Scientists have discovered that Europe and North America could experience more violent storms due to global warming.
Extreme weather conditions such as floods will become up to three times more frequent on continents due to extratropical cyclones, according to research.
They predict that by the end of the 21st century, the world could be shaken by the social and economic turbulence caused by bad weather.
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Extreme weather conditions such as floods will become up to three times more common on continents due to extratropical cyclones, according to new research (stock)
Dr. Matt Hawcroft's research from Exeter University has revealed new and detailed information on projections of cyclone frequency.
Research shows that, unless there is a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, their frequency will dramatically increase over large areas of the northern hemisphere.
He says the impact on local communities disrupted by future cyclones could be severe, with intense and extreme storms leading to more floods.
Dr. Hawcroft, a researcher in the Exeter Department of Mathematics, said, "Extreme precipitation is expected to increase in intensity and frequency in a warmer climate.
"In this work, we attributed these changes to the events that caused much of our large-scale rainfall and flooding.
"This additional information, on the dynamic nature of the changes, is important because it provides clear information on the nature and impact of precipitation changes that can be used, for example, in policy and planning. planning for adaptation. "
Critical information for those trying to predict and mitigate the effects of extreme weather is the ability to predict where and how often these storms may occur in the future.
Current climate models are subject to great uncertainties that challenge the reliability of their data.
Scientists have said that by the end of the 21st century, the world could be shaken by the social and economic turmoil caused by the storms caused by extratropical cyclones. They are guided by the jet stream and play a key role in the weather in many parts of North America and Europe (stock)
WHAT IS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE?
Extratropical cyclones are driven by the jet stream and play a key role in daily weather variability in large parts of North America and Europe.
They are characterized by areas of low atmospheric pressure at the center of the storm, cyclonic air sucked (counterclockwise) around the low pressure.
This leads to warm southern air and cold north air.
At the junction of cold air and warm air, fronts form that can cause heavy rains.
The most extreme storms are responsible for large-scale floods in North America and Europe.
Researchers analyzed the behavior of current and future storms using advanced storm modeling and monitoring techniques.
The team was able to show that, according to the models, the number of extratropical cyclones causing the most precipitation would have increased three-fold by the end of the century.
Hawcroft added, "Due to the complexity of the circulation's response to global warming, regional patterns of climate change are highly uncertain.
"Given this uncertainty, it is important to be able to get clear information when it is available.
"Here, we show that, despite these complexities, we are still able to provide broad and consistent projections of change at these very important events."
The research is published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.