[ad_1]
Jimmy Garoppolo ranks fifth for on-screen success rate, sixth for game action rate and seventh for the percentage of his passes that travel more than 10 yards in the air.
Translation: The 49ers are doing everything in the book to hide their quarterback. He’s the only quarterback who doesn’t attempt a single “big throw,” according to Pro Football Focus.
I said this before week 3 and it’s worth repeating. They’re not going to beat good teams with Garoppolo playing such cookie-cutter football.
It didn’t work against Green Bay and of course when he tried to play outside himself Garoppolo made mistakes. It’s just who he is.
Maybe Trey Lance isn’t ready. It’s up to Kyle Shanahan to decide. However, the watch should be officially turned on. The 49ers rank 28th in allowed 4for4 timing-adjusted fantasy points. Injuries in high school continue to increase. It seems doubtful that Josh Norman’s late arrival will even be suitable for Week 4. It’s unsettling given that the Seattle Seahawks are on the agenda.
This game has one over / under 51.5 points, per BetMGM. This game is expected to turn into a shootout. Seattle’s offense can get stuck in those situations where Russell Wilson is firing on all cylinders. San Francisco has the receivers to do it, but they need their quarterback to open their game. The Seahawks ‘defense certainly has enough holes for Garoppolo to exploit them with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk (plus George Kittle, s’ He is healthy).
The question at the moment is whether Garoppolo can hold its end of the bargain. If he makes another misfire in week 4, the screams for Trey Lance will become deafening.
Skeptics will point to the historically terrible beginning of this year’s Rookie Class as the reason to keep Lance in the incubator. That’s a good point, especially considering Lance’s lack of academic reps. However, Lance is easily and arguably in the best position among those first-round quarterbacks.
Think Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson wouldn’t like an offensive line like the 49ers? Mac Jones wouldn’t instantly hook up with a Samuel or an Aiyuk? What would Justin Fields sacrifice to work alongside Shanahan as a caller rather than go through the hell Matt Nagy threw him into last week?
No one knows if Lance will instantly improve this offense the moment he takes the pitch. It’s unclear if he would unlock the advantage of guys like Aiyuk and Kittle, who suffered for three weeks under Garoppolo. However, if the 49ers lose to the Seahawks and suddenly face a slippery slope of delay in an ultra-stacked NFC West, the allure of the unknown will be all the more tempting.
Patriots offensive line ranks 27th in adjusted yards
As I mentioned in my DFS one-game preview, the Patriots are in the midst of an identity crisis. The team seems to want to exist somewhere between being a team of bullies and the RPO-heavy, tempo-driven offense that Mac Jones fits in best.
The biggest problem with a power team is that the offensive line falls short. Trent Brown has been on the right tackle and a handful of others are struggling. They rank 18th in ground DVOA.
[So many reasons to play Yahoo DFS: Learn more now and get in on the fun]
Of course, they won’t be able to set the race against Tampa Bay anyway. So hopefully we’ll see some other concepts of quick hitting and heavy passing that lend themselves more to Jones’ strength.
Bucs lead NFL to neutral success rate situation
Outside of a legendary “Bill Belichick game-planning” advantage, it’s hard to see how the Patriots have a chance to slow down the Bucs’ passing offense. Not only do they throw aggressively, but they are efficient. Tampa Bay ranks sixth in passing DVOA.
The fact that they can throw so many passing waves at you just can’t be overstated. With Antonio Brown returning this week, the battle station will be fully operational.
Even when Tampa plays in positive play scripts, they lead the NFL with a 67% success rate. They don’t even pretend to want to run the ball. Translation: Even if / when Tom Brady and co. take the advantage over his old team, expect the passes to keep stealing. And not just for the revenge story, but because that’s when the Bucs are at their best.
Matthew Stafford leads all quarters with a 150.5 passer rating in playing action
During his Lions days, Stafford was never an action-packed quarterback. Terribly, that sounds like a bad decision from Detroit.
Sean McVay’s offense has long boosted Jared Goff due to the heavy use of play and movement. Now those perks go to an obviously more talented quarterback. This turns the Rams into one of, if not the best, offensive ecosystems throughout the league. This was leaked in the absurd production of Cooper Kupp, but expect it to continue to trickle down to ancillary threats like Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson.
And yes, we can expect Robert Woods to take advantage of it very soon.
Jalen Hurts has the second highest screen pass rate in the NFL
Hurts thrived on these games with a 117.7 passer rating on screen throws and a 90.6 rating on all others.
