Automation is already here. The robots helped build your car and prepare your latest online purchase order. A chatbot can help you determine the balance of your credit card. A computer program can analyze and process your resume when you apply for a job.
What will a decade look like for America in the United States? A team of McKinsey Global Institute economists is set to work in a new report released Thursday.
Research shows that automation widens the gap between urban and rural areas and significantly affects people who do not go to university or do not complete high school. It also predicts that some occupations should experience massive growth or growth sufficient to offset displaced jobs.
Below are some of the key findings of McKinsey's forecast.
Most jobs will change. some will decline.
"Smart machines will become more prevalent in all businesses and all of our jobs will change," said Susan Lund, co-author of the report. According to the researchers, nearly 40% of jobs in the United States occupy jobs that are likely to subside – not necessarily disappear – by 2030.
Employing nearly 21 million Americans, administrative assistance is by far the most common activity in the United States, which is most likely to lose jobs for digital services, according to McKinsey. Food services is another highly affected category, with hotels, fast foods and other kitchens automating the work of cooks, dishwashers and others.
At the same time, "the economy is creating jobs through new technologies," McKinsey economists wrote. These jobs include software developers and information security specialists – who are constantly missing – but also solar panel installers and wind turbine technicians.
Jobs in the health care sector – including hearing care professionals and home helpers – will remain in high demand over the next decade as baby boomers age. McKinsey also anticipates growth in jobs that involve human creativity or "socio-emotional skills" or that offer personalized service to the rich, such as interior decorators, psychologists, massage therapists, dieticians, and landscape architects.
In some occupations, even if jobs disappear, new jobs could offset losses. For example, PDAs may replace counter attendants and hiring staff, but additional staff may be required to assist customers in the store. or staff distribution centers, wrote the McKinsey economists.
Similarly, enough new jobs will be created in transportation or customer service and sales to offset lost jobs. from here 2030.
Employers and communities could do more to involve workers in declining fields in other jobs that are compatible with a lower risk of automation. For example, 900,000 accountants, accountants and bookkeepers in the country could see their jobs phased out, but could be retrained to become loan officers, adjusters or insurance underwriters, according to the McKinsey report.
Automation will probably continue to widen the gap between employment growth in urban and rural areas.
By 2030, the majority of employment growth could be concentrated in just 25 megacities and their peripheries, while large areas of the country are seeing job creation slow down and even lose jobs , discovered the researchers. That gap has already widened over the last decade, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
The 25 megacities (including Chicago, Miami and Austin) and their suburbs (such as Arlington, Virginia, and Riverside, California) are expected to account for over 60% of net job growth, while representing only 44% of the population.
Here are other notable examples with notable growth in employment:
- small fast-growing cities like Provo (Utah) and Des Moines (Iowa);
- University cities, such as Chapel Hill, N.C., and South Bend, Ind .;
- rural communities with booming tourism or the oil, mining and other industries, such as Aspen, Colorado, or Kauai County, Hawaii;
- and aging communities that are attracting jobs in the health and other care sector, such as The Villages in Florida or Prescott, Arizona.
Some jobs – such as transportation or food services – could face increased demand in growing cities and rich and aging cities, while at the same time decreasing in areas with poorer and declining populations.
But Americans do not move as much as before. The proportion of Americans who moved to a different state was halved between 1990 and 2017, according to the McKinsey report. And when people move, they move into an area with a very similar profile, which means job growth and similar opportunities.
"If it is assumed that people will simply leave troubled regions to settle in more prosperous cities, this will mean a reversal of the current status quo," the economists wrote. They suggest that government and business could redouble efforts to reinvigorate declining areas, for example by opening offices in more affordable locations and improving broadband access for more distant work opportunities. .
Men could face a little more displacement than women. People without higher education are considerably more at risk.
About two-thirds of American workers do not have a university degree, which puts them at greater risk of losing their jobs due to new technologies. The researchers found that workers who did not attend university or did not complete high school risk four times more of losing their jobs due to automation.
"Automation could widen existing disparities in education, income and wealth," economists wrote.
Hispanic workers are particularly affected by this situation, faced with higher drop-out rates. According to the report, more than a quarter of Hispanic workers are also employed in jobs that can be automated.
Growth jobs that do not require a bachelor's degree include construction managers, elevator installers and repairers, cost estimators, MRI technicians and radiologists. The report called for a better system of training and lifelong learning for American workers.
Currently, women are working in more jobs in areas of growth, such as registered nurses and personal care assistants. This will probably position them better for a more automated future, potentially representing 58% of net employment growth by 2030. This assumes that the current gender distribution remains the same across all occupations.
Men dominate some of the most automatable jobs, such as mechanical repair and machine operations. At the same time, they also dominate high-growth technology jobs. And women represent a disproportionate share of the increasingly smaller tasks of office workers and administrative assistants.
"Automation and artificial intelligence have tremendous potential for boosting innovation and productivity, but these technologies require an adaptable workforce with new skills," the company said. co-author James Manyika in a statement. "We can turn this into an opportunity to improve jobs, make them more rewarding and raise the workforce."