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The October box office has often been circled on the calendar as the start of the next phase of the domestic box office recovery. With the month officially starting this weekend, the time has come to Venom: let there be carnage, The Addams Family 2, and The Many Saints of Newark to begin making that important impression on moviegoers and the industry as a whole as 2021 enters its final quarter.
Sony Venom the sequel is the obvious favorite that commands the lion’s share of attention this weekend. Following several delays during the pandemic, few films have moved on the schedule as many times as the planned follow-up to one of the fall breakouts of 2018.
As indicated in our recent analysis, Venom scored a record-breaking $ 32.5 million opening weekend in October and smashed all expectations in one of the strongest fall box office slates in history. The Tom Hardy franchise is back with a younger core demographic to lead it, a crucial audience that represented a high share of returning customers to theaters during the pandemic rebound.
Comparisons are still limited, but Let there be carnage had a strong trend in the last few days before release. Combined social media impressions and pre-sale gauges have Sony’s sequel well ahead of August pace The suicide squad (which opened at a disappointing $ 26.2 million), while not far behind that of Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten rings. The latter, of course, was a market stronghold after the summer after a record three-day $ 75.4 million opening for Labor Day and subsequent strong hunting weekends.
Carnage is also comparable to this year F9 in some ways. This latest franchise is known to slow down public interest and pre-sales activity compared to many comic book franchises. However, the first Venom was an outlier in that regard thanks to the diverse appeal of an audience with slightly different makeup than the Marvel Cinematic Universe movies. (Remember: Venom is part of Sony’s Marvel franchise and, at this point anyway, has no substantial connection to the Disney & Marvel Studios franchise.)
That late and relaxed audience participation again plays a factor with Carnage, or whether it turns out to behave more like a typical comic book sequel, is one of the few open questions. Critics had also been an issue with an embargo in place until two days before opening, but the sequel stands at 74% of 53 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes as of early Thursday afternoon. Among the many strengths of this film, the appeal to young male audiences is on fire – a crowd with which the first film dominated via a 60% gender split, coupled with an overall demographic breakdown of 71% under. 25 years old.
The first one Venom was more of a crowd pleaser than a critics’ darling, but it also led the box office with much less competition on the following weekends than Carnage will face. The Compromise this time, however, is the long-awaited first appearance of Carnage, played by Woody Harrelson, a hugely popular character within the comic book fandom.
In terms of tracking compared to the predecessor itself, Carnage has not been at the same level, but it seems to retain much of the target audience interest that stimulated Venom. Last-minute presales spurts in the middle of this week also heighten expectations, but it’s important to remember that we are still in the midst of an evolving recovery market.
It is noteworthy that the first film had a bloated Sunday due to the Indigenous Peoples Day landing on Monday, which means an extended weekend for teens in elementary school. That won’t be the case this time around as the vacation will land a week later on October 11.
With all of that in mind, however, it’s been almost a full month since audiences had a very enticing brand new tent movie to lure them into theaters. This should play out CarnageMajor favor this weekend despite having a long way to go, including direct competition from movies like No time to die (October 8), Halloween kills (October 15), and Dune (October 22).
Sony is distributing the suite to 4,225 national theaters, including all IMAX and Premium Large Format screens. Previews begin Thursday at 4 p.m., an hour earlier than the first film’s start time three years ago that same weekend. It will also be exclusive to movie theaters, marking another advantage for box office performance.
For a welcome change of pace, this weekend will see two more nationwide releases as counter-programmers for the main event of the comic book sequel. This is arguably the most user-friendly strain the industry has seen so far among a collection of new releases during the pandemic and is likely to rival or surpass the dual schedule of A Quiet Place, Part II and Cruel during Memorial Day weekend.
First, United Artists Releasing sends The Addams Family 2 to theaters in a day and date strategy that also sees the streaming animated sequel as a paid home PVOD option. The latter decision was only made in recent weeks, as it has become clear that parents and adult women remain the most cautious about returning to the movies, largely because children under the age of 12 are not yet eligible for vaccines. It is obviously from Adam base crowd, so any comparison to the previous film’s $ 30.3 million opening weekend two years ago isn’t particularly helpful or valid here.
