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It only took six years and a pandemic, but Bond is finally back – and No time to die could be on the cusp of making a historically significant box office debut.
This weekend is locked in and busy for the much-anticipated and long-awaited release of the 25th James Bond film, which will notably be Daniel Craig’s last as an iconic character. It has been the subject of numerous titles over the past few years, not the least of which centered around the film’s release delays (four of them, actually) as the world and the film industry were struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Now, however, moviegoers are returning. The domestic market has shown some incredibly positive box office trends throughout 2021, including more recently Venom: let there be carnageoutperforming to set a pandemic record with $ 90 million in its first weekend and also surpass the $ 80.3 million opening of its predecessor three years ago.
This latest achievement is impressive and takes into account the final predictions for Craig’s 007 final. We were already bullish on Bond’s outlook, but there is even more reason to be bullish now. Apart from A Quiet Place, Part II in May, which squinted ahead of its own predecessor’s 2018 opening weekend. the Carnage was the first tentpole sequel in four months to far exceed all expectations and to indicate that the box office cap on some films could increase.
Admittedly, a movie is not a trend, but it follows Shang-Chi‘s dominate the September race after also opening higher than expected during peak Delta variant worries towards the end of summer. Today, however, sentiment among moviegoers is improving (again) and the fall weather means indoor activities – like going to the movies – are increasingly appealing to those who are tired of watching. new content exclusively at home for a year and a half.
Enter James Bond. After the huge success of 2012 Fall from the sky, it was hard to imagine a Bond film again capturing the zeitgeist in such a way any time soon. This film had the synergy of the franchise’s 50th anniversary, rave reviews and word of mouth, and a hugely popular title track from Adele to propel it into the pop culture stratosphere.
No time to die may be on a comparable track, albeit for mostly different reasons. Coupled with Craig’s well-promoted and high-profile final factor, as well as Billie Eilish’s GRAMMY-winning title track, Bond’s latest epic is way ahead of 2015. Spectrum (it opened at $ 70.4 million).
Social media activity far exceeded this film’s footprint around the same time before its release, and internal modeling suggests No time to die is well ahead of the pace of recent blockbusters like F9, Bad boys for life, and Mission: Impossible – Fallout.
Fandango himself reported on Wednesday that his own presales for No time to die exceed those of F9 and the Venom Sequel That last mention fueled the fire by speculating that Bond could be on the verge of shattering expectations.
Context is king, however. Bond is a franchise that is generally aimed at an older audience than most comic book photos. 75 percent of Spectrum‘s opening weekend was driven by those over 25, while 49% were over 35. It’s an audience that has been a bit more cautious about returning to cinema so far this year, but mostly among women and parents (with regarding children’s films). Adult men, however, have long been a mainstay of the box office recovery since as far back as the pre-vaccination period last year.
The good news for Bond: while the first Venom young (71% under 25), Sony tells Boxoffice PRO that Carnage was more balanced at just 55 percent below that age threshold.
Even better for Bond, the series is generally less busy in preview than the comic book franchises – which means a higher tendency to see post-preview shows, a lower share of presales versus last-minute deals. and walk-in, and stronger multiples throughout the weekend and weeks to come as long as word of mouth is positive. The film already has a solid 84% review score from Rotten Tomatoes.
As Carnage, which took advantage of theatrical exclusivity for its big debut, No time to die has true event status with no streaming options to be found at home. The show’s Creative Shepherds at EON Productions have ensured that this film is only for theaters and theaters until the time is right for audiences to see it. Based on the strong international start of the $ 121 million film last week, they have been vindicated and this success is increasingly likely to translate into the domestic market.
Where Bond also differs from the Venom the result, however, is the run time. Almost an hour longer than the comic book sequel, No time to die will not have as many projections in small to medium sized circuits. According to The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes dashboard, the 007 movie is currently booked for about 120,000 showings from Wednesday to the end of Sunday in a sample of 3,451 national locations. By comparing, Carnage claimed 148,000 screenings in 3,532 locations of its previews from Thursday to Sunday evening.
The tandem performances of Carnage at home and Bond abroad quickly raised the question in industry circles as to whether or not No time to die may land $ 100 million at the North American box office this weekend. All of the above context regarding the older audience comes first when trying to answer this question, as does the reality that no Bond movie has ever hit the mark before. Fall from the sky$ 88.4 million is the franchise record, but that comparison is nine years old. Adjusted for current ticket price estimates, a similar level of attendance would translate into over $ 100 million under normal circumstances.
What better time than now for 007, at the end of a beloved era in Bond history thanks to Craig’s run and the creative evolution that followed it, to finally make the leap? There is enough data to suggest the possibility, but only in our final models. This is far from a certainty, and it is not necessary to approach such a benchmark to make the film a success.
For a film with many meta-moments and qualities that seem oddly relevant to the film industry these days, it seems entirely appropriate that No time to die could do something unprecedented, but it will take an influx of more pre-pandemic trends to reach that upper echelon of expectations this weekend – namely a high turnout of adults aged 30-35 and / or a young audience expanded.
United Artists Releasing is distributing the film nationally to 4,407 locations this weekend, the largest release in North America since the start of the pandemic. Previews began Wednesday evening with exclusive IMAX screenings at 7 p.m., followed by national premieres Thursday evening. Unless confirmed otherwise, we would expect the grosses of all of these pre-Friday shows to be incorporated into the weekend’s take.
Forecast ranges
No time to die
Weekend opening range: $ 70 to $ 105 million
Venom: let there be carnage
Second weekend beach: $ 23-28 million
Weekend forecast
The top ten box office projects of this weekend will be increase between 5 and 20 percent of the top 10 total of $ 126.0 million from last weekend.
The NTTD forecast below will be finalized before the end of Thursday evening.
| Movie | Distributer | 3-day weekend forecast | Indoor total projected until Sunday October 10 | Number of locations | % change since last weekend |
| No time to die | MGM / EON / United Artists release | $ 84,000,000 (provisional) | $ 84,000,000 (provisional) | 4,407 | NEW |
| Venom: let there be carnage | Sony Pictures / Colombia | $ 25,000,000 | 134 $ 100,000 | 4,225 | -72% |
| The Addams Family 2 | United Artists Released | $ 10,500,000 | $ 31,800,000 | 4,207 | -39% |
| Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten rings | Disney / Marvel Studios | $ 3,600,000 | $ 211,900,000 | 2,800 | -41% |
| The Many Saints of Newark | Photos of Warner Bros. | $ 1,700,000 | $ 7,800,000 | ~ 3,181 | -63% |
| free guy | 20th century workshops | $ 1,300,000 | $ 119,700,000 | 1495 | -43% |
| Dear Evan Hansen | Universal Images | $ 1,000,000 | $ 13,700,000 | 1,927 | -59% |
| fellow | Universal Images | $ 650,000 | $ 60,000,000 | 1,153 | -49% |
| Lamb | A24 | $ 600,000 | $ 600,000 | ~ 550 | NEW |
| Jungle cruise | Walt disney studios | $ 375,000 | $ 116,700,000 | 445 | -47% |
All predictions subject to revision before first confirmation of Thursday previews or Friday estimates from studios or alternative sources.
The number of theaters is updated as confirmed by the studios.
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