MLB playoffs: four things the White Sox need to do to recover from their ALDS deficit against Astros

American League Division Series Games 1 and 2 couldn’t have been worse for the Chicago White Sox. The ChiSox were stopped by Houston Astros ace Lance McCullers Jr. in the Game 1 loss (HOU 6, CWS 1), then their much-vaunted enclosure melted in the Game 2 loss (HOU 9, CWS 4). Chicago is one loss from elimination as the team heads home for Game 3.

“We’re back to the wall right now,” shortstop Tim Anderson told reporters, including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, after the Game 2 loss. “We know what we need to do and we need to get on with business. We have to keep fighting and keep pushing. ”

In the age of the wild card, only seven teams have returned to win a best-of-five series after falling 2-0, most recently against the 2017 Yankees. They rallied to win three straight games afterwards. losing games 1 and 2 in Cleveland. Here are four things that need to happen for the White Sox to have a chance to complete the ALDS comeback against the ‘Stros.

1. Get a dominant start in game 3

The great Alex Speier from Boston Globe did the research a few years ago and found just about every team that came back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five series received a dominant start in Game 3. It was also true for the 2017 Yankees. Masahiro Tanaka pitched seven white innings in a 1-0 win in Game 3 to boost the comeback. It all starts with the guy on the mound.

The White Sox have yet to announce their start for Game 3, but there are only two candidates, realistically: Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodón. Rodon enjoyed a superior regular season, although he missed time with a shoulder problem in September and showed significantly reduced speed on his return. He sat around 96 mph all summer then outmoded at 92.8 mph on its last start.

“The fact that we’re always optimistic means he’s showing enough, but the throws he has to make by Sunday and Monday, they dictate,” manager Tony La Russa told reporters, including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, Friday. “He throws, you see how he reacts. I don’t know for sure, and he doesn’t know for sure. We’ve had a lot of talk about this.”

If Rodón is compromised, Cease is the best option for Game 3. Cease’s command can come and go, but he can also miss bats in the area with his power, that’s pretty much the only way to beat the relentless Astros. They have one of the lowest chase rates in MLB, so they won’t expand the area. You have to beat them in the area. Cease can do it, or at least has the potential to do it.

Either way, Cease or Rodón, getting a dominant start in Game 3 is imperative. Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito combined to allow nine runs in eight innings in Games 1 and 2, putting enormous pressure on the bullpen. The White Sox really need someone to come out, keep the Astros off the board in the middle of the innings and give the offense a chance to forge a lead.

2. Rediscover the coup

Speaking of offense, the White Sox hitters had 18 hits in Games 1 and 2 combined, and all 18s were singles. Not a single extra-basic shot. They are only the fifth team in history with zero extra-base hits in their first two playoff games, joining the 1926 Yankees, 1939 Reds, 1974 Pirates and 1981 Royals. These four teams have all lost their streak.

“I’m the kind of person who when we lose likes to focus on the positive,” reigning AL MVP José Abreu told reporters, including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, after the opener. “I think everyone did their best today But we also have to recognize the work of the Astros. Their pitcher was good and they did a good job. We will focus on tomorrow now.”

The Chicago offense had baseball’s third highest ground ball rate during the regular season and that played directly on the strengths of McCullers and Framber Valdez. Valdez had the highest ground ball rate in baseball this year, McCullers the fifth, and unless you’re shooting down the line, ground balls often don’t go for extra bases. They were bad games for the ChiSox.

Here are the locations of Chicago’s batted balls in Games 1 and 2. They only hit five balls on the warning lane in both games.

Credit to Houston pitchers. They have been wonderful. The White Sox had the 10th highest hitting percentage in baseball during the regular season and the Astros choked them out. Chaining singles and marches against playoff-caliber pitchers isn’t easy. When you get a throw to hit you had better do some damage. Extra-basic hits are the cornerstone of a playoff offense.

The tide could turn in Game 3. The Astros start rookie right-hander Luis Garcia, who had one of baseball’s lowest ground ball rates during the regular season. In addition, Garcia has already pitched 155 1/3 innings this year, almost 50 innings more than his previous career record. Fatigue seemed to be a problem at times on the home stretch and a tired pitcher is an offensive advantage.

Abreu, Anderson and Luis Robert have a combined 13 for 24 (.542) in the ALDS. The rest of the White Sox are 5 for 44 (114). It is untenable. All three of these guys need some help, and that help has to come in the form of some extra hits. Homers, doubles, whatever best allows baserunners to advance more than 90 feet at a time. The ChiSox need their power kick to come back.

3. Use Kopech aggressively

The White Sox have 12 pitchers on their ALDS roster and only three are yet to appear in the series: Cease and Rodón, their Game 3 and 4 starters (in either order) and flame thrower Michael Kopech. La Russa gave a curious answer when asked why Kopech was not used in the Game 2 loss on Friday.

“We were going to play the game today, and if we needed him to win the game, we would have pitched him,” La Russa told reporters, including Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports Chicago. “… [His ability to go multiple innings is] another great asset for us. We didn’t have to waste it. He could have pitched a round today and still be available. It will be even more available. ”

The White Sox had a 4-2 lead in the fifth inning of Game 2, and the score was tied 4-4 through the seventh, so it seems to me they needed Kopech to win the game. What is done is done yet. Kopech was not used in games 1 or 2 and this cannot continue. It’s time to let the Ferrari out of the garage. Kopech can overpower the hitters in the zone and that’s how you beat the Astros.

In a perfect world, the White Sox would pair Kopech with Rodón, who might not be able to provide a ton of length as he comes out of the shoulder issue. However, they no longer have the luxury of being picky. Every game, the rest of the series, is a must win, and if that means using Kopech after Cease in Game 3 and finding out about Game 4 later, so be it.

4. Have a little luck

At this point, the White Sox will need more than talent to beat the Astros. Houston is just too good. ChiSox need a few bounces to go their way, a few calls to go their way, and things to break in general. The best teams are good and lucky, and Chicago hasn’t had any luck in the ALDS so far. It starts with talent. Without a doubt. The White Sox need a good start from their starter in Game 3 and they need the offense to do more than just slaps. They also need a few breaks.