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COVID-19-related hospitalizations have essentially doubled across much of California in the past two weeks – a troubling trend officials say illustrates the continuing power of the pandemic amid a continuing rise in infections.
Increases of this magnitude have been seen in Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, state data shows, straining healthcare systems to an extent not seen in months.
These counties – the five most populous in California – both reflect and lead the broader trends unfolding in the state. California as a whole saw its total number of coronavirus-positive hospital patients drop from 2,981 on July 25 to 5,973 on Sunday.
“The significant increase in hospitalizations is of great concern,” LA County Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer said in a statement. “With the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, we hope that more people will be vaccinated during this period of very high transmission. “
Officials had warned that it was probably only a matter of time before the latest wave of coronavirus cases in California began to hit hospitals. Throughout the pandemic, the increase in infections typically triggered a corresponding increase in hospitalizations about two weeks later.
Over the past week, California has reported on average just over 11,000 new cases of coronavirus per day, according to data compiled by The Times. This is about 90% higher than the average daily number of cases recorded two weeks ago.
During the same period, the rate of increase in hospitalizations also increased sharply.
Between July 27 and Thursday, hospitalizations in Orange County rose from 215 to 453, which more than doubled in just nine days.
The number of COVID-19 patients rose to 463 on Saturday, the worst number of this type since the end of February, before dropping slightly to 453 on Sunday.
In LA County, hospitalizations have doubled in the past 15 days, from 745 on July 24 to 1,503 on Sunday, also the region’s worst number since the final days of the devastating fall and winter wave. ‘winter.
Hospitalizations fell from 239 on July 26 to 484 on Sunday in San Diego County, and have also at least doubled in the past 15 days in Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties.
Southern California is not an outlier. Across the nine counties of the San Francisco Bay Area, 436 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized on July 22. On Sunday, they were 881.
Likewise, in Sacramento County, hospitalizations doubled from 148 on July 24 to 315 on Sunday. In Fresno County, they doubled from 100 on July 28 to 214 on Sunday.
While the counts have yet to reach the heartbreaking levels seen over the fall and winter, the influx of new COVID-19 patients is just the latest challenge for hospitals and healthcare workers besieged by the state.
In a letter last week, Dr Carl Schultz, director of emergency medical services for the Orange County Health Care Agency, urged area hospitals to take action to reduce unloading times for ambulance patients – thus than the number of hours they devote to diversion. , when ambulances are redirected to other medical facilities.
“It’s not sustainable,” he wrote in a letter Wednesday. “We have not seen an increase in the number of ambulances of this magnitude since the worst days of the second wave in December 2020 and January 2021.”
Since the letter’s release, there has already been progress in terms of reducing diversion hours and patient offload times, Schultz said at a press conference on Monday.
“We are still in an area where I am worried, but we are not in crisis at the moment,” he said.
Across California, according to an analysis by The Times, 14 counties are reporting per capita rates of more than 20 COVID-19 hospital patients per 100,000 population – as bad as the rate of influenza patients hospitalized at the height of influenza season.
The hardest hit counties are in and around the Central Valley, including Sacramento, Fresno, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Solano, Placer, Butte, Kings, Nevada, Yuba, Tuolumne and Amador counties, as well as the counties of Lake and Del Norte in northern California.
Some experts have said that when COVID-19-related hospitalizations exceed 5 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents, now is the time to consider reverting to universal masking.
Southern California’s most populous counties more than doubled or tripled this threshold, with Ventura County reporting 12 hospitalizations per 100,000 population; Orange County, 14; Los Angeles and San Diego counties, 15; Riverside County, 18; and San Bernardino County, 19.
LA County was the first county in Southern California this summer to have a mandatory mask order for indoor public spaces, regardless of vaccination status; Santa Barbara County issued a similar order last week. San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties have not followed suit.
By comparison, the San Francisco Bay Area, which has nine counties, reports 11 COVID-19-related hospitalizations per 100,000 population; while Sacramento County reports 21 and Fresno County reports 22. Sacramento County and all but one of the Bay Area counties have mandated the wearing of masks in indoor public spaces.
Many health officials have characterized the growing hospital census as a warning and equal parts bugle call – demonstrating both the dangers still posed by COVID-19 and the importance of getting vaccinated.
Data continues to show that the vast majority of people infected with, and ultimately hospitalized with, COVID-19 are not vaccinated.
For the week of July 31, the average rate of coronavirus cases among unvaccinated Californians was 33 per 100,000 population per day, nearly five times the comparable rate of vaccinated individuals.
As of last week, Ferrer estimated that the risk of being hospitalized for COVID-19 in LA County was 19 times higher for those who are not fully vaccinated than for those who are.
And in Orange County, supervisor Katrina Foley said Monday that 90% of COVID-19 patients who have been hospitalized have not been vaccinated.
“As one doctor shared with me: Choosing not to get vaccinated is choosing to contract COVID,” she told reporters during a briefing.
Officials and experts have said the latest wave is being fueled by the Delta variant, which is believed to be the most transmissible version of the coronavirus to date.
Scientists have established that people infected with Delta have about 1,000 times more virus particles in their upper respiratory systems than people infected with previous strains of coronavirus.
Experts say Delta’s ultra-contagious nature means it can pass from person to person just four days after an initial infection, instead of the six days with previous strains.
All of this means that Delta can spread rapidly among unvaccinated people, even in areas where immunization coverage is high overall.
“Very few of us are going out [of the pandemic] without contracting COVID disease or getting vaccinated, ”said Dr. Matthew Zahn, Orange County deputy health officer and pediatric infectious disease expert. “And, clearly, getting the vaccine is the safest and healthiest way for us to go.”
Times editors Karen Kaplan and Melissa Healy contributed to this report.
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