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You’re here (TSLA) will release its third quarter shipments on Friday or early next week, as chip shortages likely limited production and shipments. Tesla stock is in the buy range.
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“At this point, we believe that the chip shortage has severely limited supply and deliveries during the months of July and August (estimating around 80,000 to 90,000 deliveries), but is on a massive trajectory in September. based on our analysis which is expected to approach 145,000-150,000 with China a major swing factor, ”Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said in a September 28 note.
While logistics in Europe remain complex as most Model 3 and Y vehicles originate from Giga in China, Ives said Tesla could approach 230,000 deliveries in the quarter. FactSet analysts’ estimates range from 218,000 to 246,000, with a consensus of 232,000.
Tesla first delivered Model Y to Europe in the third quarter, the last major market for its lineup. Its Shanghai plant exported most of its July-August production of Models 3 and Y, mainly to Europe.
Tesla reports quarterly sales within the first three business days of the following quarter. They could come on Friday, on weekends, or even until Tuesday and still hit that threshold.
“The pace of electric vehicle shipments in the United States and China has been robust over the past 4-6 weeks with a breathtaking growth trajectory heading into Q4 and 2022,” Ives wrote.
He believes the chip shortage will take about 40,000 units from Tesla’s annual shipment count, which is still expected to approach around 890,000 to 900,000 in a bullish scenario.
The electric vehicle maker delivered 201,250 vehicles in the second quarter, up from a previous record of 184,800 in the first quarter and 90,900 a year ago. This basically matched FactSet’s estimates, which ranged from 193,000 to 231,000.
Tesla produced 206,421 vehicles, including 204,081 Model 3 and Y electric vehicles, and 2,340 Model S and X vehicles.
In July, Tesla began long-delayed deliveries of the Model S Plaid, the revamped version of the luxury sedan, but these were not expected to increase quickly.
Tesla shares
Shares slipped 0.8 %% to 775.45 in the stock market today. Tesla stock is in the buy range at 802.78 from a buy point of 764.55 from a cup base with handle.
Its relative strength line is on the rise, according to MarketSmith. Tesla’s RS rating is 85 out of 99, while its EPS rating is 72. With a composite rating of 97, Tesla ranks # 2 in IBD’s automaker group. Tesla is a ranking stock.
Among the US-based automakers with a growing list of electric vehicles, General Motors (GM) fell 0.5% and Ford (F) fell 1%.
GM and Ford, like most automakers, have cut overall auto production due to chip shortages. US auto sales reports for September are due on Friday.
Recent IPO Lucid engines (LCID) lost 3.4%. LCID inventory has increased in recent weeks in anticipation of deliveries. Late Tuesday, the US-based EV startup began production of its 520-mile range Lucid Air, with deliveries starting in late October.
Among the rivals based in China, Nio (NIO) gained 1.4%, Xpeng (XPEV) climbed 2.9% and Li Auto (LI) rose 2.2%.
Nio (and possibly Xpeng and Li Auto) will likely report September and Q3 deliveries on Friday. Chip issues weigh heavily on the production of EV startups.
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Tesla FSD beta, events
Tesla will hold its annual meeting of shareholders on October 7 at its Austin, Texas plant. On October 9, she will be hosting an event at her factory outside Berlin. These events could hint when Tesla will start producing cars from these sites, dramatically increasing capacity.
Meanwhile, Tesla plans to start opening the beta of FSD to more fully self-driving owners and subscribers from October 8.
Follow Adelia Cellini Linecker on Twitter @IBD_Adelia.
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