MLB playoff scenarios: What’s at stake on Sunday as Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mariners battle for a wild card

The last day of the 2021 MLB regular season has arrived. Well, maybe. It is possible – very possible, in fact – that a tie-breaking game or two (or three!) Will be required on Monday, and tie-breaking games are considered regular season games. There is a good chance that the regular season will extend until Monday.

Eight of the 10 playoff spots are counted. The only two spots open are the two American League wild-card spots, although the NL West race is also undecided. There are six teams in total involved in these races and unfortunately none are playing one-on-one this weekend. Everyone needs to watch the scoreboard, and three of those six clubs need help from other teams.

Here is a look at everything going on Sunday and how the different races can be decided.

Current playoff support

Relevant Sunday matches

Remember, all games start at 3 p.m. ET on Sundays. A few years ago, the MLB moved all of the last day’s games to the same start time to maximize the drama. It truly is one of the best things MLB has done in recent years.

Newfoundland and Labrador West

Let’s get rid of the easy stuff first. The Giants (106-55) are one game ahead of the Dodgers (105-56) and will win the NL West title with a win over the Padres or a loss for the Dodgers against the Brewers. Either works. If the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, the two clubs will play a Game 163 tie-break in San Francisco on Monday. The winner takes the NL West title and the loser welcomes the Cardinals to the Wild Card Game. Understood? Good. To move on.

AL joker

This is where the action is. The Blue Jays, Mariners, Red Sox and Yankees are alive in the American League wild card race, and four teams still alive mean there are 16 possible outcomes on Sunday, including ties at three and four teams. It could be chaos. Here are all those results:

Sixteen possible outcomes, seven resulting in the Yankees vs. Red Sox in the Wild Card Game, and nine resulting in some sort of tie-breaking scenario. Here’s how all the tie-offs work. It should be noted that three-team ties are a bit more chaotic than the big four-team tie. With a four-team tie, the clubs are paired up and play two tie-breaking matches, and the winners are the wild card teams. With a three-team tie, there is a small mini-tournament in which the first tiebreaker game determines who plays in the second tiebreaker.

Note that the best the Blue Jays and Mariners can do on Sunday is force a Game 163 tiebreaker on Monday. They can’t get a wild card spot on the last day of the season. If the AL wild-card race is decided on Sunday, it means Yankees vs Red Sox in the Wild Card Game. Any other scenario involves playing until Monday.

1st choice in 2022

The race to the bottom is also at stake on Sunday. For a while it looked like the Diamondbacks had the No.1 pick in the 2022 draft, then it looked like the Orioles were going to run away with it, and now it’s the last day. The D-Backs (51-110) have a one-game “lead” over the O’s (52-109) and can land the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft with a loss to the Rockies or a victory of the Orioles against the Blues Jays on Sunday.

If the Orioles lose and the D-Backs win, they would end up with identical records, and Baltimore would get the No.1 pick next year because they had the worst record in 2019 (54-108 to 85-77). The first tiebreaker is 2020 records, but both clubs went 25-35 last year, so we go back to 2019, and the Os hold that tiebreaker. Outfielder Elijah Green, a possible generational talent, is the first seed to be the No.1 pick in next year’s draft.