A democratic terrain ready for the big shrink

After the first debates and the two quarters of fundraising, the strategists of the main Democratic campaigns and members of the party begin to rethink the conventional story of the primary of 2020.

The expectation of a large number of candidates when the first states begin to vote and a primary long and long disappeared. Few people are worried about the prospect of a negotiated convention. Instead, campaigns revise their strategic perspectives to account for an area that is being vindicated long before Iowa voters go to caucus – perhaps as many as eight candidates February 3rd.

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From here on Tuesday, some expect it to remain between one and three candidates.

"I've been thinking for a long time that Thanksgiving will go down a lot," said Mike McCauley, a South Carolina-based strategist who worked on the presidential campaigns of Barack Obama and John Kerry. "I did not see anyone make me reconsider that. And if someone stays in Iowa outside of the top six, we are talking about an essay or a cabinet vanity. "

Interviews with more than half a dozen campaigns – none of which would be recorded – and with dozens of other members, party leaders and activists, suggest that the next debate in July will initiate selective sorting. of 23 field candidates. Candidates who fall flat on the stage a second time or who fail to be heard see their finances dry up and be forced to leave. Those who will not participate in the September debate – when the entry criteria will be even higher than the first two debates – will be the next to leave, their campaigns being denied the necessary oxygen to survive.

Others are expected to retire and prepare to be re-elected to their current position after failing to gain ground at the end of the summer.

Representative Eric Swalwell, who is currently languishing at the bottom of the polls, said that if he did not attend in December – the deadline for California to register for Congress – he would abandon his dreams at the White House and would represent in the House.

"Even though there are 12 [candidates still in the race in February] – The reality is that there will not be really twelve in Iowa, "said Jed Ober, deputy director of operations for Hillary Clinton's delegates in 2016, whose colleagues have dispersed to working on the delegates 'strategy for Kamala Harris and Beto O' Rourke in the 2020 primaries. "Max is six or seven, and fundraising boils down to that point."

The pressure on the underperforming candidates for them to withdraw is already making waves. Democratic voters have repeatedly indicated that they are getting tired of this dizzying field: nearly three-quarters of Democratic and independent voters, left-wing, said at a recent Hill-HarrisX Survey that "too many" candidates run for president.

The Iowa poll, conducted last month on behalf of Des Moines, CNN and Mediacom, revealed that 47% of respondents wanted to opt out of several candidates and 27% hoped that most of them would give up their hopes.

The investigation revealed that candidates who were at the bottom of the polls – New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Messar Mayor Wayne Messam of Miramar, Fla. no mention as first or second choice of anyone. Seven other candidates in Iowa Poll were rounded to 0%, while seven others were at 1% in the first critical state.

John Hickenlooper's management team urged him in June to withdraw from the presidential race and to run for a seat in the Colorado Senate or look for other opportunities, reflecting the country's sluggish fundraising drive. former governor and the inability to amend the poll.

The former Maryland representative, John Delaney, who became the first Democrat two years ago to announce an official candidacy for the White House – and spent a lot of time and money campaigning in the United States. Iowa – acknowledged in a recent interview that the presidential field entering the caucus looks like nothing today.

When asked how many candidates he expected to stand on caucus day, Mr. Delaney estimated the number to be "eight to ten" – and he was included among them stating that "there is no one in the world." it would continue to self-finance its offer in the very long term.

Many campaign strategists and party leaders believe the Super Tuesday will be the battlefield of the remaining candidates who will overcome the early states' glove – partly because of the exaggerated role California will play.

Bob Mulholland, a member of the California National Democratic Committee, said that among those who succeed beyond the first four states, most "will never have a delegate".

"No one who is not at the top of the polls can have an impact in 12 or 15 states the same day," Mulholland said. "They're just going to be buried."

In California, candidates must reach a 15% threshold to win delegates at both the state and district levels – which may hurt lesser-known campaigns or difficult finances in a country. State where it is expensive to campaign. California's proportional split should divide the delegates into a very limited number of candidates because there are simply not enough delegates per district for even those who reach the threshold of 15% to earn enough to have the same number of delegates. # 39; importance.

"In South Carolina, we probably have less than six candidates – and after Super Tuesday, there are probably one to three remaining," said Matt Bennett of the Third Way centrist think tank and veteran of the 2004 Wesley Clark campaign.

Despite this, few campaigners are willing to dismiss the slim prospect of a contested convention. They set two key dates to watch whether the party can avoid such a scenario: the super Tuesday and St. Patrick's Day, where two major states will vote – Florida and Illinois.

"When you look at the situation at a very macro level, how the delegate selection rules are written and how the delegates are elected, you have so many different places that you can win delegates, but also as many places. that you can stumble if you do not organize there, "said a leader of the Democratic presidential campaign.

"You must have reach. You must be able to organize. You can not just rely on the fact that you have a name identifier in a state. "

David Siders contributed to this report.