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NEW YORK (AP) – President Joe Biden loses support from critical groups on his political base as some of his key campaign pledges falter, leading Democrats to fear voters who nominated him to power feel less excited to return to the polls in next year’s midterm elections.
Over the past week, the pressure to change national immigration laws and create a path to citizenship for immigrant youth brought into the country illegally as children face a serious setback on Capitol Hill. Biparty negotiations for a police overhaul collapse and striking images of abused Haitian refugees at the US-Mexico border undermined Biden’s promise of humane treatment for those seeking entry into the United States.
Taken together, the developments threaten to disillusion African Americans, Latinos, young people and independents, all of whom have played vital roles in building a coalition that has given Democrats control of Congress and the White House. Last year. It creates a sense of urgency to negotiate some type of deal between the progressive and moderate wings of the party to move forward with a $ 3.5 trillion package. that would fundamentally reshape the nation’s social programs.
Failure to do so, party strategists warn, could devastate Democrats in the 2022 vote and raise questions about Biden’s path to re-election if he decides to run for a second term.
“Quoting Benjamin Franklin, if they don’t stand together, they will see themselves apart,” said James Carville, a seasoned Democratic strategist. “They have to do something to have a chance.”
Despite such concerns, it is probably too early for Democrats to panic.
As Biden’s approval ratings took a hit, for example, they are significantly better than those of Donald Trump at the same time of his presidency. With mid-sessions over a year away, Biden and the party leaders have time to put things right.
Some of the challenges of the past week are more the result of the inertia of a tightly divided Congress rather than a failure of Biden’s leadership. Other issues, including concerns about the future of abortion rights and anger at Republicans’ efforts to curtail voting rights, may galvanize Democrats even if they are disappointed by Washington’s continuing standoff. .
“I said it would take me a year to deliver everything I watch here,” Biden told reporters on Friday when pressed by the slow progress.
“No. 2, take a look at what I inherited when I took office. When I took office, the situation and where we were: We had 4 million people vaccinated. We had none. plan. We had – I mean, I can get off the list, “Biden added.” So, you know, part of that was about the panoply of things that landed on my plate. I’m not complaining; it’s just a reality.
A recent survey from the Pew Research Center, according to internal polls from the Republican and Democratic sides, paints a grim picture for the president and his party. He saw a 14 percentage point drop since July in his support for voters aged 18 to 29, a 16 point drop among Latinos and an 18 point drop among African Americans. The drop of black voters from 85% to 67% was particularly troubling given they were Biden’s most trusted source of support in 2020.
“A year from now the political environment will be very different,” Biden pollster John Anzalone said.
He highlighted the popularity of key elements of Biden’s “Build Back Better” program debated in Congress.
“We’re going to have a good narrative through 2022, not only what the Biden administration and the Democrats have done for Americans, but also to contrast what the Republicans are doing,” Anzalone said, suggesting voters would blame the GOP for any Democrat. failures.
For now, however, pollsters and Democratic strategists privately attribute Biden’s precarious position to a number of factors.
Some see the administration’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan as a turning point for some disappointed Democrats and Independents. Things took a turn for the worse when Biden faced a backlash from the left for his administration’s aggressive treatment of Haitian immigrants gathering at the US-Mexico border. Some African Americans have expressed concerns about some of the most significant pandemic restrictions backed by Democrats in places such as New York City, which recently imposed a vaccine requirement for indoor meals. Some Black Lives Matter executives in the city have called such mandates racist.
Democratic frustration has started to seep into midterm elections like that of Illinois’ 7th Congressional District, where Kina Collins challenges Rep. Danny Davis in the Democratic primary.
Collins says people in his Chicago-area district want less talk and more action. Her party has not done enough, she said, to overtake the leadership that divides Trump.
“Has Trump left? Collins asked. “I don’t know if Trump’s remains are really gone. People are scared. “
Most Washington Democrats are betting their political fate on the legislative package being debated on Capitol Hill that would lower prescription drug prices; establish a universal kindergarten for children aged 3 and 4; upgrade health insurance to cover dental care, vision and hearing; and tackling climate change, among other liberal priorities.
Senate Democrats can use a special process to approve the measure by a simple majority, rather than the 60 votes needed to proceed with most bills.
But even if Democrats do succeed in adopting it – far from certain, given resistance from moderates such as Sense Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona – they are still under intense pressure to ensure immigration and racial justice. On both fronts, the chances of Democratic success are even bleaker.
Immigration advocates reeling from Senate parliamentarian ruling Democrats couldn’t add immigration provisions to their massive package, including a path to citizenship for millions immigrants. And leading Democrats have acknowledged that negotiations failed to result in a compromise police bill in response to last summer’s large protests against police violence.
Biden has vowed to continue fighting on both fronts, although the way forward is murky at best.
“Inaction comes at a cost,” warned Lorella Praeli, who led Latino outreach for Hillary Clinton’s latest presidential campaign and is now co-chair of Community Change Action.
His organization and others are pressuring the Biden administration and Congressional Democrats to challenge the parliamentarian’s decision or to disregard it altogether.
She predicted that the ability – or failure – of Democrats to implement what has been a party priority for more than a decade would resonate with voters in states such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada, among others which will host high-level elections. publication date.
“At the end of the day, no one will care about the parliamentarian’s decision,” Praeli said. “They’re just going to remember there was a Democrat in the White House and a Democratic majority in Congress.”
Sensing the opportunity, the Republican National Committee recently opened Hispanic community centers in Laredo, Texas, and Milwaukee. The GOP already has some momentum with Latino voters, who backed Trump’s party at higher rates last fall than Democrats anticipated. In June, Republicans won a mayoral race in McAllen, Texas, a border town whose residents are overwhelmingly Latin American.
“Joe Biden and the Democrats are solely responsible for their failures,” said RNC president Ronna McDaniel. “With rising prices, the biggest tax hike in decades, a crisis at our southern border and forced vaccination warrants, all of this is having a disproportionate impact on low-income communities and communities of color – this does not work.”
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