Qantas’ unrealistic plan to restart international flights

Qantas has presented its latest plans to restart international flights. To me that sounds very, very optimistic, and I’d be willing to bet it won’t work out the way Qantas hopes.

How Qantas plans to restore the road network

Qantas has announced its intention to gradually restart international operations from December 2021. This is based on the gradual reopening of international borders by the National Cabinet – in particular, the hope is that the “Phase C” threshold of 80% vaccination rate in the country will be reached by December 2021.

As Qantas restarts its international network, the focus will be on countries with high vaccination rates, including those in North America, the United Kingdom, Singapore and Japan. Let’s take a look at what Qantas is planning …

“Safe” destinations resume in December 2021, others in April 2022

With this plan, Qantas would gradually resume its international service based on vaccination rates in other countries:

• In mid-December 2021, flights would resume from Australia to “COVID-safe destinations,” likely to include Singapore, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada, using 787s and of the A330s.
• From April 2022, flights would resume from Australia to destinations with lower vaccination rates including Bali, Jakarta, Manila, Bangkok, Phuket, Ho Chi Minh City and Johannesburg.
• While I can understand that in theory high vaccination rates should equate to ‘safe destinations’, this does not seem to be the case in reality, and I am not sure the Australian government will view this the way Qantas the fact.

Qantas could fly from Darwin to London

In 2018, Qantas launched nonstop flights between Australia and the UK, specifically between Perth and London. However, due to Western Australia’s “conservative border policies”, Qantas is investigating the possibility of using Darwin instead as a transit point, which has been Qantas’ main point of entry for repatriation flights.

Qantas expects demand for non-stop travel between Australia and London to be even higher after COVID.

A380s could return in July 2022, two will be retired

Qantas currently has a fleet of 12 Airbus A380s, and the airline previously said those planes would not return until 2023 at the earliest. With the last shot:

• Five A380s will be put back into service in 2022 – the Sydney-Los Angeles route will resume with an A380 from July 2022, while the Sydney-Singapore-London route will resume with an A380 from November 2022.
• Of Qantas’ 12 Airbus A380s, 10 would be fitted with the new cabins and returned to service in early 2024, and two would be retired

Qantas could expand Airbus A330 lineup

The Airbus A330 is Qantas’ smallest widebody aircraft, and Qantas has a few changes in store for this aircraft:

• Qantas is working with Airbus to extend the range of the A330-200, allowing it to perform longer transpacific flights; this will be done by increasing the maximum takeoff weight of the aircraft, allowing it to carry more fuel
• Qantas would then fly A330s from Brisbane to Los Angeles and San Francisco

How Qantas CEO describes the restart strategy

Here’s how Qantas CEO Alan Joyce describes the carrier’s strategy to restart flights:

“The prospect of flying overseas may seem distant, especially with New South Wales and Victoria on lockdown, but the current pace of vaccine rollout means we should have a lot more freedom in a few months.

It is obviously up to the government to decide exactly how and when our international borders reopen, but with Australia on track to meet the 80% threshold agreed by the National Cabinet by the end of the year, we must plan ahead what is a complex restart. to treat.

There is a lot of work to be done, including training our staff and the safe return to service of aircraft. We can adjust our plans if circumstances change, which we have had to do several times already during this pandemic. Some people might say we’re overly optimistic, but based on the pace of the vaccine rollout, it’s within our grasp and we want to make sure we’re ready. “

I think Qantas is way too optimistic

I think it’s important to point out that Qantas has outlined its travel restart strategy on several occasions, and so far none have worked. I don’t see what is different.

I see where Qantas is from. The airline needs to start planning how travel might restart because it’s not an overnight process when most of your planes have been parked for 18 months. At the same time, on some level, it looks like an attempt to improve liquidity by selling tickets for flights that will probably never work.

My interpretation of Australian government policy is very different from how Qantas seems to view it. For example, I think the odds of a widespread travel without a quarantine between Australia and the United States before the end of the year are pretty close to zero.

The way I see it:

• Australia has taken a zero-tolerance approach to the coronavirus, and even after widespread vaccination, the country has a strong intention to maintain this for a while, at least based on what politicians have said.
• Australia is going through a major epidemic (by country standards, which are slightly different from Florida standards), and while I am not an epidemiologist, I would be surprised if this can be controlled and brought down to zero, reckoning. given how transferable the delta variant is
• For international travel to restart, something has to look beyond an 80% vaccination rate in Australia – the country has to abandon its zero-tolerance approach to coronavirus, and so far I haven’t seen any indication that it will happen
• Australia would not only need to open up to foreigners without quarantine, but the country also could not have endless hoops if it expects widespread tourism.

There are a lot of interesting ideas here – extending the reach of the A330s to fly them to the United States, to operate a Darwin-London flight, to bring back A380s earlier, etc. But I just don’t see it going as planned.

At the end of the line

With Qantas’ latest international travel restart strategy, the airline could resume long-haul flights in December 2021. The airline would first fly to destinations with high vaccination rates, we could see A330s flying to the United States, we could see A380s back in service by July. 2022, and we could see flights between Darwin and London.

Unfortunately, unless the Australian government changes course (and the government’s handling of the pandemic has been popular among residents), this plan just seems very optimistic to me. Australia should stop going with a zero tolerance strategy against coronaviruses and should significantly ease travel restrictions if widespread tourism becomes a thing again.

What do you think of Qantas’ strategy to relaunch international flights?