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TTwo defining moments come to mind as Democrats move dangerously close to what could indeed be the coup de grace Joe Biden’s Presidency: Passage of either of the much-vaunted “infrastructure” bills failed, as House progressives called Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s bluff.
The first moment was when Biden thought he might be the next FDR or LBJ. The second moment was when he announced on stage that he would only sign the bipartisan infrastructure bill if a package of more progressive social reforms (“human infrastructure”) were adopted by a reconciliation vote in same time. The two moments conspired to lead Democrats on the verge of exploding their president’s legislative agenda.
Let’s start with the FDR / LBJ moment made possible by Donald Trump’s sabotage of two US Senate seats in Georgia. This dismissed the more modest (and largely popular) mandate of a “return to normalcy” and created the tempting, albeit elusive, possibility that Biden could be a truly transformational president. The perceived shift from a transitional figure to a transformational president has given progressives the false hope that by Biden the presidency could be a vehicle to make their wildest dreams come true.
Of course, Biden and the so-called “adults” of the Democratic Party have allowed progressives to wallow in this delusional state. This brings us to the second moment: Biden’s (presumably coerced) decision to tie the bipartisan infrastructure bill to a larger and more progressive “human infrastructure” reconciliation bill.
“If this [the bipartisan bill] is the only one that comes to mind, “Biden bluntly told a stunned audience that had just struck a bipartisan compromise deal,” I’m not signing it. It’s in tandem. Republicans who had just crossed the aisle felt rightly wronged. Biden then sought to clean up and clarify his statement, but he did so in a way that really didn’t clarify anything.
Instead of letting Georgia’s bizarre election results and the wishes of progressives define his presidency, Biden would have benefited from a hands-on approach to shaping his platform and managing expectations. It would have required setting realistic goals which, yes, would have disappointed the progressives of the day.
Why didn’t he do that? The fact that Biden won the 2020 Democratic primary by surviving – not taming – the left likely led him to mistakenly conclude that the same model was transferable to government. This was not the case. Surviving a primary campaign using strategic ambiguity is quite different from surviving a four-year presidential term that begins with a razor thin majority.
In many ways, Biden’s reluctance to confront the left in his party reflects what Republicans have gone through with the Tea Party, the Freedom Caucus, and, finally, with MAGA. Just as the GOP establishment believed they could appease and co-opt the right without confronting or conquering them, the leaders of the Democratic establishment believed that ignoring the problem would make it go away.
This brings us to our current situation. Moderate and Progressive Democrats are engaged in a chicken game right now. Democratic leaders don’t have the kind of carrots or sticks that could force or coax both sides back into line. If they can’t be persuaded that saving Biden’s presidency outweighs the long-term strategic gains of playing hardball, then the unthinkable could happen: Democrats could end up losing both the bill. bipartite and reconciliation, that is, the Biden agenda would go over the cliff.
In a chicken game, the hope is that someone deviates. But what if that doesn’t happen? In a statement Thursday night, Biden said “a lot of progress has been made this week and we are closer than ever to a deal.” We’ll see, but this clearly means that we failed to come to an agreement within the time frame set by the president for the bill and her party, with the president’s blessing.
Biden seems to have assumed that he could come to a compromise between the center and the left of his party, not realizing that some things in life are mutually exclusive. F. Scott Fitzgerald would have, in vain, warned his friend Ernest Hemingway that “a man, torn between two women, will end up losing them both”. Or, as Ricky Nelson sang, “You can’t please everyone, so you have to treat yourself. Biden might want to hum. To lead is to make choices, and to make choices is to exclude certain options. It comes at a cost, including the likelihood of disappointing others. Biden has so far refused to do so.
Instead, Biden appears to be a spectator more concerned with border agents allegedly flogging migrants than shaping Democrats to support his legislation. Axios reports that Biden will not beg Democrats to save his agenda. Politico’s Sam Stein reports progressives do not feel pressured by the White House to back down.
With all due respect I suggest he start begging and lobby. He might also consider praying.
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