All the surprising ways of Giannis and Kawhi to define the Eastern Finale

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Does any of the big men's suits of Toronto dissuade Milwaukee from leaning a little more into these groups? The Raptors have written almost nothing about Gasol on Tobias Harris against Philly. It was quite shocking. Can he do damage against Mirotic or Ilyasova?

At the other extreme, Milwaukee is expected to play three of the four members of the Antetokounmpo / Mirotic / Ilyasova / Lopez quartet so that the Raptors can play their own great trio of Pascal Siakam, Ibaka and Gasol. Again, if Anunoby can not go and Powell shrinks, Toronto has to take a few minutes. Of course, some of Powell's best moments as Raptor were against Milwaukee in the playoffs two seasons ago.

Immovable object, unstoppable force, etc .: Kawhi Leonard

Oh baby. Let's do that! Leonard has recalled it in the playoffs and has re-emerged as a versatile destroyer.

He kept Antetokounmpo in only 31 possessions in three games – Leonard missed a defeat in Toronto – and Antetokounmpo only made three shots on those trips, according to NBA.com's match data. (This data does not tell 100% who started or ended a possession defending a particular player, but records the name of the player who kept it for the longest time. Second Spectrum paint the same picture: in a limited sample, Leonard depressed the scoring volume.)

These numbers are a ton noise. They may not matter. Antetokounmpo has mastered Leonard on at least two possessions:

Antetokounmpo was more and more comfortable at Al Horford as the semifinals of the conference continued. Can he feel Leonard in the same way?

Leonard may not be able to work as Antetokounmpo's main defender during the entire series and carry the kind of charge that he had to handle (sometimes sorry) against Philadelphia – including in Game 7 where he looked like the only Raptor who wanted to shoot.

But it's something that Toronto will do, maybe in a time of crisis, and it's easy to make twinnings work. Siakam can keep just about anyone.

Milwaukee has tools to move Leonard's Antetokounmpo away if that turns out to be problematic. They can use Antetokounmpo at one of the ends of a pick-and-roll and present in Toronto a bad choice: switch into disgusting inconsistencies or let Antetokounmpo lose in a spinning defense.

Siakam and Leonard will keep the Middleton-Giannis combination for most of the series, meaning they can trade the two-player game between Milwaukee's top players:

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The Bucks love to clear one side of the field for the Middleton-Antetokounmpo dance, so help the defenders slide around the court.

Milwaukee can rotate in less switchable pick-and-roll between Antetokounmpo and Bledsoe.

If the Raptors have Danny Green on Bledsoe – and they will do it for stretching – they can reverse that action, hold their noses and live with Green on Antetokounmpo. (Live could be optimistic, though.)

Milwaukee can complicate things by having both Antetokounmpo and Bledsoe on the screen for Middleton. Good luck navigating this labyrinth:

Antetokounmpo will chase the smaller players from Toronto. If these players are on Brogdon or Mirotic, Milwaukee will oppose Antetokounmpo to one of them. Kyle Lowry is a 6 foot fire mouth with limbs, but Antetokounmpo will know it very quickly.

The real first option: Pascal Siakam

Siakam attracted the vast majority of Antetokounmpo's regular season games, while Leonard focused on Middleton. There is something for both teams living with their second choice to defend the opposing superstar if it means spraying option # 2.

Siakam has the Horfordian outlines of a defender who can at least make Antetokounmpo sweat, though he's not as sturdy. Even as Pascal Siakam's current train driver, now closed, I must admit that Antetokounmpo seemed rather comfortable going to Spicy P. If Antetokounmpo breaks out too easily at the rim, Toronto is in trouble. They will either have to live with, help the shooters who have punished that help all season (Bledsoe's pointer is still an indicator), overtax Leonard, overburden Ibaka, or throw the game in another way.

They may be able to thread the help and recovery needle. Toronto's changing defense is fierce, fast and smart. He turns with the ball – not behind. But no one has yet had an answer for Antetokounmpo. It may take a super-human effort in both directions of Leonard.

When Toronto gets the ball: Keep Kawhi Leonard

Unlike GoT guys, Mike Budenholzer is not a fan fan: Khris Middleton

This seems to be bad for Milwaukee. Leonard has size, strength and athleticism in Middleton.

But Middleton handled the job well. Middleton seems to have Leonard's rhythm. Both types of play follow the same methodical rhythm. Middleton was successful in forcing Leonard to leave the picks – a must, since Lopez will stay in the painting. If Leonard arrives from the other side of a Gasol peak with room behind him, he can let himself escape from the depths.

Middleton did well to stay on Leonard's hip and channel him to the mid-range. Yes, it's the right place for Leonard. The Bucks make fun of it. They will live with long 2 contested points of Leonard. They do not think that a player can beat them that way. They are probably right.

