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WASHINGTON – Democrats with a track record of winning tough districts are not running for re-election. Republicans take advantage of early fundraising bargains. And, as Donald Trump and Barack Obama both learned the hard way, midterm elections almost always crash against the president’s party.
The first indicators that showed the Democrats were on the verge of making big gains in Congress four years ago are now pointing in the other direction, suggesting that the narrow 220-212 majority in the Democratic House is in grave danger.
“Based on all the factors, you should consider Republicans as the top House majority favorites in 2022,” said David Wasserman, who follows congressional races for the non-partisan Cook report.
“But as we found out in 2020, surprises can happen, and it’s not a done deal,” he said. “The Democrats’ best hope is for Biden’s approval rating to remain above 50% and for Republicans to have a harder time getting their constituents to vote without Trump on the ballot.”
Much remains uncertain about the midterm elections in more than a year – including the congressional districts themselves, thanks to the delayed redistribution process. The Senate, on the other hand, is more like a draw.
House Democrats believe voters will reward them for advancing President Joe Biden’s generally popular agenda of donating money for infrastructure in virtually every district across the country and sending checks directly to individuals. million parents. And they believe voters will punish Republicans for their rhetoric about the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 election.
“Democrats deliver, kick-start the economy, get people back to work, pass biggest middle-class tax cut in history, while Republicans engage in downright violent rhetoric of government theory. plot around lies in the service of Donald Trump, “said Tim Persico. , executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
But the challenges facing Democrats are real and many.
They knew they would face a tough 2022 immediately after 2020, when massive and unexpected GOP gains reduced the Democratic majority to just a handful of seats.
“House Republicans are in an excellent position to regain the majority,” said Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., Who chairs the Republican National Congressional Committee, “but we are not taking anything for granted.”
Emmer and other Republicans say they think they can continue to assert their advantage on divisive issues supported by the “far left” and sow inflation and crime rates higher. “We will continue to hold House Democrats relentlessly accountable for their socialist agenda,” Emmer said.
Representative Ron Kind of Wisconsin, one of seven Democrats representing districts won by Trump, shocked politicians on Wednesday when he announced he would be “out of gas” and not run for a 14th mandate in Congress.
His rural district had tended to be Republican for years. Kind was re-elected last year by around 10,000 votes.
Full tenure is a huge perk – well over 90% of Congressmen are re-elected – and some Democrats fear lawmakers like Kind, who are abandoning transitional districts this year, may be the only ones who can win them.
Representatives Tim Ryan of Ohio and Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania are running for the Senate instead of being re-elected in the Rust Belt Districts on the battlefield. Florida Republican turned Democrat Charlie Crist is running for governor again in a swing zone. Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois, the most recent chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, steps down from a district won by Trump, and Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona opts for another race in a district that does not looks that little blue.
Democrats were quick to note that Kind was facing a rematch with Republican Derrick Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL who endorsed Trump’s lies about the 2020 election and attended the pro-Trump rally in Washington on January 6, entering a restricted area of the Capitol. pitch, although he said he left before the mob turned violent. Asset approved Van Orden Thursday.
And they say they think educated suburban voters who rocked under Trump will stay with them as they see Republicans sticking with Trump and pushing for face mask and vaccine policies that downplay the severity of the coronavirus pandemic. , even though the virus is once again filling hospitals and endangering the new school year.
“In the swing zones, the group that sees this up close and in a personal way is that of working parents, and I think they strive to make sure their kids are safe,” said Cole Leiter. , a Democratic agent who worked on home shopping.
Educated voters also tend to be more reliable voters. And some Republicans have worried about their ability to build Trump’s base when he’s not ruling himself.
After four years in which Republicans were inundated by the “green tsunami” of anti-Trump donations that fueled the Democratic “blue wave”, Republicans are now enjoying exceptionally strong fundraising and are catching up with Democrats by raising a lot of money. money from small donors online.
The House Republicans’ campaign arm overtook its Democratic counterpart in the first half of the year, and it now has more money.
And while vulnerable Republicans struggled to match their challengers in 2018, several frontline GOP members have already achieved impressive runs. Some, like Rep. Young Kim, who last year reclaimed a district in Orange County, Calif. That Democrats fought to win two years earlier, have raised more than $ 1 million over the course of of the last financial quarter alone.
As Republicans learned four years ago, recruiting high-quality donors and candidates can be difficult if donors and potential candidates believe they are being asked to support a lost cause.
So far, no Democrats have come forward to run in an Iowa congressional district the party lost last year by just six votes. In the next district, Abby Finkenauer, 32, who won in 2018 before losing last year, is running for the Senate instead of the House. And some Florida Democrats are increasingly worried about finding candidates for several Miami-area battlefield districts, where Trump and the Republicans have performed better than expected.
Republicans also have the upper hand in the redistribution process, which was delayed by the pandemic and brought forward on Thursday when the Census Bureau finally released more results from its 2020 tally.
The GOP controls more state legislatures than Democrats, so it has the power to redraw 187 districts into 75 for Democrats. And some strongly Democratic states, like California, use independent commissions, making it harder for the party to chart its favor.
It’s much less lopsided than after the last census in 2011, and Democrats feel better prepared this time around because they’ve set up an organization to coordinate their efforts nationwide. But some analysts say Republicans could win the handful of seats they need to reclaim the majority by just redistributing.
Presidential parties almost always lose their first midterm elections, and after the disastrous Democrats ‘bombing’ in 2010, when many vulnerable lawmakers tried to distance themselves from Obama, they say they are sticking with Biden this time around. .
“The biggest challenge is pointing it out so people know that what is happening is because Democrats fought for it and every Republican has opposed it,” said Persico of the Democratic Campaign Committee.
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