A New Age ‘will be a’ non-event ‘at the box office, analysts say

“The Croods: A New Age,” which hits theaters on Thanksgiving Day, is a rare bright spot for operators who have been forced to show older films for less in recent months.

While some low budget movies debuted this fall, these titles don’t draw the crowds that theaters need to survive. The animated tale of a prehistoric family will be one of the first releases with a budget over $ 50 million since “Tenet” made its domestic debut in September.

Theater owners are optimistic that the Dreamworks movie will draw parents and children to the movies despite the continued rise in coronavirus cases and the threat of further closures. But industry analysts aren’t as optimistic that the family title will be a box office savior.

“The spike in cases suggests to me that only the reckless will go to the theater with their children,” said Michael Pachter, analyst at Wedbush.

The film follows the Croods, a family voiced by Nicholas Cage, Emma Stone, Catherine Keener and Ryan Reynolds, as they search for a safe place to live. The family discovers an enclosed paradise that is already inhabited by another family, the Bettermans.

Tensions intensify between families, but these differences will need to be addressed when a new threat forces them to leave the safety of their new home. Peter Dinklage, Leslie Mann and Kelly Marie Tran round out the voice cast of the Betterman.

“The first movie was cute, but 7 years ago, and doesn’t have the kind of follow-up you need for a sequel to get people to risk their lives,” Pachter said. “I think it will be a non-event in theaters.”

In 2013, “The Croods” raked in $ 43.6 million in its opening weekend in the US and Canada, a number the sequel won’t be close to touching on its first weekend. .

At best, “The Croods: A New Age” could grow to between $ 10 million and $ 15 million in its first five days, said Doug Stone, president of Box Office Analyst, citing discussions with other industry analysts.

However, this figure might be overly optimistic. Universal, which owns Dreamworks Animation, has signed agreements with several movie chains that would allow it to place films on premium video on demand as early as 17 days after a theatrical release.

Stone said families may be reluctant to visit the theaters and choose to hold out until the film is available digitally.

The United States continues to have record coronavirus infections, with the seven-day national average of daily new cases reaching 170,855 on Sunday, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.

“I think ‘Croods’ is the last theatrical release we’ll see this year,” Pachter said. “It’s going to be so bad in two weeks that the governors are going to have to step in.”

Two weeks ago, there were 2,800 theaters open in the United States, which is about 51% of theaters open in the same time last year, according to data from Comscore. This most recent weekend, around 2,100 theaters opened – less than 40% of what was open last year.

“I think the biggest problem affecting the box office right now is that many municipalities are forcing theaters to close due to the growing number of Covid cases,” said Eric Handler, chief executive of the equity media and entertainment research for MKM Partners.

“With the limited number of occupants in theaters, the reduction in show hours, and moviegoers a little confused as to whether the theaters are open or not, it will be difficult for any film to succeed in this. moment, ”he said. “I imagine ‘Croods 2’ does a little better than some other recent releases, but that doesn’t say much.”

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.