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Air New Zealand is a rather conservative airline with respect to its fleet and routes. Currently, Air New Zealand uses exclusively Airbus aircraft for its large fleet and Boeing aircraft for its large fleet.
At present, Air New Zealand's long-haul fleet consists of the following aircraft:
- 9 Boeing 777-200ER
- 8 Boeing 777-300ER
- 13 Boeing 787-9s (with an extra plane on order)
We have known for some time that Air New Zealand is planning to place a new order for widebody aircraft, as it will eventually have to refurbish its existing fleet.
Air New Zealand's long haul planes
The management of Air New Zealand has repeatedly said that the airline was trying to decide between Airbus and Boeing for the renewal of its long-haul fleet. With Airbus, they would consider the A350 (versions -900 or -1000) and with Boeing, the 787 or 777X.
In March, the chief financial officer of Air New Zealand said the airline was about to make a decision and he hoped to make an announcement within a few months.
Although nothing has been officially announced, Reuters cites sources according to which Air New Zealand is expected to announce a large aircraft order soon with Boeing, while the aircraft manufacturer beat his rival Airbus.
Do not get angry yet, because these planes will not join the Air New Zealand fleet any time soon. In the past, leaders said it would probably be 2023 at the earliest when the airline would get new planes.
Which aircraft from Boeing Air New Zealand is likely to order?
Although the Boeing order seems more or less safe, the big question is whether they will order 787s, 777s, or a combination of both.
Of the 787 variants, the 787-9 seems to be the most logical option. The 787-10 offers a higher capacity, but a lower range, and Air New Zealand needs this autonomy for many of its flights.
Could Air New Zealand also consider some 777Xs, which are larger in capacity, consume less fuel and have longer battery life than previous versions of the 777?
Air New Zealand executives have expressed the wish to fly non-stop to New York and Sao Paulo.
The 787-9 could easily reach Sao Paulo nonstop, while I think that New York would push the limits of autonomy on the 787-9 (while Perth-London is operated by the 787-9 and that's the only way it's going to be used). it is slightly longer, this road would be much harder winds on the westbound route). The 777X could easily make the trip.
I am, however, skeptical of Air New Zealand's order for the 777X. This does not mean that it will not happen, but the airline just looks very conservative and the 777X offers great capacity.
In terms of the number of O & D passengers, New York to Auckland is not a huge market. They can fly despite this, as their US line network is mainly based on flights to United hubs, as the airline currently serves Los Angeles, San Francisco, Houston and Chicago.
In this regard, Newark would be a logical addition, although I am not sure of the added value of this route in terms of matching traffic, as most connections via Newark could be routed via Chicago or Houston.
Bottom line
My money is on Air New Zealand, which wants to be conservative and just orders some 787-9 additional for the renewal of its fleet. We may see 787-10 aircraft, which would provide sufficient range for flights to Asia and Australia while increasing capacity.
It is also possible that they order 777X, although I am not confident about it yet.
Do you think Air New Zealand will order the 787 or the 777X?
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