A third-party candidate will only help Trump if the Democrats nominate another non-eligible candidate

reDespite ample evidence that Gary Johnson, the presidential candidate of the Libertarian Party who garnered 3% of the popular vote in 2016, has garnered more votes against President Trump than Hillary Clinton, Neera Tanden still has badly to convince actress Susan Sarandon to support Jill Stein, the Green Party also ran.

Despite the fact that the entirety of Stein's voting share would still not have won Clinton at the White House, the unbridled left-handers continued to ponder their nightmarish scenario: a serious contender to an emerging third party in 2020 to give Trump a second mandate.

Nichols is not really wrong, but unless Democratic Leader Joe Biden fails to maintain his persistent and compelling lead, it's hard to see how he's right.

In 2016, voters were asked to choose between a billionaire accused of sexual assault by several women and a corrupt politician who protected her husband from credible allegations of sexual assault by several women. Hillary Clinton has always been a fairly conservative democrat, and Donald Trump, a fairly liberal Republican, after being a Democrat. Voters had no confidence in any of them, resulting in an essentially non-ideological choice between two liars with a similar policy and equally malevolent personal conduct.

The next race could present voters with a very different choice. If Biden wins the nomination, the revolt against the Republicans in the suburbs of 2018 could happen again. Biden's policy is not much different than Hillary's, but on a personal level, most Americans like and trust her. Even if a certain coalition of disgruntled Republicans only marginally prefer Biden to Trump, it's hard to imagine those in Ohio risking a victory for Trump by voting for a hypothetical third-party candidate instead of Biden himself.

No convincing candidate has declared third-party bids so far, but the calculation is simple, regardless of the successful candidate: A third-party bid hurts the most extreme party that's showing up. extreme extreme. Trump's current policies may have been far more classic and successful than voters imagined in 2016, but his rhetoric and his thoughts on Twitter described his presidency as clearly partisan and polarizing.

A contrast with Biden would emphasize this flaw on the part of Trump. The other Democratic leaders would oppose Trump mainly by their political extremism.

Ask a small business owner from the suburbs of Orlando to exchange new tax cuts against a return to Obama's era policies with an affable and well-known amount at home. Blanche is reasonable. Tell them to trade Trump's Twitter collapses against the abolition of the private health insurance market and wealth taxes or estates to fund free education is another matter. Democrats are sufficiently repugnant to Trump for any nominated candidate to get the vote from the left, but if the candidate is too extreme, this crucial vote, never from Trump, will instead go to a third party candidate.

Unless a candidate already having a staggering reputation, like Michael Bloomberg or Michelle Obama, or a clearly defined constituency, like Justin Amash, runs for office, it is unlikely that the candidates who will gain ground will win anyway. much more. The ephemeral "libertarian moment" of 2016 has proven to be a failure, and it is unclear who is willing to wade through the waters until the Democratic primary is decided. Whatever the case may be, Democrats must remember that a third party challenger threatens their luck only if they elect the ineligible.