An influenza pandemic is unpredictable and inevitable: the WHO

Influenza (influenza), which was pandemic in 2009 and had 1-4 lakh deaths, remains a source of global concern. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 1 billion cases occur each year worldwide, causing about 2 to 6 lakh deaths.

In publishing the new global strategy (2019-2030), WHO warned that it was almost impossible to predict when the next pandemic could occur. "Although it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic may occur, its occurrence is inevitable and may well occur during the period covered by this strategy. Given the intensification of economic globalization, urbanization and mobility, the next pandemic will spread faster and faster and could lead to major disruptions. "

According to FluNet, the laboratories of the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance System (GISRS) analyzed more than 2.20 347 samples between February 4, 2019 and February 17, 2019. Of this total, 74,302 were tested positive for the influenza virus – 73,225 (98.6%). ) were cases of influenza A and 1,077 (1.4%) were cases of influenza B.

Of the influenza A virus subtypes, 19,600 (65.2%) were influenza A (H1N1) viruses and 10,447 (34.8%) were influenza A (H3N2) viruses. Infection with influenza A H3N2 was more serious than influenza A H1N1 or B in terms of fever, leukopenia or white blood cell deficiency and C-reactive protein – a quantity that measures the degree of inflammation (infection ) in the blood. The higher the amount of C-reactive protein, the greater the infection.

According to FluNet, for India, influenza A (H1N1) is the cause of most cases – culminating in the third week of February 2019.

The report states that vaccination is the most effective tool for creating immunity against the disease, but that vaccine distribution remains extremely asymmetrical. "Recent data show that 47% of the world's population (ie residents of countries in the WHO region of the Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asia and the Middle East) are living in the eastern part of the world. Africa) received only 5% of the vaccines distributed, "the report says.

He also points out that the current technology used for vaccine production takes about five to six months. In the event of a pandemic, as was the case in 2009, this was a major challenge because demand far exceeded supply.

"This underscores the need to diversify and optimize current production capabilities and technologies (cell-based, recombinant and adjuvanted vaccines) and to look for new vaccines offering stronger, broader and more sustainable protection." , and can be produced more quickly, "said the report.

Antiviral drugs – which, according to WHO, is the second most important intervention – are also missing. Current use of antiviral drugs for the treatment of seasonal influenza is low worldwide, limiting current availability and peak capacity.

As was demonstrated during the 2009 pandemic, when the WHO launched the dispatch of 2.4 million antivirals in 72 countries less than a month after the declaration, the antivirals play a leading role during a pandemic, especially during the first few months.

Even the epidemiological surveillance of influenza has to increase. "The number of Member States sharing information on influenza viruses with the WHO GISR system has risen to 130 in 2017. Although the number of Member States sharing laboratory and epidemiological data increased, 31% and 58% of Member States did not systematically share FluNet and FluID (global data sharing platforms) in 2016-2017, "says the report.

"Some countries still do not have the capacity to detect new influenza viruses, a key element of the main capabilities of the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). Improvements in the timely and timely sharing of data and viruses are needed for accurate and ongoing risk assessment of pandemic influenza viruses, "he adds.

As part of the new strategy, WHO has announced multi-pronged initiatives. One of them is the expansion of influenza prevention and control policies. To achieve this goal, WHO proposes to implement evidence-based immunization and treatment policies and to assist countries in developing national seasonal vaccination policies.

He also talks about integrating what he calls non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) into prevention and control programs. NPIs include educating people about personal initiatives such as better hand washing, using masks, etc.

The new strategy also calls on Member States to strengthen pandemic preparedness. He asked countries to strengthen research in three areas: innovative diagnostics, prevention methods, as well as understanding the characteristics of the virus and host factors that induce the impact of influenza.

For the implementation of various strategies, the report identifies five key "catalysts". At the center are countries, followed by global influenza resources and strategies, such as GISRS, etc., industry and civil society groups, global partnerships, and WHO, which ensures that all efforts are effective.