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The 2020 battle for the Senate is not yet over, with the Republican House majority still on the line in the January 5 twin Senate elections in Georgia.
But regardless, the first moves of the 2022 Senate races are already underway, with Republicans facing a tough card for a second straight cycle.
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The new Chairman of the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC), Sen. Rick Scott, of Florida, recognizes the dangers he faces over the next two years, but optimistically tells Fox News, “I think we have a good opportunity not only to defend, but also to resume.
Democrats had high expectations heading into the 2020 cycle, with the GOP defending 23 of the 35 seats up for grabs. The Democratic challengers dramatically overestimated the Republican incumbents, but their hopes of a Blue Wave and a solid House majority never came true. At best, Democrats will have a 50/50 Senate with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris as the deciding vote if they win the two GOP seats held in Georgia’s second round. Republicans – at best – will hold a 52-48 majority, one seat less than the 53-47 margin they held before the 2020 contests.
Similar to this cycle, Republicans will restart defense in the 2022 clashes.
Senator Rick Scott, R-Fla., Speaks during a campaign rally for Republican candidates for U.S. Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue on Friday, November 13, 2020 in Cumming, Ga. (AP Photo / Brynn Anderson)
As it stands, the GOP will defend at least 20 of the 34 seats up for grabs in two years. But if the nominated Georgia Senator Kelly Loeffler – a Republican who is running for the last two years of former Senator Johnny Isakson’s term – wins the run-off election, the math would change slightly to 21 Republicans and 13 Democrats. seats at stake midway through 2022.
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The tough map isn’t the only hurdle Republicans face. They are also defending open sieges in two crucial battlefield states due to retirements. The senses. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Richard Burr of North Carolina are not running for re-election.
There is also a potential headache in Iowa, where 87-year-old GOP Senator Chuck Grassley remains silent so far on whether he will run for an eighth six-year term. years in the Senate.
Democrats will shoot hard for Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin in a state President-elect Joe Biden narrowly went from red to blue in this month’s presidential election. Johnson, a staunch supporter of President Trump, has yet to say whether he will stand for re-election for a third term. Regardless, Democrat Tom Nelson, a county executive and former majority leader in the state assembly, has already announced his candidacy.
And GOP Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who has indicated he will be running for a third term, could also face a potentially difficult re-election in the country’s largest traditional battlefield.
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While the card looks favorable to Democrats again in 2022, Biden will be in the White House, and the president’s party normally loses seats in Congress in their first midterm election.
“The president’s party generally loses seats,” noted Jessica Taylor, who covers and analyzes Senate races for the Cook Report, a prominent non-partisan political handicap. But she suggested that “it could be toned down somewhat like an overall favorable card for Democrats.”
Scott, who takes over the Senate GOP’s reelection arm in January, acknowledged that “I have to recruit someone in Pennsylvania, and someone in North Carolina, for Richard Burr and Pat Toomey, so it will be hard. job.”
But he also pointed out pickup possibilities in Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire. First-term Senator Catherine Cortez Mastro is vying for re-election in Nevada, which remains a key swing state. Biden narrowly beat Trump in Nevada this month after Trump was lightly ousted in the state four years ago by Hillary Clinton.
In Arizona, Republicans will target Democrat Mark Kelly, who will serve the last two years of the late Sen. John McCain’s term after winning this month’s special election. And Republicans also view Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire as potentially vulnerable, especially if popular GOP Governor Chris Sununu decides to run for the Senate in 2022.
Regarding Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire, Scott told Fox News that “these are clearly areas that we are fortunate to discover.”
But an optimistic Scott considered the possibility of a larger card.
“If you take states like Illinois and Connecticut, they’re really in shock and angry with their government,” he said. “We have a chance across the country if we have good candidates and we raise our funds and we run good campaigns.
GOP incumbents were significantly overwhelmed and overwhelmed by their Democratic challengers for much of the 2020 cycle until a late infusion of cash helped them boost them in the final weeks leading up to the election.
The President is a well-known Republican whom Scott may seek to help raise funds on behalf of Senators and GOP candidates in the 2022 cycle.
“He’s been a prolific fundraiser,” Scott said of Trump, who has strongly indicated that he will remain heavily involved in GOP politics after he leaves the White House in January. Trump earlier this month put in place a leadership PAC, which will allow him to raise and spend money on behalf of other Republicans. It is already quickly filling the coffers of the PAC.
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And Scott predicted that “I think there are places where he’s going to continue to be very popular and to be of use.”
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