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Welcome to week 5 of the WR / CB Matchups article.
This series was previously called “Matches to Target and Avoid”, but is now called “Matches to Target and Demote”. Too many times a WR has a tough game and produces anyway. A tough game is no guarantee that a WR will disappoint. On the other hand, an easy game doesn’t always mean a huge game. There are a myriad of reasons why a player can fail in an easy game and excel in a difficult game. The graph is best used to understand the context of matches in general, and not to predict outcomes.
That said, the Week 4 article did deliver very good results in terms of how-to tips. DJ Moore, Tyler Boyd, DeVonta Smith and Jamison Crowder were mentioned in the target section, while Terry McLaurin was highlighted. In the downgrade section, some caution was taken regarding three quite a few DFS games in CeeDee Lamb, Cole Beasley, and Brandin Cooks. I also predicted that Tre Flowers would end up being benched, and he was. Unfortunately for Seahawks fans, his replacement Sidney Jones gave up a monster game to Deebo Samuel. Stephon Gilmore would have made sense for Seattle, but instead they chose to stick with bad writing and bad training while wasting Russell Wilson’s best years.
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Graph Details
The CB correspondence table below is an overview of each team’s cornerback group with regard to the awarding of Fantasy Points. There are inherent flaws in compiling corner clearance data. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1v1 game in an NFL game is unfair because of zone covers, mental errors, some passing concepts and a million other things. Assigning fancy points to a cornerback is not a perfect science.
The purpose of this table is to give a more general idea of how the defenses deal with opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when and how each encounter occurred. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up most of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side for each snap, so they will not be associated with the same CB for each snap.
The “Rtng” column is the score of each cornerback based on study and film analysis. The higher a player is rated, the easier the match is for WR, so low scores are green and high scores are red. The “PPGA” is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means that the corner could possibly overshadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is suffering from an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green are easy to match. The WRs highlighted in light red are having a tough game. The graphic is a useful tool, but should not be used as a starting / sitting cheat sheet.
Cornerback odds and correspondence table – Week 5
Click on the image for a full screen view
WR / CB matches to target
We start with Thursday Night Football when the Seahawks welcome the Rams. The aforementioned Sidney Jones will likely see a lot of Robert Woods, which gives Woods a bump. Seattle has actually been pretty good against slots, but Cooper Kupp is match-proof.
Speaking of match-proof, Tyreek Hill takes on the Buffalo secondary miser this week. It does not matter. Hill is a must-see every week and I will never put it in the downgrade section for two reasons. One, he’s unstoppable because of his speed, and two, he’s playing all over the lineup.
I wrote about the 49ers’ bad receiver last week, and it became clear that the Fantastic Market was far from drafting Brandon Aiyuk vs. Deebo Samuel this summer. The two have great clashes against the Cardinals corners. However, don’t be shocked if Aiyuk flips the script at some point. People are getting way too declarative in terms of early season trends. There is still over 75% of the season left and things can and will change. Even if Aiyuk remains a non-factor and Samuel ends up in the top 5 WR, just keep an open mind that there will be situations that change so drastically that we say “remember week 4 when we thought ___________ ? “
Corey Davis had a big day against the Titans in Week 4 and this week he faces a poor defense against the Falcons pass in London. Launch it as a solid game.
Our good friend Eli Apple is now playing RCB due to injuries for the Bengals which means Davante Adams is getting an upgrade. It should bounce back after a relatively quiet 4 week there. Adams moves around a lot, but the good news is that Trae Waynes isn’t very good either, so Adams and Allen Lazard will both have some advantageous clashes regardless.
The Chiefs gave up the second-highest number of fantasy points to WR1 opponents, so it’s a great place for Stefon Diggs in a potential shootout.
DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle beat Tampa Bay high school this week. Both are well placed but need better QB efficiency, more aDOT, or more volume to hit their caps.
