Anniversary of Tesla's 11th Birthday – Start or Join an Event!

March 31, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

---

I followed Tesla closely for about 7 years. Trusted predictions of Tesla's impending death have been commonplace for much longer than that. These come from auto-chair experts, retired car executives, non-retired car executives, very courageous short-term sellers, unenthusiastic short-term sellers, ignoramuses or contenders. to be TV hosts and journalists without understanding anything, forgetting to honor here.

I do not know exactly when the first prediction of bankruptcy or death at startup was made, but the infamous "Tesla Death Watch" took place on May 19, 2008. Something has come to me. mind recently – why not have fun with this game – put an end to the hype? Why not play a little with the current activists for smudging and have fun at heart?

The idea that came to my mind was, let's start a celebration of Tesla's death anniversary!

The idea of ​​the event is simple. We encourage all Tesla owners and fans to start or join Tesla's celebrations on May 19, 2019. If you would like to create or join one with our support, go to our contact form and choose the option. "I wish to host or participate in an anniversary event of the 11-year-old Tesla's death!"

If you are not sure yet, take your time to think about it – you have two and a half months to consider and make plans. But seriously, go, what to think ?!

That's all there is to it. We will encourage the organizers to focus on testing and show off the awesome Tesla 3, X, S and Roadster models, but it's really up to them to decide how to celebrate. You can organize a house party, a pool party or a Tesla camping party.

You can launch an epic road trip, organize a Tesla parade, plan a Tesla drag racing day or create a Tesla scavenger hunt.

You can organize a junk food party, organize a day of pranks using Tesla Summon or try to break the record of the greatest number of Model X dancers.

I'm sure there are many ingenious ideas that owners and fans of Tesla could offer to celebrate the 11th anniversary of his death. The only thing I can not understand is why would not organize or join a Tesla death anniversary event.

To get you in the mood, I will republish below three of my favorite items from our Tesla Flashbacks series. Enjoy!

---

August 29, 2018

Ten years ago, CNBC, now enraged, did not know Tesla from your mother. Fox News was busy complaining that Obama had been encouraging the public to properly inflate his tires. Looking for alpha? Well, I could not find any Tesla article on Seeking Alpha published in August 2008. But some geniuses on a website called "The truth about cars" were on something. They published episode # 17 of their "Tesla Death Watch".

Here is the core of this insightful post:

"They are heading for the 100 cars promised a month. You know; once they have their crap transmission together. in October. Or pretty much. Or later. At the same time, according to a Tesla bulletin published Wednesday evening, the assembly plant Lotus Hethel, England, has about fifteen cars "ready to be shipped" AC without battery and powertrain. I'll admit it: fifteen cars is fourteen more than what I've built (do not ask). But did you see Tesla's showroom? These boys from Silicon Valley are not exactly Scrooge McDuck in terms of overhead. Even if you calculate each customer car at the new price of $ 120,000, it is only a gross revenue of $ 1.8 million. What is the bet that each of these cars will end up costing Tesla (at the time of David Brown's Aston Martin)? It does not matter. Saving the planet is hard work, but someone must do it. "

You talk about smart cookies, huh? They really saw what was happening. Tesla was doomed. He certainly could not build cars. And he did not manage his money. And if Tesla were building cars, those cars would certainly cost more to build and market than customers would pay. Too bad, Tesla could have built fun cars if she had survived.

Episode 16 was released a week ago. Here is an excerpt from this:

"Now, if Tesla can simply increase its production, not its" fad out ", keep costs under control seen this showroom?), collect more money, build a more profitable product and repel competitors, we can remove them from Death Watch. "

Ha. Clever. Funny. Insightful. Spot on the money. Of course, Tesla could not do any of these things. Fortunately the brave souls of "The Truth About Cars" called a cat a cat.

Oh, wait – Tesla did not die in 2008?

Strangely, not only is it not dead, but some of the same contributors to the Death Watch blog continue to claim that Tesla will collapse from one day to the next. (Note: they do not write more about "The truth about cars." In fact, their credibility has made some of them go to even bigger websites.)

Here is an excerpt from an article published in 2008 by one of the savvy critics who continues to proudly proclaim the imminent fate of Tesla:

Tesla Motors said it has secured 90 hectares between San Jose and Santa Clara, California, for the construction of its global headquarters. Oh, and production facilities for its (supposedly) future Model S sedan (nee White Star). The announcement is generating excitement among people who use terms such as "green collar jobs" and "clean technologies". "

Stupid hippies.

