Seahawks waste DJ Reed’s potential by playing him out of position

Science wasn’t my best subject in school.

I’m mentioning this, in a sort of over-sharing, because I’m going to use the scientific term “hypothesis” in the second fourth “paragraph” of this article, then, a little later, I’m going to say something like: “This here data proves my hypothesis ”, and some of you (many of you?) will immediately think,“ This is not how hypothesis testing works ”(or a variation of it) and, even if I know (because I have an internet connection and Google hasn’t banned me yet), that’s not going to stop me from completely and shamelessly slaughtering the concept.

Kind of like Taylor Swift and privacy, George Lucas and cultural sensitivity, or the 2021 Seahawks defense and statistical relevance.

Breakup songs, Jar Jar Binks, and last-place charts aside, I have a hypothesis that I would like to share with my 12 year old friends.

But not yet.

First i need of want to set the scene – so to speak.

(Although the title of the article sort of did it for me.)

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Looking back on 2020

August 5, 2020: Seahawks call for exemptions from defensive back of DJ Reed

49ers General manager John Lynch told reporters in the Bay Area that Reed wouldn’t be able to resume his activities until at least November …

October 31, 2020: Seahawks activate DJ Reed …

The Seahawks made several roster changes ahead of Sunday’s game against the 49ers, including the addition of… cornerback DJ Reed… who the Seahawks claimed after San Francisco waived him with a designation. non-football related injury… (Reed) making his debut against the team that selected him in the fifth round of the 2018 Draft.

Nov 1, 2020: Seahawks bounce back with dominant win over 49ers

To note: In his first game as a Seahawk, DJ Reed had 2 breakouts, including an interception on the 49ers’ second possession. (The score of the box)

Of course you already knew this part …

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The San Francisco years

This is not a history lesson.

It’s more of a “that’s who he came out of college” (via video) coupled with a bit of “that’s how the 49ers squandered his talent.”

Video

Statistics and use of SF

Reed was selected by Santa Clara Adjacent in the 5th round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He started 2 games in his rookie year and appeared in a total of 31 games with the 49ers during the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

2018:

• 5 games at Free Safety; 1 to strong security; 5 at the corner of the slot
• Targeted 15 times out of 208 cover shots (including 73 in his first 2 matches)
• Allowed 14 receptions for 113 yards (8.1 average) and 2 touchdowns
• The passer rating when targeted was 137.6

2019:

• 1 match at LCB; 2 at RCB; 8 to the SCB; 1 at Free Safety
• Targeted 13 times out of 90 cover shots; allowed 8 receptions for 107 yards (13.4 on average)
• 1 INT and 2 PBU
• 113.3

Years 1 + 2 combined:

• 13 games in the slot machine; 3 games outside; 7 safe
• The QBs had a passer rating of 135.1 throwing reed’s direction

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Revision 2020

After hitting the ground with his performance against the Niners in Week 8 of the 2020 season, Reed wasted no time in endearing himself to the 12.

Reed started 8 of the 10 games he appeared in last season.

Seattle’s Week 15 game in Washington was Reed’s highlight. He was targeted 10 times out of 61 cover shots, but allowed only 4 receptions for a meager 15 yards (3.8 on average), with 2 breakouts, including one interception.

Dwayne Haskins’ passer rating for targeting Reed that day was 8.3.

Eight. Point. Three.

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Fast forward to 2021

As spring turned into summer, most of the 12 were excited to see what DJ Reed could do over the course of an entire season. He was one of the presumed starters before camp and sidelining most of the camp had no impact on that.

Unfortunately, none of the other corners the Seahawks had in their lineup claimed the LEFT cornerback spot while Reed was on the sidelines.

Naturally, the coaches decided to put Reed in the LCB to start the season, even if LCB is objectively that of Reed. worse position.

As we found out last Sunday.

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

On back-to-back Minnesota possessions to complete the first half.

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Rewind the tape …

Given the timing, some of you might think this article is an overreaction to what could be described as “a bad day at the office” by Mr. Reed last Sunday.

It’s not.

In fact, I’m reflecting on what I’m about to share since before the start of the season. Since August 31, in fact.

Why August 31?

Because this is the day that THIS happened (video link, mark 2:07):

Journalist: What do you think of the competition on the (right) side, with Tre and all? Do you expect to be the starter?

DJ Reed: I mean, today they moved me to the left corner, so Tre is on the right. So I mean, that’s what I was told today. So for me, you know, I just …

My hearing sort of cut off at that point as my mind and spirit screamed in unison: “What the fk still alive!?!?”