Marvin Jones was a bust last Thursday, but gets a boost this week against a bad CB group from Tennessee as a clear top outside of WR for Trevor Lawrence. Laviska Shenault Jr. also gets a bump without DJ Chark, as the Titans gave up the second-most fantasy points to slots this season.
Washington’s defense has been abominable despite having good BCs previously in high school. Regardless of the issues for the football team’s defense, Marquez Callaway and the Saints’ receivers all have easy clashes based on points allowed this season.
Jaylon Johnson has been good to the Bears, but Kindle Vildor and Duke Shelley are easily exploitable. Henry Ruggs III and Hunter Renfrow both have easy clashes.
I didn’t think I would mention John Ross in that space this season, but the Cowboys have funneled production to the RWRs thanks to Trevon Diggs. Ross (or Darius Slayton) could be worth a dart throw in DFS. Kadarius Toney (or Sterling Shepard) also gets the burnable Jourdan Lewis. The lesson here is that Diggs is good and the rest of Dallas high school is bad.
Indianapolis will likely have to start Isaiah Rodgers, which gives the Ravens a hard blow outside of the WRs when they line up on the right. He’s Sammy Watkins more than anyone, so he’s getting an upgrade.
I don’t know what’s going on with the Titans’ WRs, but if AJ Brown is playing it’s a smash against Tyson Campbell, who went from slot to LCB and wasn’t good.
Finally, the Eagles have just given up on a huge game at Tyreek Hill, but still represent a tough clash for outside receivers. I’m not sure who will play the most slots this week for Carolina, but Terrace Marshall Jr. has played more slots than anyone else and Avonte Maddox isn’t as good as Steven Nelson or Darius Slay.
WR / CB matchups to downgrade
On the other side of Thursday night’s game, Jalen Ramsey will likely cover DK Metcalf more than any other CB Rams. Metcalf didn’t produce much against him last year. The Rams are also good against the LWRs, so Tyler Lockett gets a downgrade as well.
I mentioned the Eagles’ outside corners as tough clashes earlier, so DJ Moore and Robby Anderson will struggle when they line up on the outside this week. Moore is definitely match-proof at this point, so don’t worry.
Michael Pittman Jr. has a target share going for him, which is usually far more important than the game. However, his QB has not been effective and he faces tough turns in Baltimore this week. I would consider sitting it down if you’re stacked at WR. In the same game, Zach Pascal gets a downgrade because the Ravens have been excellent at limiting slot production.
Mike Williams has just completed his first disappointing performance. Hopefully he doesn’t revert to his disappointing old form. The Browns were good against WR1 and the slots, so he and Keenan Allen were downgraded. You’re probably not on the bench either.
Kenny Golladay faces Trevon Diggs, who has had at least one interception in every game this season. Kenny G is still a decent role-based play, especially if Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton sit down again.
Diontae Johnson has no drop this season but his QB looks cooked. Denver is a tough game.
Odell Beckham Jr. faces the Chargers’ side miser this week. I mentioned the Chargers as a dark horse defense before the season. I bet they get tougher as the season goes on.
The Patriots have just thwarted the Bucs’ prolific passing offense and will move from planning the game against Tom Brady to this week against the legendary Davis Mills. Brandin Cooks started the season hot, but I would look elsewhere this week. He can be followed by JC Jackson.
Jalen Reagor appeared in Optimizers last week, didn’t do much, and now has to face Donte Jackson. The Panthers have been great against the RWRs this season.
If Tee Higgins plays, he could see a lot of Jaire Alexander, arguably the best cover corner in the league. If he doesn’t play, Alexander could follow Ja’Marr Chase. This is a situation to watch out for.
In that same game, Tyler Boyd will face a Packers defense that has allowed WR slots the fewest points this season.
Tampa Bay’s away WR get a tough draw against Miami, with Antonio Brown specifically slated to see more of Xavien Howard based on roster data. It’s not the best place for him.
Joe Haden has been great for the Steelers, so Tim Patrick will see a downgrade from the game in addition to a possible downgrade from QB. I would look elsewhere.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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