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Norway’s plug-in electric vehicle market share in September broke new ground, reaching 91.5%, with all-electric alone taking 77.5%. Diesels lost more than half of their share year over year, falling to just 2.3%, with gasoline hybrids and spark plugless hybrids not faring much better. The overall volume of the automotive market was 17,992 units, slightly above seasonal norms. The Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model 3 took the top two places.
September’s combined plug-in result of 91.5% was mostly complete electric batteries (BEVs) with a new record share of 77.5%, with plug-in hybrids taking a modest 13.9%. Last year September saw 61.5% BEV and 20.1% PHEV.
Plug-in hybrid vehicles had an average share of 25.4% in the first half of this year, but have since fallen, showing that even this bridging technology is now on the way out in Norway.
The share of diesel fell to a record low of 2.3%, less than half of that of a year ago (5.0%). Gasoline took just over 3% and even old-school HEVs only took 3.2%. The end of the game for these older technologies will be interesting to watch. Will they quickly go away altogether, or – like Zeno’s halving paradox – just keep gradually decreasing until they become insignificant?
Best Selling Models
Tesla’s usual push at the end of the quarter resulted in its two midsize models topping the September sales chart:
What’s more interesting is that beyond the end-of-quarter push – looking at the past three months – Tesla still seems to be way ahead of other brands:
However, if we add all VW groups BEV’s sales over the past 3 months (including those outside the top 20 above), their tally (8645) is still slightly higher than Tesla’s (7867). Their positions could be reversed in the last quarter as the Model Y continues to climb, and VW could be held back in the short term by chip shortages.
When the Tesla Berlin plant ramps up in the coming year, VW will have a real battle to do. Will they be ready with high volumes of the more affordable variants of their MEB platform?
Thanks in large part to the popularity of the Hyundai Ioniq 5 (ranking No.5), the performance of the Hyundai Group over 3 months is also decent (3,680 units), although just under half that of the VW Group or from Tesla. The Hyundai Group could climb further when the Kia EV6 arrives in the coming months, and gain further momentum if and when the “third brother” Genesis GV60 arrives in Europe in 2022.
Stellantis occupies 4th place in the group standings with 2890 units over the last 3 months, with the Mustang Mach-E giving Ford 5th place (2380 units). This is a great result for Ford’s first BEV effort, but when will they increase production volumes to allow the Mach-E to realize its true potential?
Renault-Nissan (1,430 units) has undoubtedly lost its lead and should soon be overtaken by BMW (1,207 units), thanks to the imminent arrival of the probable BMW i4 (from less than € 50,000) and the BMW iX.
Even Mercedes (1334 units, before the ramp-up of the EQS) could overtake Renault-Nissan in the short term. The Nissan Ariya (much behind schedule) and the Renault Mégane will not come soon enough.
Outlook
With BEVs now accounting for nearly 80% of new sales, their momentum seems unstoppable.
The Norwegian Association of Electric Vehicles (Norwegian Electric Car Association) reports that private buyers have already almost completely abandoned ICE, with 91.3% having already chosen a BEV. However, a side effect of the current incentive system (mainly through VAT exempt BEVs) may in fact make the last sales of ICEs difficult to stamp out unless policy changes can be made.
Much of the remaining sales of PHEV, HEV and ICE goes commercial leasing companies (both for company car customers and for certain individuals). Since company car users can claim VAT refunds anyway, the advantage of the VAT exemption enjoyed by private buyers over BEVs does not have much influence on this area of the leasing sector.
Thus, a new incentive design that applies to lease agreements will likely be necessary to eliminate the remaining non-BEV sales. We will keep an eye on this situation and bring you updates as they arise.
Despite this, it is likely that the rest of this year will continue to see plugins gaining shares of around 90% or more, with in December around 95%.
What do you think of the purpose of clean transport in Norway? Please share your ideas in the comments below.
Note: Unfortunately, there is no update data yet on the composition of the vehicle fleet in Norway at the end of the third quarter. I will bring news on this as soon as it becomes available.
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