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Israel’s struggle throughout the summer against the virulent delta version of COVID has strained minds and resources, and claimed an estimated 1,000 lives in the past six weeks alone. Like some other Western countries, one of Israel’s main obstacles in the fight against COVID is the refusal of citizens to be vaccinated.
The share of recalcitrant is estimated at 12 to 17% of eligible (over 12 years).
Unvaccinated Israelis come from diverse social communities and as such their reasons for abstaining vary. Polls show fear of side effects (or “fear of vaccine damaging health”) to be the main reason, while others have found that many unvaccinated people believe recovered patients have sufficient immunity – among the factors leading to lower rates among Arab and ultra-Orthodox communities. , who have been hit hard by the disease.
But it is the subset that has become anti-vaccine missionaries and their now-familiar arguments around the world that drive the social debate to polarization, rage or naked wickedness. Strangely enough, some of them may well be vaccinated themselves. Yet this group has developed a tangled web of arguments to oppose all existing and future evidence on the safety and efficacy of vaccines, and disseminate it everywhere.
Themes include skepticism about the seriousness of COVID individually and socially, conspiracy to remove side effects or ineffectiveness from vaccines, delegitimization of medical and public health leaders, corporate conflicts of interest.
This group places great importance on obscure social media sources, while rejecting published and peer-reviewed research studies, especially when reported in hopelessly discredited “mainstream media”.
A vaccine skeptic succinctly summed up the point to me: Politicians, drug companies, and the media have squandered public trust on lies over the years.
That’s a fair point in general – there is a story of suspicion, born out of experience about both. “Big Pharma” lied about opioids as a spectacular example; politicians have lies in their DNA. Some media can actually lie; more often the media can be wrong.
But I want this extremely vocal group to consider another important voice: their own people.
It is difficult to quantify the anti-vaxxer ideological group, but several indicators show that they represent a valuable number in society.
In mid-August, the Israel Democracy Institute’s Voice Index survey asked those who are not vaccinated for their reasons. As in the United States, the main response was fear of “damage to health” or side effects (29%).
The conspiratorial mindset that “vaccinations are only the result of economic / political interests” ranked last among the reasons – only eight percent of unvaccinated Israelis chose this answer. Likewise, an August university study identified a subset of unvaccinated people who said they did not intend to be vaccinated (about eight percent of the total population). Of these, only six percent had the ideological stance of opposing all vaccines.
Moreover, while only 12 percent are not currently invasive, up to 88 percent of eligible Israelis have voted with their guns. The number shows that vaccine support has largely captured Israel’s notoriously fractured political spectrum.
Israelis are also showing broad support for restrictions on the unvaccinated. In early August, Israel reintroduced the green pass system requiring proof of vaccination or a negative PCR test for those not vaccinated, for indoor establishments and large outdoor gatherings.
The anti-vaxxer vocal mob decried politics as segregation and discrimination, triggering a grotesque display of Holocaust imagery to imply that the rules will lead to scapegoating and destruction.
Their fellow citizens do not agree. The Voice Index survey in mid-August found that only 15% of Israelis said the restrictions on unvaccinated people were too severe. Almost twice as many (29%) said the restrictions were appropriate. And the largest group, 49%, said restrictions on unvaccinated people were not strict enough.
Does this mean that the majority is always right? Certainly not. I oppose majority democracy and majority tyranny as vigorously as Alexis de Tocqueville, albeit in a less illustrious manner.
But consider the likely reasons why such a large majority – at least 78% – support current or future restrictions on the unvaccinated. The Israelis have already gone through three severe lockdowns, and everyone has felt the pain; in their strictest moments, we were limited to walking only 100 meters from our homes, or 200-500 meters for the longer phases.
Millions of people have suffered the agony of material and economic damage. At its peak, unemployment reached almost 30%, affecting more than one million people.
The lower strata of society have been hit the hardest and the economic crisis has deepened inequalities in Israel, according to Karnit Flug, former governor of the Bank of Israel. There was a 13% increase in the number of Israelis seeking help from food banks before the High Holydays, an increase in food insecurity attributed to the current COVID crisis.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise: The hardest hit industries – tourism, services, entertainment – have ripped the financial carpet from the lowest incomes. The richest, especially those who work in high-tech, have done well. High tech has helped keep Israel’s macroeconomic losses manageable. But anyone concerned with the most economically vulnerable – let alone the most vulnerable mentally or emotionally – knows that foreclosure is the killer.
But due to Israel’s high vaccination rate, along with slight social restrictions, even the delta push has yet to lead to a fourth lockdown.
Daily case rates in Israel rebounded in July, alongside serious illnesses and hospitalizations. Hospital units are strained, health workers exhausted and possibly frustrated by the unvaccinated, who as of mid-September accounted for about two-thirds of severe cases, all new confirmed cases and half of all deaths due to COVID in August). But the system was not overwhelmed. Schools have reopened, there were few vacation restrictions and the economy is spinning around.
In response, anti-vocal vaccines argue that vaccination or confinement is a false choice, claiming that vaccines have no social impact and only protect the individual.
The scientific fallacy is obvious even to non-scientists: even though delta is transmitted at the same rate by vaxxed or non-vaxxed, and even though Pfizer protects against infection at a disappointing rate of 39 percent at the lowest estimate , instead of the top 90 percent astronomy of early estimates, even fewer people receive, and therefore spread, COVID to others.
And even one less infection means fewer severe cases, less burden on hospitals and the healthcare system, and less risk of containment.
Opposing vaccines means either denying science or denying our neighbors; probably less fortunate neighbors than the missionaries themselves. Proselytizing anti-vaccines make a lot of claims, but it’s essential to remember that they do. not represent the people. They don’t act in anyone’s best interests, possibly not even theirs.
Dahlia Scheindlin is a political scientist and public opinion expert, and policy researcher at the Century Foundation. Twitter: @dahliasc
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