In-depth analysis of the 2021 cycle top price forecast

Looking ahead, the remainder of the current cycle can unfold in a number of ways. Here are two scenarios that we plan to play out as long as the tech and on-chain data continues to show strength.

Our price targets are strongly based on time, conditions and combine several forms of analysis. Assuming the price of bitcoin hits major technical targets on the upside and the on-chain metrics give out strong sell signals, the likelihood of a bull market top will increase dramatically.

If the main upside technical targets are tested and the on-chain metrics show little to no signs of significant selling pressure, BTC can easily rise.

As always – the following is not financial advice and the writer’s sole opinion. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the bottom of this page.

Benchmark case: $ 96,000 by December 2021

We believe BTC can reach $ 96,000 by December 2021 in our baseline scenario. BTC will only have to double at current prices (~ $ 48,000 at the time of writing), which we believe is reasonable given the deep depletion of BTC’s supply.

To reach this level of $ 96,000, BTC must first break through the major resistance zone between $ 51.1 and $ 58,000.

During this new major stress test, it is crucial to monitor on-chain metrics and most importantly to verify that long-term holders and entities holding large amounts of illiquid supply are not selling.

If no chain sell signal is flashing, it will likely pave the way for a retest of the current record (~ $ 65,000) recorded in April 2021. The graph below shows a rough estimate of one of the many paths that BTC could take to reach our baseline goal of $ 96,000.

Technical and chain resistance over $ 58,000 is not as heavy as the $ 56 to $ 58,000 area. As new big buyers continue to enter the market and shorts continue to sell off, breaking the previous all-time high won’t require much effort.

Once BTC closes above the current ATH level ($ 64.8,000), we can expect the upside to accelerate as the price of bitcoin enters the price discovery phase. . The latter represents the levels where an asset has never been traded before; therefore, there are no previous resistance levels.

Using the 4-year cycle and BTC halving data, Bitcoin historically peaked in its bull markets at the end of the fourth quarter of the year following the halving.

This indicates that a blowout peak could occur in December 2021 if BTC continues to follow this pattern. The longer-than-expected consolidation between $ 30,000 and $ 40,000 gives Bitcoin less time to form a higher structure. Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that huge parabolic races can happen in a very short period of time, just like the one that happened between January and April 2021 ($ 27,000 to $ 65,000).

Another reason we can expect significantly higher prices later this year is the formation of the Elliott Wave structure since late 2018. Bitcoin appears to have ended Wave 3 on the upside, peaking at $ 64.8,000, with a complex wave 4 correction, reaching $ 28.8,000. With the recent August rally higher, it looks like Bitcoin is entering the fifth final bullish wave, possibly pushing the price of bitcoin significantly above previous all-time highs.

In this scenario, between the historic highs of April-2021 and our baseline target of $ 96,000, we expect the whales to slowly distribute BTC to retailers who continue the rally. The more chain distribution we see, the closer BTC is to a macro high.

The crypto community has discussed the likelihood of the bull market cycle continuing until the start of Q1 or Q2 2022. This needs to be taken into consideration and can be seen as a bullish catalyst. If the bull market continues through early 2022, this actually raises our base target of $ 96,000 to the next confluent levels between $ 110,000 and $ 115,000.

$ 178,000 BTC: the bullish case

We believe BTC can hit our bullish scenario target of $ 178,000 by December 2021 or a bit later, in case the cycle extends into 2022.

This will require minimal selling pressure on the chain, especially as the price of bitcoin exceeds $ 100,000. As long as long term holders continue to hold, even with BTC at $ 100,000, we can easily expect prices to rise.

This scenario depends on the constant exhaustion of supply, where the majority of BTC remains illiquid. The chart below is a rough estimate of the possible path Bitcoin could take to reach the bullish target. The following is just one of the many ways this can be done:

Our upside technical targets found high levels of confluence around $ 178,000 to $ 190,000. It also aligns with various other technical patterns, making it an area of ​​focus for the 2021 bull market top.

In this scenario, we can expect Bitcoin whales and entities with large amounts of illiquid supply to start distributing quickly. Price action at this point will likely have turned parabolic, with $ 10,000 candles printed frequently. At these prices, on-chain valuation metrics such as MVRV could reach peaks from the previous cycle depending on activity on the Bitcoin network.

While those 6-figure goals may seem daunting, they’re less than 4 times more than current levels.

To emphasize this, the scenarios are based on time and conditions. It relies heavily on a variety of on-chain metrics that emit warning signals, especially when the price of bitcoin hits technical targets that are very confluent on the upside.

As of this writing, BTC is currently aiming to validate a major technical buy signal that erupted last week to move from a mid-cycle pullback to a continuation of the bull market.

Ideally, the resistance zone of $ 51.1 to $ 58,000 should be removed with a solid push to retest all-time highs at $ 64.8,000. The next few weeks of price action are critical in determining the base scenario or the bullish scenario.