy in the pandemic and unless “government overreach”.

Cox called Newsom’s response an “absolute disaster” which resulted in “many more dangers and many more problems.”

Ose addressed Newsom’s K-12 mask mandate, suggesting that parents have the option of moving their children to another school if they object to wearing masks indoors.

“I happen to have great confidence in the ability of people to make their own decisions,” Ose said. “Instead of giving people mandates, we need to give them options.”

Among the 46 confirmed candidates running for the recall election, 24 of them are Republicans.