The team of bloggers also performed a community service by accusing Megan Fox of talking about the Tesla she would buy one day. "Anyway, your money is not good at Tesla, Megan. And that's where the story lies. "That's right, it's just a dream, because Tesla can not build cars, you see?

Oh, I forgot a big episode. In July 2008, the guarantors of the car relied on the always brilliant and useful New York Times (Yes, this New York Times). Here is a quote from the piece in the Time:

"The fact that Tesla has managed to manufacture an expensive electric sports car does not mean that it will be able to manufacture a moderately priced five-seater sedan. The latter is a quantum leap more difficult … David Cole, president of the Center for Automotive Research, is another skeptic of Tesla. On the one hand, he says, the Roadster's battery solution will probably not work in a heavier car. "Lithium batteries will change the world," he said, "but they are not ready for prime time." Tesla's solution in the Roadster – combining thousands of small batteries into one is "suboptimal". "On a scale of difficulty, building a sports car is a 2. Building an affordable high-volume car, it's a 10." … The more I worried, the more I became skeptical. "

The real mechanics did not want to be left out of smart predictions, adding, "Join the Joe club. And thanks for reading. "You see, it's not just New York Timers who are smart. Even garage owners can identify a joke when they see one. They can even write a good joke from time to time. Exhibit A:

Do you think that "fraud" is a new favorite word of Tesla's enemies? Come on, this one is timeless! Well, it goes back at least to 2009.

"According to Gawker, Daryl Siry, director of the Tesla building, left the Silicon Valley startup because CEO Elon Musk (above) was pushing to accept deposits on the Model S sedan. Model S (aka WhiteStar) only exists as a prototype. Tesla has no plants or funding to build it. When Musk announced that DOE would approve Tesla's loan application (they would not have done so and probably would not have done so) and decided to accept $ 40,000 in Model S deposits (next month ), Siry felt the fraud and ran away.

Fortunately, Siry left in 2009, before the shit hits the fan and he loses one. tonne d & # 39; money. (Full disclosure: I do not remember ever having seen Siry's name, and I can not at all check if the above statements are valid.) In any case, it seems that he left the ship just before it is burned and sunk, the lucky one.)

The author's historical end to this article: "In the meantime, anecdotal evidence from Tesla forums indicates that the real winner here is the Fisker Karma."

Ah, indeed, the Fisker Karma.

To be fair, Fisker could be back, and the author of the above article always warns people that Tesla could collapse at any time.

A few months later, here is the title of another article on the Truth about Cars blog: "Tesla's Ponzi Scheme is worth about $ 2.6 million. At least." Ponzi scheme – clever. Who could have imagined such a spirit? I just have the honor of being alive at that time, to cherish the literature that just came out of the keyboards of the current bands Mark Twains and George Bernard Shaws.

Ok, it's been 9 years, so maybe it's not very cool anymore. But is not this irrelevant? We can integrate "Ponzi" with the coverage of Tesla every day.

The Death Watch team also found a letter from Tesla CEO and President Elon Musk in 2009, which can be postponed to today:

"That's why I'm so concerned about the ongoing leak of media. Free communication is really penalized when even minor problems are disclosed and exceeded. It is crazy that a company like Tesla, who is doing very well right now (how many companies can say that they were sold until October?), Should suffer from the same. misleading articles that would have no credibility on blog sites. leakage inside. Leaks are often not even accurate!

Fortunately, the media did much better not to exaggerate minor issues.

The next step is a good one to finish with today. The title is too perfect. Again, this story is about 2009. Here it is: "Tesla claims profitability: do we believe it?"

That's right – do not believe Elon Musk or anyone from Tesla when they tell you they're going to make a profit or actually just started making a profit. Yes, scammers can be liars, and even though liars may be profitable, a liar is a fraud and you simply can not believe liars and scammers when they tell you they are profitable.

By the way, if you dare to venture into the comments of any of the stories mentioned above, you will find that the first jewels of the discussions are still happening today on Twitter, Seeking Alpha, CNBC, and even under some conditions. CleanTechnica articles. It's like nothing has changed.

It does not matter that Tesla has gone from building a handful of Roadsters to producing about 20,000 cars a month, or 240,000 cars a year.

Oh, wow, are you still here? As a reward for your perseverance, I spent some time trying to find my first article on Tesla. We started covering Tesla on CleanTechnica in March 2009 with the article "The new Tesla Model S is … very sexy," but my first article about the company was only written in May 2012, when published "Tesla Motors will begin to deliver models". S, June 22. It was a little over six years ago, but it's like being decades away.

