Air travel was gaining ground. Now what?

Confidence in the evolving coronavirus pandemic has helped put passengers back on planes in recent months, and Thanksgiving week is shaping up to be one of the busiest times for air travel to the United States since that it almost stopped in the spring. News that effective vaccines may be at hand has raised stocks from airlines.

But new concerns over the spread of the virus are shaking travelers and threatening airline hopes for months to come.

United Airlines said on Thursday that bookings had slowed and cancellations had increased in recent days due to the surge in cases of the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged Americans to avoid vacation travel altogether, presenting the industry with its latest heartbreaking question: How dark can this winter get?

“Two trains are moving towards us,” said John Grant, senior analyst at OAG, an aviation data company based near London. “One is full of optimism about a vaccine, and the other is, unfortunately, full of more caution. Who gets there first? “

When Angela Henry booked her Thanksgiving flights months ago, she had no idea the United States would set new records for coronavirus infection as the holidays approach. She also didn’t know she would be pregnant.

Ms Henry, 30, and her husband were debating whether to stick to their plan of flying to Atlanta from Northern California to spend Thanksgiving with her family. After seeking the advice of relatives and healthcare professionals and weighing the risks, they recently decided to do so.

“It was difficult,” she says. “I was just trying to find that rational middle ground.”

Airlines say flying is generally safe due to the various policies put in place to limit contagion, high-end air filtration on planes and the relatively low number of published cases of the coronavirus spreading in flight. . But the science is far from settled, travelers are still at risk throughout their journey, and many would-be passengers have been put off by lockdowns and outbreaks in places they hoped to visit.

Passenger volumes remain down more than 60% from last year, and the industry is losing tens of millions of dollars a day.

Airlines for America, a group representing the nation’s largest carriers, said it expected more people to fly around Thanksgiving than in the weeks before or after, although it estimates the number of seats for sale will still be down about 40% from last year. . American Airlines said it plans to operate about 15% more flights during the holidays than the rest of the month. Delta Air Lines said it plans to carry around two million passengers during the holiday season, and United expects Thanksgiving week to be the busiest since the pandemic began, awarding protective measures against the spread of the virus which she said put passengers at ease.

“They see that the compliance of the mask is really good; they saw how clean the planes are; they may have even seen the electrostatic sprayers in action; they saw us board the plane with our backs to the front, they saw the social distancing on the jet bridge – all of this contributed to greater confidence in air travel, ”said Josh Earnest, director United communications.

Thanksgiving may improve the fortunes of the airline industry, but the outlook for passenger demand in the coming weeks is dim. Southwest Airlines said last week that booking dynamics appear to be slowing for the remainder of the year. American Airlines, which also saw decrease in demand due to virus, reduced December flights between the United States and Europe, leaving just two daily flights from Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport to London and Frankfurt.

To some extent, the uneven travel recovery is hardly surprising, said Helane Becker, managing director and senior airline analyst at Cowen.

“We always knew it would be choppy, but that said, we think people want to travel and are looking for ways out,” Becker said during a panel Thursday at the Skift Aviation Forum.

In Europe, the mood is much darker, with hopes of a recovery during the holiday season largely dashed by the surge in infections and lockdown measures reintroduced this month to curb the spread of the virus.

Ski resorts in the United States remain optimistic for winter travel, but those in France, Austria and Italy are closed until at least the end of November. Thousands of Christmas markets – which draw millions of visitors each year with mulled wine, roasted chestnuts and handmade Christmas gifts – have been canceled and Santa’s displays have gone live.

“Looking at the scenery across Europe now, we don’t have high expectations for the winter season,” said Eric Dresin, secretary general of the European Association of Travel Agents and Tour Operators. “We are in a situation where we cannot plan anything, which is naturally crippling for the industry.”

The European Union uses a traffic light system to determine travel restrictions, labeling countries and individual regions in green, orange or red, depending on the rate of new infections, testing rates and incidence for 100,000 inhabitants during the previous 14 days. Most Member States require travelers arriving from high-risk red zones to be tested for coronavirus or self-quarantine upon arrival. At the end of last week, all European countries were labeled in red except Norway and Finland.

Travel and airline associations across Europe are calling for coordinated testing and contact tracing protocols to replace general quarantine measures, arguing they are causing uncertainty and confusion among travelers and have a limited effect on the spread of the virus.

Elsbeth McGawley, a London restaurant manager, had to return to Britain from France in August to avoid a two-week quarantine requirement announced just 24 hours before it went into effect. She had six days left on her hotel reservation, but had to cancel because she couldn’t afford time off work due to quarantine.

“It was a nightmare trying to change my ticket and get it back in time,” she said in a phone interview. “I just wanted a little break, a change of scenery after being locked up at home for months, but it turned into an ordeal and it wasn’t worth it.

Ms McGawley usually books her Christmas trip to European cities a year in advance, but this year she has canceled her plans and decided to stay in Britain to avoid last-minute disappointment.

“It’s impossible to book even now, a month in advance,” she says. “There are restrictions everywhere, and even if a place opens, there is no way to know if it will stay that way. This is a big bet and not worth the risk as there is no guarantee that you will get a refund if things go wrong. “

Tour operators across Europe have said they have seen an increase in the number of people searching for winter vacation destinations in recent weeks, but few of those requests have turned into bookings due to uncertainty about travel restrictions. The absence of such stringent restrictions has ensured that travel to the United States continues to flow, but for how long is it assumed.

“It’s such a difficult situation for everyone right now,” said Mr. Grant of OAG, the aeronautical data company. “We’re all sitting here waiting to see how the next two weeks unfold, not only Thanksgiving, but the likely rates of Covid infection as well.”