Nobody cares how Hurts does it for the sake of fantasy. His rushing ability and a few designer passes are all you need to hit the QB1 threshold. On the other hand, we need to see more Hurts as a pure passer. Otherwise, it’s going to cause weekly volatility from guys like DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. The former will still see enough air yard volume to make it happen most weeks, but the latter doesn’t have much room for error now that he is almost splitting his time with Zach Ertz.
Lamar Jackson leads all QBs with 29% of his passes going over 15 aerial sites
Lamar Jackson is having a blast this year. It also has a completion rate nearly three percent higher than expected. He also doesn’t do that with Gimme passes.
For this reason, I remain quite optimistic about Rashod Bateman. Yes, it was a recruit who was only activated off IR. Missing all that time is not ideal. But it kind of reminds me of Odell Beckham Jr.’s return in Week 5 of his rookie season after a lengthy injury layoff. The absence didn’t matter; it had an instant impact.
Beckham did this because he was a professional level technician and road racer at LSU. This is who Bateman was in college. Obviously, Bateman won’t be posting Beckham’s rookie year stats in the Baltimore offense. His ability to create a sensation and be the alpha receptor of an ascendant Lamar Jackson desperately necessary, however, should not be ruled out.
Cleveland is in the DVOA Top 5
-
1st in the sprint
-
10th by the way
Speaking of Odell Beckham: My thesis on the star catcher was that the Browns needed him to be the last layer of seasoning on an already delicious attacking dish. Cleveland has shown they can be a strong offense without him. I’m still not convinced that a hint of Beckham’s ability on top of that wouldn’t take them to another level.
Beckham looked like this guy on his Week 3 debut and the Browns used him like that. Beckham ranks third in “weighted opportunities” per game so far. For context, this usage places it between Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp. Not bad company. Even better than his deployment, I thought he looked like the same explosive old Beckham. It’s a WR2 fantasy at worst for the rest of the way.
Only 16.2% of Matt Ryan’s passes have traveled more than 10 aerial work sites
Ryan and Andy Dalton are the only starters south of 20 percent. You don’t want to be in Andy Dalton’s company as a vertical passer at this point.
Meanwhile, the Falcons’ Week 4 opponent Washington. is tied with Detroit for the most number of authorized aerial work completions.
Much like Washington’s Week 3 game with the Bills: something has to give way here. Will Washington’s defense return to the form we expected heading into the season, or will it finally give the Falcons the big game we’ve been dreaming of?
There is no doubt that the Falcons offense raises legitimate and serious concerns. They’ve got that game and the Week 5 date with the Jets to show something. If they don’t, only then will I be fully concerned for Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts.
There are 15 WRs who have seen more than 28 targets this season. The following are not among the current Top 25 Fantastic Scores:
-
Stefon Diggs
-
Cole beasley
-
Chase claypool
-
Calvin ridley
-
Jakobi Meyers
-
Michael pittman
Speaking of Ridley, he’s one of that cohort of receivers that we can hope will progress in the scoring department based on their volume. For the majority …
Claypool is the only one I’m not very optimistic about. Once Diontae Johnson returns, the volume will drop. I don’t want to bet on Ben Roethlisberger’s third option, especially when this guy is a vertical threat.
Like, give me a break:
Diggs is an easy buy, but Pittman is in this lineup as well. He’s clearly Indy’s alpha. Even though the whole Carson Wentz experience seems already cast, it does count for something if you’re looking for a WR3.
One prediction: Jakobi Meyers gets his first career touchdown this week. He is sure too extreme of a landing drought so that it lasts much longer. He’s already getting all the targets and is the obvious threat at close range to soak up some of James White’s vacant volume. The Bucs are in such bad shape at the cornerback position, they just signed Richard Sherman.
Top-5 in yards after rush contact (pre-TNF)
-
Kareem Hunting
-
Peyton barber
-
Nick chubb
-
James robinson
-
Derrick Henri
Oddly enough, the fact that Barber is playing so well for the Raiders has made me optimistic about Josh Jacobs when he’s in good health. I was on Jacobs this year because I assumed the Raiders had signed Kenyan Drake into the peloton with him. Using Barber in Weeks 2 and 3 confirms that they Actually gave Drake $ 11 million to be a gadget player. Jacobs would therefore have to assume the duties of return upon his return. If it’s this week, he’s going to get a running defense against the Chargers Monday night that was perfectly workable (24th in fancy points adjusted to the 4for4 schedule allowed at running backs).
Listen to the Yahoo Fantasy Football predictions
[ad_2]
Source link