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We expect China's real GDP growth to slow in the second quarter after remaining stable in the last three quarters - We expect real GDP growth to slow to 6.7% yoy annual High frequency data (growth in coal consumption from six power plants and crude steel production) and the official June and Caixin PMIs weaker than expected are expected to increase by 6.8% in the first quarter. conviction from our point of view of the slowdown
We expect a still moderate industrial production growth of 6.6% yoy in June.
- Deleveraging over the past year is expected to continue to weigh on investment, and we expect capital investment growth to slow to 5.9% year-over-year.
Growth in retail sales could rebound moderately to 8.8% year-on-year in June, compared to 8.5% in May, lower than expected, partly because of price factors.
y / y
- expected 6.7%, before 6.8%
- for q / q (its) expected 1.6%, before 1.4%
- YTD y / y expected 6.7%, before 6.8%
China at the same time, the data of activity
for June
- Retail sales y / w expected 8.8%, before 8.5%
- YTD retail sales y / y expected 9.4%, ahead of 9.5%
- Industrial production expected 6 , 5%, before 6.8% [19659011] Industrial production YTD y / y planned 6.8%, before 6.9%
- Capital badets excl.
rural YTD y / y expected 6.0%, before 6.1%
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