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One of the most relentless aspects of college football’s realignment is that it cuts through every nook and cranny of college athletics. As leagues reshape, budgets change, and traditional power structures change, there is always a trickle of trends.
With the news of Oklahoma and Texas leaving for the SEC, the whole Big 12 paradigm has changed. The earnings of the 12 big leagues which are expected to eclipse the $ 40 million in the coming years could drop to nearly $ 15 million if the eight teams do not find a partner or a creative way to generate income in their next TV contract. .
This steep drop in income – or the specter of it – will likely mean that the remaining 12 top schools will struggle to remain a destination for top coaches. This means that a countdown has begun for the potential devastating financial fallout to come in 2025, when the conference’s media rights agreement expires.
So, as we take a look at this year’s varsity football coaching carousel – an annual summer exercise that tracks jobs, coaches and assistants that are potentially changing – the most timely trend impacting is the decrease in the ranking of the big 12.
Here are three reverbs to look for in this coaching cycle and beyond.
What happens to Matt Campbell of Iowa State?
The Cyclones head coach has reportedly been top of the wishlist in places like Michigan and USC, both of which are expected to have openings if schools don’t have exceptional seasons.
Campbell has been overly loyal to Ames as he has withstood openings in recent seasons from the highest levels of college and the NFL. Ames has been a perfect bubble for Campbell, who enjoys digging with his team and is ambivalent towards forward-facing parts of the job like media and engaging with boosters.
The state of Iowa has managed to prosper by building what it likes to call a “factory of life”, not a “football factory”.
But with Big 12 revenues set to dwindle and recruiting made more intimidating by the inability to sell a top-tier conference, Campbell could turn to a more traditional football factory.
He pushed the state of Iowa through glass ceilings, including four consecutive bowls for the first time in school history and a decisive Fiesta Bowl victory on the national stage last season. He has built up a staff that is fiercely loyal to him.
Can it go on forever?
With 19 returning starters, it feels like a final call for Campbell at Ames. He should be able to have his choice of college jobs and be interested in the NFL.
Campbell’s dilemma doubles as a problem for the Big 12.
“Can you afford the coach? A Big 12 source asked. “You could base it on current income. But for the future, that’s the uncertain part. The second element is perception. Are you at the same level? Does the coach see it through this lens? Do they think their job has become more difficult? Is recruiting more difficult?
Does this impact Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma and Steve Sarkisian from Texas?
NFL interest in Riley, 37, has been constant over the past few seasons. He fits the archetype of the current youth movement of NFL coaches – game player, quarterback developer and strong leader.
Sarkisian’s impending rejuvenation of Texas, which begins this season, has become much more difficult as he must simultaneously recruit against SEC Schools while selling players for the majority of their Big 12 careers.
Will the wait to get to the SEC be the hardest?
If the start date for OU and Texas going to the SEC doesn’t come until 2025, as the contract says, that puts both schools in an embarrassing vacuum for a few years. Along with the tough sales of recruiting, don’t underestimate the week-to-week misery of playing games in places where fans spit vitriol and wave money at you. That’s a lot of bile to swallow for a career.
Then there’s the notion of Oklahoma in the SEC, where it’s still going to be a running program, but it’s going to have an exponentially more difficult path to the playoffs. The Texas Sports Department’s lack of leadership and facility apathy for much of the past two decades has allowed Oklahoma’s elite leadership, led by athletic director Joe Castiglione, to sprint past the Longhorns. and the rest of the league.
Many of the OU’s strengths in terms of talent, leadership, and facilities will be neutralized in the SEC. It has always been difficult to envision Riley as a college lifer, and that perhaps pushes him into the NFL faster.
As for Sarkisian, Texas does not have the same advantages as Oklahoma. The Longhorns also lack SEC caliber talent on the offensive or defensive lines. The job is completely different from what Sarkisian signed up for. And it got a lot harder before he coached a game.
Will either or both be present in 2025 for the SEC debut? Either way, the road promises to be tough.
Where else will the ripples go?
Neal Brown of West Virginia would be another coach to look out for in this volatile Big 12 environment. He’s been solid at WVU – 11-11 in two seasons – and a good fit. But it would be much harder for him to resist a SEC, ACC, or Big Ten job now, knowing that things like keeping a staff will be much more daunting with the potential for budget cuts with a cleaver.
Also, it will be worth seeing if TCU’s Gary Patterson sticks to the next iteration of the Big 12. He led TCU out of Mountain West and it will be interesting to see his appetite, at 61, to guide TCU. . through the next chapter.
For WVU, TCU and beyond, one of the scariest things for coaches and ADs will be staff retention. The Big 12 staff are more vulnerable to the loss of their top coordinators and coaches in leagues like the SEC, Big Ten and ACC.
Would an assistant like Baylor’s Joey McGuire, a former high school coach in Texas, suddenly be more valuable to an SEC program now that the league’s footprint is deeper in Texas? Would a coveted young assistant like Nate Scheelhaase of Iowa State be more likely to consider a job in the Big Ten? Could a long-standing staple in the Big 12 footprint like Oklahoma State Offensive Coordinator Kasey Dunn look elsewhere?
Every macro hiring and defection decision over the next few years involving a Big 12 coach or school will be made through the lens of realignment. If the best coaches, coordinators and assistants leave, the decline of the league becomes a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
And that’s why the realignment will weigh on the coach carousel.
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