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Among the interesting facets of Alabama’s next game is how often Ole Miss tackles it in fourth place.
In three games, Lane Kiffin and Co. chose not to kick in 14 fourth downs. Only Georgia Southern has done more, but in four games and Ole Miss’s 85.7 success rate (12 for 14) also ranks near the top of the national standings.
This led to an interesting question on Nick Saban’s Thursday night radio show about Saban’s thought process on fourth drop decisions and the use of analytics.
“Everyone’s doing analyzes now,” Saban said. “Everybody loves stats and you throw it all in the computer and how many people get there in fourth and how often do you do it?” What percentage of the time do you spend there? Is that percentage worth the 40 to 50 yards of field position you gain by jabbing? Now I would say the thing that changed my mind a bit is when you played a really, really good defense and the matches were won 14-10 which rarely happens because the rules of the game in college football promotes offense and that is why you see all of these points.
He noted that the Alabama defense in 2011 led the nation in scoring the defense by allowing just 8.2 points en route to a national title. Last year’s title team, noted Saban, led the SEC in allowing 19.4 points per game.
“And I didn’t think we had a good defense or anything like that, but it shows how difficult it is to play in defense,” Saban said. “So when you say we’re going to kick the ball and gain 40 yards of position on the pitch, the way people move the ball now and the advantages you have on offense with some of the rules, it’s not so important to play football in the field position. As it was. “
Ole Miss was 4-for-4 converting the fourth downs in the 63-48 shootout victory in Alabama last year at Oxford. All four arrived on training sessions that ended with touchdowns.
This season, Alabama are 4-5 to convert from fourth down.
So what does Saban think of the new era of analytics-based decision making?
“Well, I’m not an analysis guy,” Saban said. I know coaches who are and I know coaches that we had on staff in the past who are quite a few. And I like our coaches to look at the analyzes and then come and present them to me and I can say, “That doesn’t make sense”. Or I can say ‘This is an interesting idea.’
“But philosophically, a guy who’s never played football and sits at a computer and puts a bunch of stuff into a computer. And you also need to get a feel for your team. One of the questions I ask myself is how good are we in these situations? Do we have any good games to call in these situations? Are we happy to have the opportunity to convert in these situations? So all of those things are factors in the game in relation to how the other team plays and what they do.
Top-ranked Alabama and No.12 Miss Ole kick off at 2:30 p.m. CT on Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on twitter @ByCasagrande Or on Facebook.
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