A wave of retirements threatens the return to 2020

A wave of retirements from the House of Representatives of Britain, which has accelerated during the August parliamentary recess, creates new headaches for party leaders and suggests that Republicans have little chances of reclaiming the Senate in 2020.

So far, 15 Republicans have announced during this cycle their retirement, resignation or candidacy to other offices, including eight since the start of the summer holidays, late July.

A handful of those leaving, like Rep. Will HurdWilliam Ballard HurdTexas Republicans are sounding the alarm on the rapidly changing state Legislators celebrate the birthday of Martin Luther King President's Speech: "I have a dream "The Hill & # 39; s Morning Report: Trump Congratulates NRA on Reducing Taxes on Weapons and Eyes MORE (R-Texas), should have faced difficult re-elections in competitive districts.

But the vast majority occupy safe and conservative seats – a sign that these legislators may be tired of Trump's chaotic period and no longer wish to wander the political desert for two years or more after the loss of their assembly in 2018.

"The most likely outcome is a status quo vote for the House. And that certainly influences people's decision [to retire]if they think they can regain the majority or not, "said the former representative. Carlos CurbeloCarlos Luis Curbelo: Republicans undergo whiplash by Irregular Trump Week Energy: Warren Passes Sanders in Poll with Climate-Centered Voters | Carbon tax shows new signs of life | Greens overwhelmed by Trump plan to develop Bears Ears monument Carbon tax shows new signs of Congress life MORE (R-Fla.), One of two dozen Republicans swept from office during the anti-Trump election that gave Democrats control of the House last fall.

"Of course, some of those members who have retired, [staying in the minority] was a factor in their thinking. "

Former representative Tom Davis (R-Va.) Said the notion of staying in the minority was one of the factors behind the government's retirement wave, but it is not the only one.

The base of the GOP has changed, he said, creating new centers of power that force the once-comfortable legislators to "jostle a bit".

He also drew attention to the simple issue of finances, considering that members of Congress had not seen any salary increase for more than ten years.

But perhaps the most important factor, Davis said, is the "change in electoral patterns" provoked by the rise of the populist movement that propelled Trump to the White House – an environment that is hardly unique to the United States. United.

"The general atmosphere in Washington is not very pleasant," said Davis, who previously headed the House GOP campaign arm. "It's a global phenomenon caused by the speed of change, the instantaneous communications, the growing expectations of those who are unhappy with change, who do not see [government] help fast enough and feel their status threatened. "

Whatever the cause, the number of retirements accumulates quickly.

This week, GOP Reps. Bill FloresWilliam (Bill) Hose FloresThe Hill & # 39; s 12:30 Report: Dorian Attacks The Florida Coast The Flores Representative Is The Last Texas Republican To Retire The Conservatives Ask Pelosi To Cancel The Judicial Vacation from august MORE (Texas) and Jim SensenbrennerFrank (Jim) James SensenbrennerThe Morning's Morning – The wall problem that confronts Dems and the latest news from the Dorian Republican, Jim Sensenbrenner, announces that he will not seek re-election. Live coverage: Mueller testifies before the Congress. MORE (Wis.) Said they would not request another term in 2020.

They joined six other Republicans to announce during the summer break their retirement or resignation: Reps. Hurd, Kenny MarchantKenny Ewell MarchantTexas: Republicans are worried about the rapid evolution of the state Conservatives in the House of Representatives call for an investigation into the ethics of Joaquin Castro tweet Texas is facing a tumultuous political moment MORE (Texas), Sean DuffySean DuffyThe Morning's Morning – The wall problem that confronts Dems and the latest news from Dorian's The Hill's Morning – is this a turning point in the 2020 presidential primary? GOP Rep. Sean Duffy resigning from Congress PLUS (Wis.) And John ShimkusJohn Mondy ShimkusIllinois Rep. Shimkus will not be running for reelection of Illinois House Republicans are asking Trump not to commute the sentence handed down against Blagojevich During the night Energy: the fight for fuel standards intensifies | Democrats urge Trump officials to go back | A California official blames the EPA chief for broken talks | Former EPA official says Wheeler lied to Congress (Ill.), As well as the former Chairman of the Board of Natural Resources Rob BishopRobert (Rob) William BishopPerso Rico, the new leaders have the power to put the island on the path to a new law. The rules of the new Endangered Species Act clarify and improve the health of species. Republicans and Democrat Democrats in the House Are Not Seeking Re-election in 2020 MORE (Utah) and former president of agriculture Mike ConawayKenneth (Mike) Michael ConawayTexas faces a tumultuous political moment Democratic Party official: Texas is "the biggest state in the country fighting" Another Texas congressman is planning to retire MORE (Texas).

The Democrats mocked the five retreats of the GOP of the state of Lone Star under the name "Texodus".

In total, 15 Republicans have already announced their intention to give up their seats, against four Democrats. And as the list of retirees has increased this summer, GOP lawmakers and collaborators are worried about who might be next.