That was a quote from Elon Musk in a May 2012 article: "In 2006, our plan was to build an electric sports car followed by an affordable electric sedan and reduce our dependence on oil. . The delivery of the Model S is a key element of this plan and represents Tesla's transition to a mass-market manufacturer and the most convincing automotive company of the 21st century. Many laughed. Who laughs now?

---

January 12, 2019

I was looking for old information on the X model Friday and I came across some interesting old facts that made me think about the development of Tesla. Then I came across more. And more. So I decided to compose this article on some Tesla flashbacks.

In 2009, a prominent automotive journalist had bet $ 1 million to Elon Musk that Tesla could not deploy the Model S by the end of 2012 with the specifications presented. Tesla did it. Elon still donated $ 1 million to a charity.

In 2010, Toyota and Tesla announced that they would team up for an affordable electric car. Confused? It was the Toyota RAV4 EV, with Tesla internal components and Toyota exterior. It was a car very much appreciated by the few people who had one in their garages, but it did not see many states, let alone other countries.

In 2011, Tesla planned to sell between 30,000 and 35,000 S and X model vehicles combined each year. Tesla now sells 100,000 per year.

Also in 2011, Elon Musk had forecast that Tesla would make a quarterly profit in 2013. (Snicker, snicker.) It made.

In 2012, Tesla was very enthusiastic because he had received 500 Model X bookings in 4 days! (Seriously.) My God, how times have changed!

In late 2012, Tesla opened its first two superchargers on the east coast of the United States.

In January 2013, we discovered that Tesla was wearing the "Model Y" brand, which would mean that the eventual range of Tesla vehicles would be SEXY (at the time, it was expected that the Tesla Model 3 would be the Tesla Model E … before Ford blocked the event).

Also in 2013, Tesla announced that it was delaying the release of Model X for nearly a year … because the Model S was so popular. It's something that has long been forgotten or neglected, but it was an early sign of demand for Tesla vehicles, far superior to what everyone had expected.

A few weeks later, Tesla proudly announced the production of 500 Model S sedans per week. Wow! (OK, I'm not kidding myself now, but it was a big milestone and a series of milestones over a number of years like this one led us to today, maybe at 90,000 Teslas a quarter will not look like small fries and even funny.)

Also in 2013, Elon Musk said that the company's 4th model (which had not yet been baptized Model 3) would be released by 2017. Many Tesla critics laughed at this as absurd. Tesla has actually released the 4th model in 2017.

In 2013, we also learned that the Tesla Model S was in the process of crushing the competition of big luxury cars in the United States. Of course, at the time, Tesla critics and critics claimed that the high demand was only a jolt, a short-term solution, and that demand was starting to fall and that Tesla was going to soon be seriously injured. In fact, the Model S continued to dominate the large luxury car segment and retain first place in 2018 – with a large margin.

In January 2014, I summarized the 13 electric vehicles sold that year in the US and Europe: BMW i3, BMW i8, Tesla X model, Volkswagen e-Up !, Volkswagen e-Golf, Cadillac ELR, Kia Soul EV, Mercedes-Benz B-Class electric, Porsche Panamera Plug-in S E-Hybrid, Nissan e-NV200 and three Via Motors models (which have never been delivered to the general public). The times have changed!

---

I recently had fun digging through Tesla's old stories and situating them in the context of the progress of society to date, which can make it fascinating. I also mentioned 11 years of FUD about Tesla and the announcement of its impending demise over the last ten years. And I explored 8 "impossible" goals that the company has achieved. I had however forgotten that a reader had sent a list of his favorite reminders in October. It's an excellent list too, so I'm writing about it here for a new series of "Tesla Flashbacks".

In 2012, an IHS analyst seemed to be launching the FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) related to the idea of ​​Tesla killers before anyone, to my knowledge, started it. He said: "Several factors remain unfavorable to the company, one of the most important of which is a major competitive disadvantage compared to the efforts of the major automakers, despite the massive influx of liquidity that Tesla has benefited.

"The $ 57,400 and more $ 64,900 and more 2012 Tesla Model S will be a curious proposition for a luxury car buyer. It is entering a segment (luxury sport sedans) that does not have huge volumes – and in which brand loyalty tends to be strong.

"Tesla likes to suggest that the Model S is unique and will stand out from the competition that includes pillars like the BMW 5 Series, the Mercedes-Benz E Class and a dozen other models.