However, The Addams Family 2 is relatively well oriented compared to recent animated versions. For parents and kids who choose to safely return to the movies, the sequel presents one of the very few family options on the market lately. Brand awareness and lack of competition helped Paramount Paw Patrol: The Movie surpassed expectations at the end of the summer with a debut of $ 13.2 million (although Regal did not screen the film in its theaters) after The Boss Baby: family business and Peter Rabbit 2: The Fugue achieved similar box office results earlier this summer.
These are the most appropriate points of comparison for the Addam followed, but pent-up demand and an increased level of public comfort as these outings could arguably help them meet higher expectations – especially with the Halloween season in full swing in early October.
Warner Bros. is also back this weekend with their prequel to The Sopranos series, The many saints of Newark.
However, as a new day-to-day SVOD release, expectations have dropped significantly from what they once were. After the likes of Downton abbey and Black Mass proved a fall box office success while wooing a similar adult viewer base, recent performances by Warner Bros. of crying macho, Reminiscence, and Those who want my death showed that the older target audience chose to watch these movies for free at home on HBO Max.
Newark could surpass these films simply by nature by being part of a well-known and respected IP, but otherwise its impact should increasingly be diminished given that it is based on a series that fans have already spent years to watch on their television screens.
Elsewhere this weekend, Lionsgate and Kingdom Story Company will be released Jesus’ music at 249 locations, a film that has shown strong signs of pre-sale in recent days, while NEON will open Titanium in 562 cinemas. Both, especially the former, are top ten contenders this weekend.
Overall, the upcoming setting is expected to be one of the busiest in the pandemic era to date. Only three weekends since March 2020 have topped $ 90 million combined at the box office, with those being the Labor Day weekend for Shang-Chithe release of ($ 108.3 million), Black WidowJuly’s first image of ($ 117.5 million) and F9‘s ($ 97.1 million) from the weekend of June.
Much depends on Venom: let there be carnageability to meet or exceed expectations, this weekend is poised to rank somewhere among those three benchmarks of the pandemic era.
Forecast ranges
The Addams Family 2
Weekend opening range: $ 13 to $ 18 million
Total domestic range: 40 to 60 million dollars
The Many Saints of Newark
Weekend opening range: $ 7 to $ 12 million
Total domestic range: $ 15 to $ 35 million
Venom: let there be carnage
Weekend opening range: $ 60 to $ 80 million
Total domestic range: $ 140 million to $ 170 million
Weekend forecast
The top ten box office projects of this weekend will be increase between 180 and 220 percent of the top 10 total of $ 35.8 million last weekend.
| Movie | Distributer | 3-day weekend forecast | Indoor total projected until Sunday October 3 | Number of locations | % change since last weekend |
| Venom: let there be carnage | Sony Pictures / Colombia | $ 71,000,000 | $ 71,000,000 | 4,225 | NEW |
| The Addams Family 2 | United Artists Released | 16 $ 100,000 | 16 $ 100,000 | 4,207 | NEW |
| The Many Saints of Newark | Photos of Warner Bros. | $ 9,000,000 | $ 9,000,000 | ~ 3,300 | NEW |
| Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten rings | Disney / Marvel Studios | $ 6,200,000 | 206 $ 100,000 | 3 455 | -52% |
| Dear Evan Hansen | Universal Images | $ 2,800,000 | $ 12,200,000 | 3 364 | -62% |
| free guy | 20th century workshops | $ 2,300,000 | $ 117,600,000 | 2,545 | -44% |
| fellow | Universal Images | $ 1,500,000 | $ 59,200,000 | 1,745 | -41% |
| Jungle cruise | Walt disney studios | $ 900,000 | $ 116,300,000 | 1375 | -48% |
All forecasts subject to revision before first confirmation of Thursday previews or Friday estimates from studios or alternative sources.
The number of theaters is updated as confirmed by the studios.
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