As I wrote in an article published on September 10:

(announcement from DJ Reed) led me to shut down my computer for a few days.

I still visited the site and posted comments from my phone but no computer = no FTR articles and … that was probably a good thing.

I followed this over-share with this:

Optimism is for suckers, but pessimism just sucks.

I choose optimism.

For the moment.

Funny, and perhaps quite stupidly, I remain optimistic. But I’m not stupid and I’m not blind and well …

I have statistics.

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The FTR hypothesis

DJ Reed has appeared in 48 NFL games, including the playoffs, over 3 seasons. PFF says he played the left cornerback in exactly 6 of them. Six games is a fairly small sample.

But that’s enough for a hypothesis.

DJ Reed sucks in from the left side and should be immediately moved to his natural position on the right side.

Yeah, I know …

As a hypothesis, it is very poorly formulated.

I will now draw your attention to the first sentence of this article here. You know, the one where I said ‘science wasn’t my best subject in school’.

Let me also draw your attention to the glorious 100-word, one-sentence “paragraph” that followed that initial statement. More specifically, let me draw your attention to these 6 words:

“This here data proves my hypothesis.

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FTR data

Here are the relevant numbers from Reed’s 6 LCB games in the NFL:

And here are the numbers for his 8 NFL games at RCB:

Raise your hand if you notice the 84.2 point difference in the passer rating that Reed authorizes depending on whether he is at RCB (45.4) or LCB (129.6).

Raise your other hand if you also noticed that he (a) didn’t allow any touchdowns when playing RCB and (b) didn’t get any interceptions when playing LCB.

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The counter-argument

Certainly, there is a flaw in my hypothesis. At least theoretically.

If the Seahawks move DJ Reed to RCB … who plays LCB?

Good question.

Let’s take a quick look at the other corners on the active list with the corners listed in order of experience (based on games played).

Flowers of Tre

Including the playoffs, Tre Flowers has played 49 games. Per PFF, he played RCB in all of them. During the flowers’ better season (2019), he awarded a passer rating of 93.8. Through 3 games this season, he sits at 139.6.

Sidney jones

Sidney Jones is the next man, right? Jones played the CB position in 26 NFL games: 11 at LCB (252 cover shots), 8 at RCB (164), and 7 in the slot (207). His authorized passer scores are 109.3 (LCB), 62.8 (RCB) and 87.1 (Slot).

Blessed Austin

#Blessed took defensive shots 18 career games; 17 of them at RCB; 1 at LCB (his rookie season). Over 606 shots at the RCB, Austin allowed a passer rating of 98.8 compared to a score of 102.7 on 51 shots at the LCB.

John reid

Reid played 145 defensive snaps in total in his rookie year (2020). 86 of them were cover shots – like a cleft wedge. He allowed 8 receptions on 10 targets for 103 yards with 1 touchdown. The opposing QBs had a combined passer rating of 142.9.

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Elimination process

If we talk about LCB, Tre Flowers and John Reid are eliminated.

Flowers because it is high time to eliminate him from consideration as a starter in this team. I mean, the Seattle coaches never really rolled the dice with him on the left side (at least not according to PFF)… why would they start now?

John Reid is eliminated because it was used exclusively as a slot machine corner by the Houston Texans and with no conflicting information we trust the history and past use.

__________

There remains Blessuan Austin and former Husky, Sidney Jones.

#Blessed allowed for a lower passer rating (98.8 vs. 109.3), but Jones has 5x the coverage snaps at LCB (252 vs. 51) and 11x the number of games played (11 vs. 1).

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Decision time

Personally, I’m leaning towards Jones, but I know that at least part of the reason is that I’m a Husky myself and tend to favor other Dawgs.

Corn …

Despite being drafted a year after Jones, #Blessed has more defensive snaps (1.069 vs. 946) and more cover snaps (657 vs. 643). And the difference between the passer rating he allowed at LCB and RCB is only 3.9 points while Jones’s difference is 46.5 points.

I’d be a little more nervous, but I could (probably) be convinced to #Blessed.

On match day, I think it’s a question of which one is healthy and / or which “wins” the weekly battle (s) in training.

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Conclusion (and a survey)

Have I proven my hypothesis? It’s up to you to decide. But raise your hand if you want to see DJ Reed lining up at LCB and Tre Flowers lining up at RCB for the next few weeks?

(FTR looks around the room and sees no hands in the air)

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Let’s finish with a survey.

Assuming Flowers isn’t part of the equation, what combination of outside corners would you rather see take the land for Seattle in Santa Clara on Sunday (and beyond)?