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Seventeen could be the defining number of the season for the St. Louis Cardinals. As in the number of consecutive games they won in a record-breaking streak in September.
But there is another number that tells an even more dramatic story of their year: 1.3.
According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals’ playoff odds hit a 1.3% low on August 8. Even on September 9, the day before their winning streak began, those odds were only 5%.
But seeing their odds of playing in October drop so low could be part of the reason why St. Louis is bracing for an unlikely NL Wild Card Game clash on Wednesday night in Los Angeles with defending champion Dodgers rather than making offseason plans. right now.
“It was weird because we would be a game or two behind and we would win and the Reds would lose and our chances in the playoffs would go down,” said longtime Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright. “No one could figure that out, so it pushed us a bit, so thank you to all the folks at FanGraphs who didn’t give us any respect so we could go out with a bullet on our shoulders.”
How they did
There is a clear link between St. Louis’ injuries and a drop in the standings.
“It’s not a mystery to me,” Cardinals coach Mike Shildt said recently. “We played really well the first two months. We had a pretty good core of starting pitchers. Then we lost four of our starters in no time.
“Stabilizing the rotation was key.”
On May 31, the final day, ace Jack Flaherty would take the mound for about three and a half months with an oblique injury, the Cardinals had 30-24 and just two games out of an NL wild card spot.
From that day until the trade deadline of July 30, St. Louis went 22-27, losing seven games in the race for second place in the wild card with two teams to defeat.
Injuries to Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Kwang Hyun Kim and Carlos Martinez stopped the Cardinals in their tracks.
The Cardinals managed to keep striking distance while waiting to regain health, ultimately allowing them to profit from injuries and poor play that derailed the season for a San Diego Padres team that seemed destined for the NL Wild Card Game for much of the season. year.
“We were expecting that day for offense, defense and pitcher to come together,” reliever Andrew Miller said last month. “He arrived.”
It came in the form of a historic 17-game winning streak in September, tied for fourth in the Modern Era National League (since 1900).
The No.17 win, the last in the streak, came rightly on the day they clinched a playoff berth, the 31st time the organization has reached the playoffs.
But there was one key decision the Cardinals had to make long before their season could be reversed in September.
It turned out to be easy.
The deadline for exchanges
For most teams on the playoff bubble, it’s an annual internal debate. Should they add to the July trade deadline and go for it, or should they subtract some expiring contracts and re-equip for the future?
The Cardinals aren’t most teams.
“You still want September to count,” Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told ESPN.com. “When you look at the last 40 years with this organization, we were able to have it.”
Here’s the gist: Saint-Louis rarely, if ever, subtracted from its list at these times. But Mozeliak knew the odds as well as anyone, so he took a reasoned approach on July 30 rather than pushing his chips all-in.
Instead, the Cardinals filled their holes with veterans who weren’t exactly lighting up the stats sheet. Jon Lester is from the Washington Nationals and JA Happ from the Minnesota Twins. They brought their 5.02 and 6.77 ERAs with them.
Meanwhile, smaller reliever box additions from TJ McFarland and Luis Garcia have stabilized a previously very fragile squad.
“When we made these deals, we knew they weren’t going to be popular with the public, so I didn’t want to go out in front of the media and get up and wave,” Mozeliak said with a smile. “It would have been spurious. But what is genuine is that we made these agreements for a purpose. The purpose was to help our rotation because we sometimes suffered from bleeding.”
The plan worked. Lester and Happ have been better with the Cardinals than their former teams as the bullpen has gone from a whopping 13.5% walk rate before July 30 to a 7.9% walk rate since.
“It’s really just the contagious thing to throw and hit well and the next guy wants to too,” Lester explained. “The second wild card helps. It gives you that chance to come in. Without that second wild card, we’re done.”
And without the deadline decisions – as minor as they seemed at the time – the Cardinals never get back into the running.
“Are we past the trade deadline? No. But did we feel it would help us? Yes,” Mozeliak said.
And when it all came together, the Cardinals not only made the playoffs, but they compiled one of the best Septembers in league history.
“That’s why I came here,” said third baseman Nolan Arenado. “I know they’ve always cared about winning. This organization knows how to win and that’s what we’re trying to do.”
Seventeen
The streak didn’t start with a speech or even a moment that no player could recall as being so memorable. Team leaders including Wainwright, Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter preached “stay the course,” a phrase often used in professional sports.
“There was no spark,” Miller said. “It was just nice to see the confidence we’ve had all year come to fruition.”
Mozeliak added, “What is predictable is the type of play. Before the streak we were playing baseball much better.”
In the days leading up to the start, the Cardinals actually lost four in a row, including the first two in a four-game series against the Dodgers at home.
“A lot of us were talking, as we played against the Dodgers the teams in front of us were playing a softer schedule, so we knew the Dodgers were a key series,” said Wainwright. “We lost those first two games, but winning those last two gave us a bit of a mojo before the next set.”
St. Louis defeated Los Angeles 5-4 on September 8. The next day produced another one-point victory over the reigning champions. Then Friday September 10 would be the last time the Cardinals would lose in the next 19 days, taking them from 3½ games on the second wild card to 6½ games.
Just like that, the race was over.
“You see a bunch of guys who got their roles figured out and clicked at the same time,” Wainwright said midway through the streak. “The timing is also very important.”
They blew up teams, they came from behind and they won single point deals, all while having fun. Lester believed he could remember winning 10 straight games at most at some point in his career, while Wainwright recalled an eight-game streak in a row in 2006.
But nothing like that.
Arenado is in baseball heaven in his new home after spending his last two seasons in Colorado, much closer to NL West’s basement than a playoff race.
“The energy is great,” Arenado said before winning the No.14. “It’s fun coming to the clubhouse. Lots of people are on the first bus now. There is new energy. Sometimes in the season is like, ‘okay, gotta go to the stadium.’ Now it’s like, ‘hey man, can’t wait to get out on the pitch.’
“I get anxious at 10:30 in the morning.”
And with the victory came new superstitions in the Cardinals clubhouse.
“We have a few guys in there with some holy underwear that needs to be replaced,” Wainwright joked during the streak. “One guy in particular has stuff lying around but he can’t change it.”
The streak propelled the Cardinals into the playoffs and confirmed what Mozeliak and Shildt talked about in private.
“Maybe we are both eternal optimists,” Mozeliak said. “We believed in this club.”
Sometimes that’s all it takes.
And a bit of pitching. And three, 30 home hitters named Paul Goldschmidt, Arenado and Tyler O’Neill.
The streak has finally ended, but the Cardinals’ season continues for at least one more night. Beating the reigning world champions could catapult them to unthinkable heights as they were away for the playoffs just a month ago.
“These sequences are so rare,” Arenado said. “It was fun but we can’t stop now.”
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