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Consumers could pay on average 15 to 20 cents more per gallon of unleaded gasoline by the end of the month, after the weekend attack that had put half of the production of Saudi Arabia offline, analysts said the oil sector.
A big price move in some resorts could happen in the next 48 hours, experts said Tuesday. In the United States, gas prices jumped 3 cents a gallon overnight and averaged $ 2.59 a gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA.
"It's not going to go crazy, but I think 15 to 20 cents will arrive before the end of the month." said Tom Kloza, head of global energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service. "It's going to happen very quickly because the margins of the retailers have been good all summer, and they've been cut in two or more by what happened yesterday.If you're a public retailer, like Murphy Costco or BJ, you had a difficult day yesterday, you literally lost 50% or more of your margins. "
The Brent, the international benchmark, rose 15% Monday, but traded 5% Tuesday at just over $ 65 a barrel, following a report from the US. Reuters agency according to which Saudi production could return quickly and that it was about to restore 70% of the lost supply. Futures contracts for gasoline rose, up 0.4% to $ 1.76 a gallon. If the blackout in Saudi Arabia is large or protracted, or in the event of military conflict, the price of oil and gasoline would increase.
"I'm not looking for $ 85, $ 90 or $ 100 worth of oil, unless the conflict gets worse," Kloza said.
Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNBC that he predicted that gasoline would exceed $ 2.70 a gallon in the next 10 days, and that Brent's decline recorded Tuesday's will not affect his predictions.
"It's still in my range of 15 to 25 cents at the pump," he said. Even if Saudi production returns, Brent should remain at a higher price as the success of the attack revealed a vulnerability and the risk of threats is greater. "There is a new geopolitical risk premium that integrates the market."
Kloza said that gasoline is delivered every day at some high-volume stations, and that they would be the first to see prices rise at wholesalers.
"Maybe we're getting $ 2.70 / $ 2.75 Generally, at this time of the year, from 2011 to 2014, we were paying $ 3.50 per gallon on average," Kloza said. "Crude oil was worth more than $ 100 a barrel for Brent, it lasted four years, you attended the Arab Spring and the Iranian sanctions were introduced, we had high-priced oil."
Prices are expected to increase in some places in the next few days. "When you have a virtual market, and wholesale is an adjustable rate … it's almost immediate that increases in the futures market translate into what you pay for our fuel in 48 hours," he said. -he declares.
The West Coast region, where gasoline is already well above the national average, is one of the most affected by rising gas prices.
"Probably more Saudi oil will be exported to the West Coast, but West Coast refiners have to compete with Chinese and Japanese for oil that is no longer debauched in the Pacific Ocean," Kloza said. . "I think it 's a lot more of a problem in the Pacific Ocean than a problem in the Atlantic Ocean, just because there' s a lot more Saudi oil that is destined for fast-growing Asian markets.Do not be surprised by the $ 4 gasoline in California. "
The average price of gasoline in California is $ 3.64 a gallon, and the average price is already $ 4 in Humboldt and San Luis Obispo.
Lipow said that Chinese imports of Saudi oil amounted to 1.3 million barrels a day and that of Japan to about 1.2 million barrels a day. The United States imports about 500,000 barrels a day of Saudi oil.
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