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Senators John Kennedy and Bill Cassidy, the two Republicans from Louisiana, are considered likely “yes” votes after the experience of Hurricane Ida in their state. Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) declined to say whether she would vote to move the bill forward, instead reiterating her hopes to separate the debt ceiling from government funding. When asked if she was undecided on how she might vote, Murkowski replied, “I’m not telling anyone.”
But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Makes sure the quartet remains isolated. He again argued at a private caucus lunch on Tuesday that Republicans should not vote to raise the debt ceiling, going through previous debt ceiling increases and encouraging the caucus to tighten up. elbows and stay strong, according to two participants.
It is possible that one or two other senators will rebel against McConnell’s hard-line opposition and vote to move the bill forward after it is passed in the House. But GOP leaders seem confident they can keep the line and block this legislation with obstruction, refusing to allow it to come up with a final vote that Democrats could then pass on their own.
That’s what happened in 2014, when Republicans helped break an obstruction to raising the debt ceiling, but all voted against the bill. That is not happening this time around, according to GOP senators.
“They won’t get 10 Republican votes on this,” pledged Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), The No. 3 GOP leader, who helped break this deadlock seven years ago.
Republicans relied on Democratic votes during Donald Trump’s presidency to lift the debt ceiling, even after the Senate passed their tax cuts bill despite Democratic opposition. And counterintuitively, Republicans say they don’t want a default while saying they will vote against an increase in the debt ceiling.
The GOP claims times are different, highlighting the Democrats’ big spending plans and their ability to unilaterally pass a debt ceiling increase through budget reconciliation. However, Democratic aides say even that strategy would require Republican help on the budget committee.
And aid is declining, even among Republicans who backed Biden’s infrastructure bill last month. Although this bill increased the deficit, McConnell said it was derisory compared to Democrats’ hopes of spending up to $ 4 trillion on Biden’s program, part paid for with tax increases. on corporations and the rich.
Infrastructure supporting Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), John Hoeven (RN.D.), Shelley Moore Capito (RW.Va.) and Roy Blunt (R-Mo .) have all said they will vote to obstruct the debt ceiling and the spending program – and they seem pretty comfortable with that choice.
“I feel as comfortable as President Pelosi in 19, where she said she would not vote for the debt ceiling unless spending increased,” Blunt said, referring to a bipartite budget deal that also raised the debt ceiling. “Debt limit always involves some sort of negotiation over spending policy. “
Romney added, “Republicans won’t want to vote procedurally to do it because then we become complicit and that’s not something we want to do. Lindsey Graham (RS.C.), a member of the Senate Budget Committee, said he was unsure if he would even help Democrats get a new debt ceiling plan off his committee.
If Senate Republicans hold the line next week and as the potential October default date approaches, there would be only two options left: a strategic Democratic overthrow or a default. Additionally, Republicans’ debt-cap tactics add to the racket of complications for Democrats as they struggle to pass Biden’s jobs and family plan.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (DN.Y.) was adamant Tuesday that McConnell is the only one to blame for the nonsense. He declined to consider a tactical change that would raise the debt ceiling with only Democratic votes: “It should be bipartisan.”
“You are deviating from a bipartisan solution, it can cause huge problems for America now. And in the future,” Schumer said.
But some Democrats regret the decision to tie up Republicans. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) Said he had told his colleagues he would have liked to make the debt limit in reconciliation even though “Republicans are responsible for the debt we vote on.” He added that it “should be bipartisan” but that he is “a little skeptical of what is going on”.
Otherwise, Senate Democrats appear to be co-peaceful with this strategy. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Arizona), who is running for re-election on a key battlefield, said “we should come together in a bipartisan way to raise the debt ceiling.”
“I think we’ll get there,” said Senator Joe Manchin (DW.Va.). “We have to do something, we have to pay our debt. And I think all Republicans know the same thing.
There is recent precedent for using the budget reconciliation to raise the debt limit, but it hasn’t been used since the 1990s. And Republicans didn’t do it the last time they controlled the debt. House, Senate and White House in 2018, in part because the party is generally divided over whether to raise the debt limit even when they are in power.
If Democrats refuse to change course and remove the debt ceiling from their spending program, a government shutdown will also become a real possibility next week. Democrats could ditch the debt component and avoid a shutdown, but that would push the debt ceiling battle deeper into the fall and closer to a fiscal cliff.
Neither side shows the slightest sign of backing down, and they both predict that someone will give in when the possibility of a default becomes a reality. Democrats are betting that as the deadline draws near, Republicans will start to feel pressure from the business world and the necessary 10 will sign a debt suspension. Meanwhile, Republicans assume Democrats will eventually fend for themselves, not wanting to be blamed for a default while they control Washington.
Cassidy said he was officially undecided on how he would vote in the coming days. And Kennedy said he would “reluctantly but likely” support the legislation because it includes disaster relief to help his state. But he has no problem with the party’s overall strategy and has said that Schumer is “fabricating a crisis”.
McConnell “doesn’t often express his deep feelings on an issue in terms of how we should vote, but on this one he was very adamant,” Kennedy said. “He’s not going to change his mind.
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