Among the names circulating around Washington are reputable Republicans like Reps. Fred UptonFrederick (Fred) Stephen UptonInnovation in the service of climate through innovative politics The 9 House Republicans in favor of background checks, Al Green says that the impeachment is the "only solution" to the rhetoric of Trump. MORE (Michigan.), Steve ChabotSteven (Steve) Joseph ChabotThe Republican congressman hopes the Trump crowd will avoid "sending her away" at the Ohio rally. Mueller refuses to answer dozens of questions from lawmakers. (Ohio), Mac ThornberryWilliam (Mac) McClellan ThornberryOpening the Night: GOP Grumbles After Trump Delays Military Projects for the Wall | House of Representatives panel suggests subpoena for Afghanistan envoy | Kabul bombing raises doubts over Taliban talks Republicans scold Trump for transferring military funds to wall Legislators split on funding for delayed projects | Iran frees the crew members of the seized vessel PLUS (Texas) and Greg WaldenGregory (Greg) Paul Walden Pushing the "surprising" medical bills to new obstacles Innovation in the service of the climate thanks to an innovative policy Is there a life on the Internet after thirty years? MORE (Ore.) – all former committee chairs – as well as core members such as representatives. Adam KinzingerAdam Daniel KinzingerHouse: Democrats Target Six More Trump Districts By 2020 The Assault Weapons Ban Is Growing In The House Of Congress Democrats Target Holders the GOP 2020 in the new ad PLUS (Ill.) And Ken BuckKenneth (Ken) Robert BuckWith an agreement on the budget, Congress can no longer control its spending. The memo: Mueller's difficulties divert attention from the substance Trump takes it to a NBC reporter who asks him if he fears to be indicted after leaving his office functions. MORE (Colo.).

"The retirements are confusing," said Bill Miller, a GOP lobbyist and Austin-based consultant. "The reality is that life in the minority is just not so attractive, but at the same time, in some cases, the decision to no longer show up is a bit threatened by the loss."

Democrats hardly escape the trend and retirements do not necessarily mean a loss of seats.

In the run-up to the 2012 elections, party roles were reversed: the Democrats had the White House, but the Republicans held the president's hammer and all the signs indicated that they were keeping it.

During this cycle, twenty-two Democrats withdrew or sought another position, but the Republicans won only five seats, and GOP members hope to have the same success next year defending the naked places .

"People read a lot too much in these [retirements]Said Corbin Casteel, longtime GOP strategist in Austin. "We had members who retired before and who occupied the seats. This is not meant to be a lifetime job. "

There is some disagreement about President TrumpDonald John TrumpPompeo insists on the possibility of a Kansas-run media Senate The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump tackles the projection of Hurricane Dorian Trump's mental decline is perfectly clear for those who have eyes to see and ears MOREThe role played by the wave of retirements.

In private, Republicans often complain about having to react to the last presidential tweet, the scandal or the last attack of the legislator in place. And outside observers say the chaos around the White House is probably contributing to the departures.

"I do not think the Republicans are considering overthrowing the House in the near future and being part of the minority is not fun," said Julian Zelizer, Congress History Expert at the University of New York. Princeton. "Some are also fed up with having to defend the party, not just in the Trump era, but in the Tea Party era. So the incentives go up to do something else. "

Curbelo, who represented a very popular Hispanic neighborhood in the Miami area, said Trump had played a specific role in his defeat in the Democratic Party. Debbie Mucarsel-PowellDebbie Mucarsel-Powell: The alternative-seat Democrats oppose the impeachment, giving Pelosi the support of the second Democrat representing Trump District in favor of impeachment. The Democrats of the House who voted in favor of the abolition of the dismissal MORE last year. And the controversial president, who consumes everything, is perhaps why some of his former colleagues decided to leave him.

"Trump is a big part of it. Something that Trump did is to prevent Republicans from having their own identity. You are therefore asked to compete every two years. Your record and your work have little to do with how people will vote. It has also frustrated many members, "Curbelo told The Hill on Friday.

"My job, my balance sheet was not really a relevant factor in 2018."

Yet, a number of Republicans observing the issues insist that the president was not a factor in their decision.

Flores, a former leader of an oil company elected during the 2010 Tea Party election wave, said he had never intended to make a career in Washington. And with his parents now in his 80s and a recently married son, Flores said his "family situation" was a good time to leave Congress.

"I am optimistic about the opportunities of [the GOP] in 2020, "Flores said in a telephone interview on Friday. "When you reduce all this noise, you raise some key issues: are people better off than they were four years ago? Most people would say yes. And do we want to become socialists? Most people would say no.

Nevertheless, the departures mark a new challenge for the GOP leaders and campaigners, who are fighting to overthrow the chamber, but face a growing battlefield as their mandate narrows.

The Democrats' campaign branch is pleased with the trend, with 19 Republicans on its watch list of retirees.

Former representative Dennis RossDennis Alan RossIsrael Should Resist Trump's Efforts to Politicize the Support of the Suddenly Shutting Pro-Saudi Think Tank in Washington The Hill & # 39; s Morning – Presented by JUUL Labs – The Trump Attack on Progressive Dems Raises a strong reprimand MORE (R-Fla.), A prominent member of the GOP whip team who retired last cycle, said that another factor in the retirement wave is the grueling campaign necessary to recover the majority.

GOP leaders urge their members to raise funds for the operation of the House GOP campaign and to attract candidates across the country, allowing them to spend more time outside the country.

"It takes a lot of work to get back to the majority," Ross told The Hill. "If they can not be all that the team wants them to be, then they start thinking that it may be time for someone to get out there." other do it.

"It's not bad for the process of recruiting new people and new ideas."

– Jonathan Easley contributed from Austin, Texas.