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The death toll in the country since the start of the pandemic is now more than 263,000 people. And nearly 60,000 more could lose their lives over the next three weeks, according to an ensemble forecast released this week by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
An expert told CNN on Wednesday evening that the number of daily deaths is likely to double in the next ten days.
“So we’re going to see almost 4,000 deaths a day, which will kill you another 60,000 in just about 20 days,” said Dr. Jonathan Reiner, professor of medicine at George Washington University.
“In a week, more likely two weeks, we will see a surge,” said Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University on Wednesday. “We are going through a difficult time.”
In other words, the projections for the coming weeks are grim. But that doesn’t mean it’s too late to start changing things.
“If we all got together, wore the masks and did the social distancing, we could bend that curve in two or three weeks,” Schaffner said. “We would actually see transmission decrease even before we had access to vaccines.”
What it would take to turn the tide
While a potential vaccine candidate may soon get the green light, the widespread effects of a vaccine are still months away. But Americans have valuable tools that can help them in the meantime.
These are the public safety measures that have been touted by officials for months – face masks, social distancing, avoiding crowds and practicing good hygiene like regular hand washing.
Meanwhile, in West Virginia, Gov. Jim Justice has pleaded with residents in recent weeks to cover their faces, saying the masks are “really the only bullet in the gun.”
“If you are embarrassed, if you don’t believe it, please wear it … what’s the downside,” Justice said at a press conference this week. “Look, we’re not the type to take anybody’s rights. My good Lord, I understand with all my heart, we don’t want to do this in any way. But you have to help me.
It’s the kind of message that needs to be echoed by local leaders across the country, Dr Peter Hotez, dean of tropical medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told CNN Thursday morning.
“Keep saying it every day and hope some people start to believe it. That’s our only hope at this point. We need to limit these outbreaks and we need these local leaders to really step up, so it’s absolutely vital, “he said.
This is the only option that could help keep more people alive until a vaccine is given, he said.
“It’s about keeping your mother, your father, your brother, your sister alive until then,” Hotez added. “If we could just get these messages across.”
Florida extends ban on cities imposing mask warrants
But in many parts of the United States, masks remain a point of contention.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis this week extended an order barring local municipalities from issuing fines for violating pandemic-related warrants – like mask warrants – or limiting restaurant capacity without justification.
“It is deeply frustrating that @GovRonDeSantis continues to block local actions and make it harder for local leaders to keep our communities safe,” Cava wrote.
“I ask the governor to work with the local mayors so that we can bring our local knowledge to the table,” Cava added. “We need to work together to create policies that will protect all of our families and our economy at this time of crisis.
In the past week, Florida reported more than 56,400 new infections and more than 520 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
CNN has reached out to DeSantis’ office for comment.
Only 1 in 8 American Covid-19 cases may have been counted
In total, more than 12.8 million Americans have tested positive for the virus since the start of the pandemic. But a new study suggests that may only represent a small fraction of the actual number of infections in the United States.
Only about one in eight – or 13% – all Covid-19 infections in the country have been recognized and reported until the end of September, according to CDC estimates. This means that up to 53 million people in the United States could have been infected from February to September – but during that time only around 7 million confirmed cases of symptomatic Covid-19 were reported nationwide, have noted the researchers.
To estimate the number of Covid-19 cases that may have been missed since the start of the pandemic, researchers used a model to adjust the number of symptomatic cases reported in the United States. They took into account what is known about case detection, asymptomatic infections, patients seeking care or not, and the risk of false negatives.
The limitations of the study included the fact that the availability and use of the tests changed over time and their results are only used as estimates.
While the numbers may seem large, the researchers wrote that, “It still indicates that about 84% of the U.S. population has not yet been infected and therefore most of the country remains at risk, despite high rates of infection. ‘hospitalization already high “.
CNN’s Ben Tinker, Evan Simko-Bednarski, Jacqueline Howard, Melissa Alonso, Amanda Watts and Lauren Mascaren contributed to this report.
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