"Maybe if – Tesla's sales targets are not very ambitious, they could be achieved.It is possible to sell a few thousand of everything in this country, at the novelty value." IHS Automotive predicts that if Tesla manages to market his car, it will probably sell at least a few thousand.

"But the idea that Tesla can sell tens of thousands of Model S sedans in the United States is crazy. The most popular vehicles in this segment are selling only a few tens of thousands, with some models – Audi A6, Jaguar XF, Lexus GS – well below 10,000 sales per year.

"Do not forget that hybrid vehicles, which are much easier to own and use than pure electric cars, still account for only 2 to 3 percent of the total US market. And a recent research note from Deloitte & Touche suggests that the question of whether car buyers really want electrified vehicles is still debated. "

Madness indeed. Was this guy really paid for his analysis? Of course, it has been, just as countless other analysts have said the same thing.

I must admit that I participated in a number of conference calls with industry analysts in which I was clearly in an "extreme" corner and that there had to be a "pro-Tesla" voice in the debate. In the end, my arguments were much more fruitful than those I've heard over the years.

In the same interview, however, the analyst pointed to Tesla's impressive level of vertical integration and in-house production. "I did not know how much the Model S technology had been developed internally.

"Tesla makes almost everything on the Model S itself. The exceptions are some of the more difficult ones, like the pedals and the steering column, provided by Daimler. Tesla even manufactures its own molded plastic parts using machines left behind by Toyota at the Fremont, Calif., Assembly plant. "

This ingenuity and ingenuity led the analyst to believe that Tesla had a better chance of survival than he thought.

"I still think that as a car manufacturer, Tesla needs a partner to survive in the long run. But he actually showed that he could find partners interested in other partnerships and that selling his own cars was not the only way to make money.

"I remain skeptical however about the market chances of the Model S and the actual demand for an all-electric sedan of over $ 57,400, a relatively unknown brand, compared to the modern competition and future. "

In 2014, CNN Business / CNN Money brilliantly concluded that Tesla's sales were slowing down. "Tesla plans to sell 35,000 copies of Model S worldwide in 2014, but Autodata estimates that sales in the United States grew less than 1% in the first quarter. … Investors worry more and more of a drop in shipments in North America in 2014, according to Adam Jonas, an automotive analyst at Morgan Stanley. "Model S's worldwide sales now rise to around 50,000 euros a year, just as Model X sales and Model 3 sales are much higher." These bitter analysts seem to be worried about nothing.

In April 2015, a technical journalist proposed a rather hilarious version of the Model S compared to BMW's new plug-in offerings. He drove a BMW i8 for a week and attracted a lot of attention. He does not seem to have caught the attention of the Tesla pilots, and he has come to some strange conclusions about it. "There was however a curious exception to all that techno worship: the Tesla Model S. pilots have dropped a window, taken a picture, or just wondered what it was all about. I shared a few punches with the owners of the BMW i3 and even the Chevy Volt, two other electric cars. But Tesla drivers have carefully avoided eye contact. I met two or three dozen during the week, but no Model S pilot had ever recognized the existence of my car: a threatening insecurity was inevitable. Tesla Motors has virtually invented the concept of the ecological supercar – at least at the consumer level – and has dominated the industry for three years. But next to the BMW I8, Tesla wore the patina of her age. "

Haha. Did the writer really think that the Model S drivers were not watching him, or the insecurity? They probably did not recognize the i8 because it does not compare to a Model S in many ways. This helps explain why the historical sales of the i8 look like a land species next to the Model S. sales hill so far.

"But the BMW i-Series, launched at the end of 2013 in Germany, wiped out any doubt as to whether Germany would be a competitor in what I call the Great Electrification Race. Indeed, although Porsche sells plug-in versions of its Panamera and Cayenne SUVs, the i8 is probably the first real challenger of Tesla's eco-chic model. I could create a sales chart showing that this idea was laughable, but honestly, it's not even worth the time. The i8 is a pretty fun car in its own way, but it's not a competitor of the Model S and has never been lucky enough to be. (For the record, I own a BMW i3 and I love it, and I love the style of the i8, but the reason I have an i3 is that its selling price on the second hand market was so lower than its original MSRP.It's also the first electric car I've driven, and I guess there's something like "first love" for me.)

