American coronavirus: United States could be fooled into improving Covid-19 figures, experts say as tens of thousands of Americans are expected to die by July

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“I think we’re going to be fooled,” said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia on Thursday. “I think what’s going to happen is you’re going to see that as we move into the summer months the numbers are going to go down, people will think okay, we’re good.”

He added: “And then if we fail to achieve what I think is at least 80% immunity of the population against natural infections or vaccination, when winter comes you are going to see a new surge. . “

Over the past seven days, the United States has recorded an average of 56,240 new cases per day – the lowest since mid-October – and 1,437 deaths per day, the lowest the country has seen since 19 November.

Still, many states have started to relax measures, including mask warrants. And due to fewer masks and more people moving with more communicable variants, the IHME has increased its prediction of Covid-19 deaths by July 1 by an additional 22,000 people.

Overall, the IHME predicts nearly 600,000 Covid-19-related deaths as of July 1, compared to the current number of around 530,000 recorded deaths.

What the United States does next could impact the trajectory of the pandemic, Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in an interview with NBC Nightly News.

“I think March and April are such important and critical times,” she said. “On the one hand, you have this hyper-transmissible virus that could lead to another flare-up after spring break.

“On the other hand, we are ramping up the vaccinations very quickly, and what we really want to do is just give these vaccines a chance to fight and not let this virus reappear.”

Christy Hylton, vice president of the church board, prepares to set up a paper heart in One United Church of Christ in Kenhorst, Pa., To represent every 1,000 deaths from Covid-19 in the state on March 3 2021.

“ We must be humble with this virus ”

For those who are vaccinated, the CDC released new guidelines on Monday, maintaining the travel recommendations for those who have been vaccinated.

Some wondered if the guidelines were too strict.

“We have to be humble with this virus,” Walensky said in an interview with NBC Nightly News. “Every time we felt like we were in control, we had a huge push.”

Once new people are vaccinated and the number of cases decreases, the CDC may revise its guidelines, Walensky said.

A year after much of the country was shut down by the virus, more than 98 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines have been administered in the United States, according to CDC data released Thursday.

About 1 in 10 people in the United States – about 33.9 million people – are fully vaccinated, and nearly 1 in 5 people – over 64 million – have received a dose.

In an address Thursday, President Joe Biden pledged that vaccine appointments would be open to all American adults by May 1, and that by July 4, the United States could celebrate its independence from the pandemic.

“If July 4th is coming and your family has been vaccinated and your neighbors across the street have been vaccinated, yes, you can absolutely get together for a barbecue,” Dr Jonathan Reiner told CNN’s Don Lemon on Thursday.

“Getting gunshots in the arm isn’t just the ticket for vaccination, it’s the ticket to bring people back to offices, to open cinemas, to fill parks with bullets, to bring back people. people on planes, ”he said.

Turning attention to ‘long Covid’

But even if the spread of the virus is managed in the United States in the coming months, the nation will still be grappling with Covid-19 survivors who are suffering the effects of the disease long after becoming infected, Dr Ashish said. Jha, Dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University.
“We know that 525,000 of our fellow Americans have died, but we also know that tens of millions of people have been infected, have not died, fortunately, and have recovered. But I want to know what the long-lasting effects are. term for these people, ”Jha told CNN’s Erin Burnett.

“I’m afraid we really see the tip of the iceberg when we think about Covid long, that there will be a lot of handicap, a lot of suffering that is going to be with us for a long time,” Jha said. . “I hope that’s not true. But that’s what worries me, and I would like to understand this better.”

A recent study found that 30% of people with Covid-19 continue to show symptoms for up to nine months after the initial infection, and the National Institutes of Health launched a billion-dollar research effort to study long-term health effects.

CNN’s Christopher Rios, Brandon Miller, Lauren Mascarenhas, Ryan Prior and Deidre McPhillips contributed to this report.

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