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(Angel Garcia / Bloomberg News)
And what if, suddenly, decades of progress in weather forecasting were reversed and the monster storms we see now over several days were more predictable? The consequences on life, property and the economy would be enormous. However, government science agencies claim that such a loss of accuracy in forecasts could occur if the Federal Communications Commission and the US wireless sector were doing well.
Both the FCC and the wireless industry are striving to deploy 5G technology, which will provide information 100 times faster than today's mobile networks. But scientists have discovered that this technology could interfere with critical satellite data used in weather forecasts, setting the interests of science and security against an urgent national priority.
The FCC and government science agencies, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA, fought on this issue for several years.
Both parties agree that US advancement and leadership in 5G are essential, but discussions regarding the impact that technology could have on meteorological data and the acceptable level of interference are broken.
Last week, Neil Jacobs, acting head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told Congress that interference from 5G could reduce the accuracy of weather forecasts to 40 years.
Yet Tuesday, CTIA, the professional group representing the US wireless communications industry, has launched a scathing retort to the assertion of Jacobs' claim.
"It's an absurd statement with no scientific basis," Brad Gillen, executive vice president of CTIA, wrote in a blog post.
Gillen maintained that NOAA's claim was based on the study of a "never-used" microwave sensor (this study, a collaborative effort between NOAA, NASA and the FCC, still in deliberation, are not public, CTIA said in an email that it has reviewed a draft that was posted on the NASA website but has since been removed.)
The sensor, which has never been used, had to fly on satellites that were part of a government program (called NPOESS) dissolved in 2010.
"[W]We risk the leaders of 5G to protect government systems that have been put on the back burner, "wrote Gillen.
Jordan Gerth, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, described the CTIA blog's message as "misleading" and "misinformed". He noted that the canceled sensor had been replaced by a similar sensor currently embarked on two NOAA satellites, while international agencies such instruments.
Gerth wrote in an email that these microwave sensors transmit important water vapor data at a frequency of 23.8 gigahertz, where they are potentially vulnerable to interference. In March, the FCC auctioned spectrum for wireless transmission in the adjacent 24 GHz band.
The proximity of the two bands could expose water vapor data to out-of-band emissions as unreliable. Gerth said "it is indisputable" that these data on water vapor are needed for weather forecast models "to produce the most accurate forecasts".
(AMS Weather)
In an email, CTIA replied that the latest sensors are "much less susceptible to interference" than the sensor evaluated in the study.
However, in his testimony before the House of Commons Science Committee on May 16, Jacobs told members of Congress that interference could result in a 30 percent reduction in forecast accuracy. "If you go back in time to see when our forecasts were about 30% lower than what they are today, that is around 1980," he said.
With this reduced forecasting skill, the European model Jacobs would not have expected the hurricane Sandy of 2012 to reach the northeast coast several days in advance. Instead, the model would have led the storm into the sea. The main team responsible for preparing for the storm would have been cut short.
Jacobs added that if the loss of data due to jamming even reached 2%, NOAA should probably "stop working" on its $ 11 billion program of satellites in polar orbit, important for the weather forecast, but also for the climate monitoring and many other applications.
Gillen wrote that NOAA's forecast of 5G interference "is wrong in substance, fact, and process," but NASA and the Department of Defense support NOAA's findings and expressed their concerns as to their potential consequences.
"[T]The assessments done by NASA in collaboration with NOAA revealed that there was a very high probability that we were losing a lot of data, "said NASA's Jim Bridenstine, a board member of the House Science Committee. .
In March, the Navy wrote a note stating that data interference would lead to "likely degradation of weather and ocean patterns", resulting in "increased risk of … degradation of space awareness" Battle for a Tactical / Operational Advantage ".
The considerable implications of data loss and the effects on forecasts have drawn the attention of Republicans and Democrats in Congress.
"NASA took us to the moon, and NOAA helped us explore the depths of the ocean," said Senator Maria Cantwell (D – Wash.) In a statement to the Washington Post. "We are relying on these agencies for their scientific expertise and they have warned us of the disastrous impact of this sale of spectrum on weather forecasting capabilities – we should listen."
The comments of the representative Frank D. Lucas (R-Okla.), The most Republican of the scientific committee of the House, marked a similar agreement.
"There is only one frequency that we can use to observe the water vapor in the atmosphere and the auctioning of nearby frequencies could adversely affect our forecasts," he said. Heather Vaughan, Lucas spokesperson. "We support all the faster and more reliable connections we will get from 5G, but we need to deploy them in a way that does not diminish critical weather forecasts."
A large meeting of global spectrum regulators is scheduled for this fall, during which out-of-band emissions limits will be negotiated. The State Department is currently trying to establish a consensual position between NOAA and NASA in the United States and the FCC on the other. Everything indicates that the sides remain distant.
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