All energy crises pale in comparison to Covid

LONDON – Oil and gas giant BP released its benchmark global energy statistical review on Thursday, describing 2020 ‘as a year like no other’ due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on energy global.

Over the past seven decades, BP has said it has witnessed some of the most dramatic episodes in the history of the world energy system, including the Suez Canal Crisis in 1956, the 1973 oil embargo, the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the Fukushima crisis. disaster in 2011.

“All the times of great turmoil in global energy,” Spencer Dale, chief economist at BP, said in the report. “But all pale compared to the events of the last year.”

To date, more than 185 million cases of Covid-19 have been reported worldwide, with more than 4 million deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The actual number of infections and deaths from Covid-19 is believed to be much higher – and continuing to rise.

The pandemic has also caused massive economic losses, with global GDP shrinking by around 3.3% last year. This represents the biggest peacetime recession since the Great Depression.

For global energy, the Covid pandemic has had a dramatic impact. Here are some of the highlights from the report:

BP said the coronavirus crisis last year caused primary energy and carbon emissions to drop at their fastest pace since World War II. The relentless expansion of renewables, however, has proven to be “relatively unscathed”, with solar power recording its fastest increase on record.

True, the oil and gas company said global energy demand had contracted by 4.5% and global carbon emissions from energy use by 6.3%.

“These drops are huge by historical standards – the biggest drops in energy demand and carbon emissions since World War II. Indeed, the drop of more than 2 Gt of CO2 means that carbon emissions last year have returned to levels last seen in 2011. ” said Dale.

“It is also striking that the carbon intensity of the energy mix – the average carbon emitted per unit of energy used – fell by 1.8%, one of the highest on record in the history of the post-war, ”he added.

For some, the decline in global carbon emissions briefly raised hopes of a “carbon peak”, although desires to limit global warming – and to achieve a crucial Paris agreement target – have been held up. deteriorate rapidly.

This comes even as politicians and business leaders publicly recognize the need to shift to a low-carbon society, with policymakers under increasing pressure to deliver on promises made under the Accord. Paris before this year’s COP26.

“There are worrying signs that the drop in carbon emissions induced by COVID last year will be short-lived as the global economy recovers and lockdowns are lifted,” said Bernard Looney, CEO of BP , in the report.

“The challenge is to achieve sustained and comparable year-over-year emission reductions without massively disrupting our livelihoods and our daily lives,” he added.

Oil demand fell the most in the United States, contracting by 2.3 million barrels, followed by the EU and India, to 1.5 million barrels and 480,000 barrels respectively.

BP said global oil production fell by 6.6 million barrels, with oil producer group OPEC accounting for two-thirds of the drop.

The price of international benchmark Brent crude was on average $ 41.84 in 2020, the energy giant said, its lowest level since 2004. The oil contract was last seen at $ 73.70. .

“Arguably the most important element of the energy system needed to address both aspects of the Paris Agreement – responding to the threat of climate change and supporting sustainable growth – is the need for rapid energy growth. renewable, ”BP’s Dale said in the report.

Renewable energy, including biofuels and non-hydropower, grew 9.7% in 2020, BP said. This was slower than the 10-year one-year average of 13.4%, but the increase in energy was similar to the increases seen in the years leading up to the pandemic.

Solar electricity has reached record levels, but it is wind that has proven to make the greatest contribution to the growth of renewables.

In terms of capacity, solar grew by 127 gigawatts in 2020, while wind grew by 111 gigawatts, nearly double its previous highest annual increase, BP said. “The main driver was China, which accounted for about half of the global increase in wind and solar capacity,” said Dale.

Reflecting on BP’s latest Annual Global Energy Statistical Review, Dale said, “The significance of the past 70 years becomes insignificant as we consider the challenges the energy system will face over the next 10, 20, 30 years. as the world strives for net zero. “