In a 2015 article on BMWBlog (which, it is true, will naturally be pro BMW), the writer enthusiastically covered an experimental plug-in BMW hybrid with tons of power. He wrote, "Now, if / when Elon Musk hears about this, he will inevitably emphasize the fact that not only is The Thing experimental and that he also has experimental projects, but that" The Thing "uses an engine gasoline tandem. with electricity while the Model S does not do it. However, I think this is a selling point for BMW's technology, compared to the S model. Plug-in hybrids offer more flexibility as they can be filled with petrol if needed. Although Mr. Musk claims to eliminate distance-related anxiety, there is simply no scenario in which a pure electric car is within the reach of a plug-in hybrid. "

If you read CleanTechnica Regularly, some story that I published last weekend could have come to your mind by reading it. It turns out that Tesla has sold more than 3 models in 2018 in the United States as all other automakers have sold all their plug-in hybrid vehicles. Model 3 not only crushed BMW's plug-in hybrid models. He crushed BMW + GM + Ford + Daimler + Toyota + Honda + Chrysler + Mitsubishi + Hyundai + Kia + Volkswagen + Audi cars. Tell me again, how can a plug-in hybrid powertrain compete with a well-designed, all-electric powertrain?

In August 2015, Reuters "Silicon Valley automaker loses more than $ 4,000 on every S-model electric sedan sold, using its calculation of operating losses, and spent $ 359 million in cash last quarter on a bull market for vehicles of luxury. "It was a misrepresentation of history, or a misleading way of communicating what the company was doing. Tesla sold thousands of Model S's a month, each of them bringing money back to the company. (In fact, Tesla has long had relatively high gross margins on the S model.) At the same time, Tesla was investing a lot of money in rapid growth, a continuous development that would lead to where it is today – by selling tens of thousands of dollars. monthly cars and profitable.

In February 2016, only one of our favorites remains. It would be Bob Lutz, GM's former vice president (among others), claiming that Tesla's X model would be impossible to build and that Tesla's business model made no sense. "Tesla's business model is on the upside … their costs have always been greater than their revenues," Lutz told CNBC. "They must always get more capital, then they burn it.

"While [Tesla’s] the car is excellent, business has always been ugly. It's really ugly because the generic demand for electric vehicles is down. And here's why it's going to kill Tesla: whether or not there is demand from consumers for electric vehicles, big builders like Ford, GM, Toyota, Volkswagen … have to build electric cars – a number – for meet the requirements in about half of the states. They have to be stuck on the market, otherwise they will not be able to sell SUVs, full-size pickups and all that for which they are actually making money. This will generally drive down the prices of electric vehicles. …

"The X model seems impossible to build with these automatic swing doors, which everyone in the industry has always said they would not work."

The previous year, Lutz had said that Tesla was facing "[the] trifecta of misfortune … bleeding funds, securitized assets and an increase in inventories. "

Hush, no one tells Bob that Tesla now mass-produced model X (sold for around 50,000 euros a year), the disaster has dissipated and profitability has taken its place, the other manufacturers are still not in competition with Tesla, the demand for electric cars has increased rather than dropped. and the commercial model of Tesla seems to be very right.

Ok, let's just be right now – it was easy not to understand the benefit and prowess inherent to Tesla at the time, or even a few years ago. How could everyone know what Tesla was capable of and why its vehicles were and would be so much more competitive than those of other automakers? In fact, many followers have understood all this. They were often called without brain, Kool-Aid to drink, cult fanboys. They have been ignored by analysts and "car experts". They were pushed into a dark corner by most media. (En fait, il est difficile de penser à un média important qui ne présume pas que nous appartenions à un coin sombre.) Nous avons expliqué les avantages des spécifications, dans un groupe motopropulseur électrique bien conçu, dans une optique d'entreprise entièrement électrique, dans un matériel constant. et l’innovation logicielle dans des cycles de développement rapides, dans l’installation de composants essentiels par Tesla, etc. Mais nous étions juste des fanboys. Que pourrions-nous dire d'autre?

Peut-être qu'avec la prochaine série de cibles Tesla, il est temps que les principaux médias passent du temps à apprendre de ceux qui connaissent le mieux Tesla et peuvent donner une voix indépendante à la société sans jeter de pessimisme injustifié. Ou continuez simplement à faire ce que vous avez fait.

Keywords: Bob Lutz, Tesla, Anniversaire de la mort de Tesla, Montre de la mort de Tesla, Tesla modèle 3, Tesla modèle S, Tesla modèle X, Tesla Roadster, Ventes de Tesla, Actions de Tesla