Expect Lopez to start on Gasol, even though his very casual style would seem to give the advantage of three open points for both Gasol (on the pick-and-pop) and Toronto star ball players. . The Sixers withdrew Joel Embiid from Gasol for this very reason and hid it in Siakam. Why would not Milwaukee copy that, not stick to Lopez on Siakam and have some sort of rank (probably Antetokounmpo) to clear the attack on the Gasol coup?

They will not do it unless they have to, and the bet is that they will not be. They have not reversed the confrontations in this way for the Kyrie Irving / Horford pick-and-roll, and this partnership probably has more immediate "3 points in!" danger to Lopez's style of defense than any other duo in Toronto.

Lowry and Leonard can pitch 3 on the go, but that's not their first choice. Leonard wants to sink into the mediums. A large number of Lowry quick-release and high-wire cables 3 enter the tractions in transition and leave the beaten track in the half-court. (Lowry will have to take and make some floats for the Raptors to win this series and VanVleet needs to locate his rider.)

It might be better for the Raptors to play Leonard against Middleton. Perhaps Leonard could get close to the rim bulldozing, ask for help and unlock a kickout 3.

Gasol and Ibaka could play higher, so Leonard and Lowry have room to dribble their pace before throwing the 3s.

Another idea: Slingshot Leonard on the screens of Gasol, so that he goes full speed with the airspace behind him when he recovers the ball. They could start Leonard in a corner and take him off a screen of Lowry before his arrival in Gasol. If this first choice of Lowry produces a switch, it's even better; raptors have a shift.

But there is another major reason why Milwaukee may not be afraid of Lopez-on-Gasol: Gasol is a shooter even more reluctant than Horford. The scheme of the Bucks is a game of the mind. They bet that most big men simply do not want to get all the looks that Milwaukee could offer. These fat ones get nervous. They feel guilty. I'm just supposed to keep shooting? But I am a center! Is not it selfish? I'm just going to get a dribble transfer.

Lopez is better than you think to gather the ball players and come back heavily to his man. He has good timing. It can go out to 3 point bow if needed. He will turn to Lowry and Leonard in case of emergency and will bet on the other Bucks swarming in front of the smaller shooters in Toronto. (It worked against Irving and Boston, Toronto will generally shoot better.)

This configuration leaves Antetokounmpo on Siakam – the worst long-range shooter in Toronto's starter squad. (Siakam shot 42% on turns 3, but only 17 out of 63 on longer triples over the break.) Antetokounmpo can roll over, and no one covers so much territory so quickly. Antetokounmpo is a defender of devastating and demoralizing help – a long-armed ghost who is everywhere at once. He can help and come back in time to challenge Siakam's corner. He is the best rim protector from Milwaukee and the Bucks prefer to keep him in positions where he can do it.

He should be able to engulf Siakam's eye-catching isolation game. You may notice that Siakam averaged 24 points per game against Milwaukee on a 64% shot. Just.

Count me as a skeptic. He did a lot of this damage against Ilyasova and other Bucks who should not spend more time keeping it now, both with the NBA.com match tool and with Second Spectrum. He shot well on Antetokounmpo, but not often. (Siakam scored 11 out of 17 baskets out of a total of 116 possessions with Antetokounmpo as the lead defender, according to NBA.com.) He shot 19 shots at Ilyasova on just 60 possessions – again: this data is far from perfect. .)

Siakam is good, but Antetokounmpo can handle it. I like the idea of ​​using Antetokounmpo to eliminate Siakam from the series as scorer.

Siakam is not afraid of anything. He does not suffer the insightful hesitations that hit Lowry and Gasol – snobs of basketball in the strict sense of the term, whose compound snobbery can nevertheless play against the Raptors. Forcing those two to take part of Siakam's firing volume, and they may be wary of – and erasing Toronto's offensive. The disadvantage is that they could go insane and shoot, continue to shoot and bury the bucks under open riders. Milwaukee should adapt or just tighten.

OK, but if it does not work? Do we have the Kawhi-Giannis Bowl?

If Leonard brutalizes Middleton, things get very interesting. Antetokounmpo is perhaps the ideal defender for Leonard – he is the ideal defender for most players – and he could have more than Leonard in the tank; Antetokounmpo has only played nine games in the last 37 days. It would not be difficult for Milwaukee to tip the clashes so that Antetokounmpo defended Leonard.

Would they do it in a position of strength, or in a position of weakness – by will or necessity?

Each good series forces a team to contort. Antetokounmpo will take turns in both Leonard and Gasol.

Antetokounmpo-on-Gasol may well be Milwaukee's main tactic when they play small ball alignments with Antetokounmpo and Mirotic as the front center and center of the power rating; these are (fundamentally) the only circumstances in which Antetokounmpo defended Horford. Milwaukee in those minutes may give up his basic defense and engage the switching mode.

Watch out: Malcolm Brogdon

A healthy Brogdon takes Milwaukee to another level. Brogdon is a legitimate 40 point shooter with 40% points, and probably the best driver to conquer Milwaukee.