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China will be able to mount a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025, the island’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said, describing the current tensions as the worst in 40 years.
Speaking to the China Times on Wednesday, Chiu said China is capable now, but would be fully ready to launch an invasion in three years.
“By 2025, China will reduce cost and attrition to a minimum. He has the ability now, but he won’t start a war easily, because he will have to take a lot of other things into consideration, ”he said.
Beijing sent around 150 fighter jets to Taiwan’s air defense zone over four days from Friday, the same day China marked a key patriotic holiday, in a record escalation of its gray zone military activity directed towards the island.
Beijing claims Taiwan as a province of China and has pledged to take it back, by force if necessary, and accuses its democratically elected government of being separatist. The government of Taiwan claims that it is already a sovereign nation without the need to declare its independence. On Tuesday, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen wrote that Taiwan would not be “adventurers” but would “do whatever it takes” to defend itself.
As there is growing speculation that China is moving towards Taiwan, the timing and nature of such action is hotly debated among analysts and government figures.
Chiu’s comments came as the Taiwanese legislature considered a special defense budget bill of T $ 240 billion ($ 8.6 billion). About two-thirds would be spent on anti-ship weapons such as land missile systems, including a T $ 148.9 billion plan to mass produce local missiles and “high performance” ships.
He told a parliamentary committee that the situation was “the most serious” in more than 40 years since he joined the army, and that there was a risk of “misfires” across the Straits of Taiwan sensitive.
“For me as a soldier, the emergency is right in front of me,” he said.
In a preamble to the proposal, the Defense Ministry noted the increase in China’s military spending, especially on advanced fighters and amphibious warships, and the intensification of the military’s activities. Chinese Air Force and Navy near Taiwan.
“Military threats and provocations are even more numerous than before,” he said, adding that any crisis was likely to intensify rapidly.
Taiwan is largely overtaken by the Chinese military and has therefore focused on developing an asymmetric or “porcupine” defense system to deter or repel a ground invasion. He also lobbied for intelligence and logistical support from other countries, including Australia, Japan and the United States – which also sell arms to Taiwan.
Earlier Wednesday, US President Joe Biden said he had spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that they had agreed to abide by the Taiwan agreement.
“I spoke with Xi from Taiwan. We agree… we will respect the Taiwan agreement, ”he said. “We’ve made it clear that I don’t think he should do anything other than stick to the deal.”
It was not clear which deal Biden was referring to. Washington has a long-standing “one-China policy” under which it officially recognizes Beijing rather than Taipei, based on the Three Joint Communiqués, the Six Assurances, and the Taiwan Relations Act., which clearly shows that the decision of the United States to establish diplomatic relations with Beijing instead of Taiwan rests on the hope that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means.
Jessica Drun, a non-resident fellow with think tank Project 2049, said it was not clear whether Biden was “commenting on long-standing US policy toward Taiwan or an earlier separate conversation with Xi.”
Drun said that if it was the “one-China policy”, she wouldn’t call it an agreement.
“From what I understand, it is standard procedure in interactions with Chinese counterparts for each party to convey their respective views. For Washington, it is the affirmation of its “One China” policy – which is its own policy, formulated independently, and which is certainly not the same as Beijing’s “One China” principle.
Beijing frequently claims that other governments are bound by its own “one China principle,” which declares Taiwan to be a province of China.
Various other nations have their own “one China” policies, which define the level of recognition their governments give to Beijing’s policies. The United States and Australia, for example, recognize but do not recognize Beijing’s claim on Taiwan. Two days ago, Beijing called US policy something it had unilaterally “concocted”.
In his comments on Taiwan, Biden also appeared to refer to a 90-minute call he had with Xi on September 9, their first talks in seven months, in which they discussed the need to ensure that competition between the two largest economies in the world do slip into conflict.
Biden sends White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan for talks with Chinese senior foreign policy adviser Yang Jiechi to Switzerland, as the two countries disagree on various issues, including Taiwan and trade .
Additional reports from Chi Hui Lin, Reuters and AP
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