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A powerful low pressure system should be installed in the Plains on Wednesday. (Weather Pivotal)
For the second time this spring, a powerful storm, probably historic, is expected to strengthen rapidly in the Plains this week. Like his predecessor, March's "cyclone bomb" is expected to create blizzard conditions in some areas and heavy rains, thunderstorms and floods in others, as well as a large area of high winds.
Despite the timing shift in April, the biggest problem with this storm suite could be the forecast and abundant snow projected by the wind from South Dakota to southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. But this is only part of the story.
South of the snow in the Great Plains, strong winds can also stoke fires.
Severe thunderstorms are also likely near the storm center in Kansas and Nebraska, as well as additional floods in the upper Midwest affecting the Missouri and Mississippi River basins.
The storm quickly takes shape Tuesday night as an icy river of air 30,000 feet above the ground crosses the Rockies. Wednesday, it will overflow on open plains, opening the way to an unstable situation.
The pressure at the center of the storm is expected to fall to 980 millibars or less. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. Compared to the 968 millibars low pressure associated with the bomb hurricane a few weeks ago in Colorado, this latest storm could be slightly less intense. But the pressure is still low in the region at this time of the year.
This low center will produce all kinds of adverse weather conditions. There are some main stories to watch for.
A blizzard can develop
We are well advanced in April, but in parts of the plains and the Midwest, it looks like winter. Not unheard but not typical.
Forecast of snowfall from the European meteorological model. (Weatherbell.com)
A vast area from Wyoming to southern Minnesota is already under winter surveillance, encompassing almost all of South Dakota up to northern Nebraska. Much of this area expects at least 8 to 12 inches of snow, and some places could see up to two feet or more.
"Strong winds and wind gusts will likely cause blowing snow and possibly blizzard conditions in some areas," wrote the weather forecast center in its recent forecast of the storm.
While the forecast is still in focus, Minneapolis could see an historic snowfall in april for a second year in a row:
Violent winds and danger of fire
These intense and sprawling storm systems tend to produce strong winds over a large area. In addition to the risk of blizzard on the north side, damaging winds are possible, especially south and west of the center.
Critical fire conditions are expected to develop in New Mexico on Tuesday, with a significant fire risk extending eastward. On Wednesday afternoon, the risk of extreme fire increases in the southern plains as the storm matures to the north.
"This pattern is known for its association with wildfire outbreaks in the southern Great Plains," wrote the Storm Prediction Center.
Although much of this area has experienced considerable improvement in drought conditions over the past year, it has been relatively dry in parts of the southern high plains until now in 2019. The beginning of spring is the fire season.
Generalized winds of 20 to 40 mph are likely to be in parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska and some surrounding areas on Wednesday. Gusts of 50 to 60 mph or more will also be possible. Taste conditions of lesser intensity ultimately translate to east by storm in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday and in the northeast by Friday.
More potential for flooding
Much of the rainfall with this system is expected to fall north of the snow. To the south, precipitation is usually light but can reach up to half an inch or an inch.
Some areas of southeastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and Nebraska can receive up to three inches or more of rainfall in the form of rain and snow. Fortunately, there is no real layer of snow that can melt under the new precipitation expected, which greatly aggravated the floods a few weeks ago.
Even then, precipitation is excessive for these areas, including the Mississippi and Missouri river basins. No matter what falls, the snow will melt fairly quickly after the storm.
In Burlington, Iowa, for example, the Mississippi is about to be flooded with heavy floods and is expected to rise a bit in the middle of the week.
Depending on how this new volume of water enters rivers, the floods could worsen in the coming days and it is expected that this problem will remain in the middle section of the country this spring.
Severe thunderstorms
Given all the other dangers of this storm, he is pleased to note that moisture – which could fuel many severe storms – is relatively lacking for this system.
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be somewhat limited.
While the lower moisture content should mean that thunderstorms are not as widespread as they could be, any storm that forms can be synonymous with business, given the wind shear and the energy provided by this powerful low pressure system.
At present, the Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the risk of heavy storms Wednesday in parts of northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. Some storms could generate the threat of hail, strong winds and tornadoes. On Thursday, adverse weather could again blow over parts of the Midwest as the storm heads east.
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